Will Parker

We rely on that atmosphere to basically reduce the energy from our satellites so that they spiral towards the Earth and eventually deorbit. So we need that cleaning force. If we don't have that force, then we would have these things in space forever. That is catastrophic to the environment, right? We have no way to remove the old junk so that we can have stuff to do in the future.

So we built on some previous studies that have started to show that while we see a significant warming effect from greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere, we actually see pretty significant cooling and contraction in the upper atmosphere. And so that's caused by two things.

So we built on some previous studies that have started to show that while we see a significant warming effect from greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere, we actually see pretty significant cooling and contraction in the upper atmosphere. And so that's caused by two things.

One of them is that the greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere trap heat close to the surface of the Earth and prevent it from reaching the upper atmosphere. And the heat that does make its way into the upper atmosphere is emitted more easily into space. So those two mechanisms together mean that we're seeing a cooling effect in the upper atmosphere where most of our satellites are operating.

One of them is that the greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere trap heat close to the surface of the Earth and prevent it from reaching the upper atmosphere. And the heat that does make its way into the upper atmosphere is emitted more easily into space. So those two mechanisms together mean that we're seeing a cooling effect in the upper atmosphere where most of our satellites are operating.

And because of that cooling effect, we're seeing that the entire atmosphere is contracting. So it's retreating away from low Earth orbit where we rely on that atmosphere for drag on our satellites. The effect of that retreat, that shrinking of the atmosphere, is that it's not doing as good a job at cleaning out low Earth orbit.

And because of that cooling effect, we're seeing that the entire atmosphere is contracting. So it's retreating away from low Earth orbit where we rely on that atmosphere for drag on our satellites. The effect of that retreat, that shrinking of the atmosphere, is that it's not doing as good a job at cleaning out low Earth orbit.

And again, we rely on that cleaning force because we have no other way to remove most of this debris. So the danger and the thing that we found is that it actually reduces the number of satellites that we can sustainably operate in low Earth orbit because we don't have this cleaning force.

And again, we rely on that cleaning force because we have no other way to remove most of this debris. So the danger and the thing that we found is that it actually reduces the number of satellites that we can sustainably operate in low Earth orbit because we don't have this cleaning force.

So if there's a collision or an explosion, anything that's going to cause debris in low Earth orbit, the consequence of that event is getting much greater over time because it'll take a lot longer to clean it up.

So if there's a collision or an explosion, anything that's going to cause debris in low Earth orbit, the consequence of that event is getting much greater over time because it'll take a lot longer to clean it up.

So the Kessler syndrome is always a concern, right? This runaway growth in the debris population. It's something that we take a lot of care to prevent. It's important that we're able to model these scenarios and understand how our actions in terms of how we populate space and how satellite operators are acting impact this long-term sustainability.

So the Kessler syndrome is always a concern, right? This runaway growth in the debris population. It's something that we take a lot of care to prevent. It's important that we're able to model these scenarios and understand how our actions in terms of how we populate space and how satellite operators are acting impact this long-term sustainability.

Because once this cascading debris generation starts, there's no way to stop it. And once space is cluttered, it can stay cluttered for decades or longer. because it'll close off key routes to space. Today, satellite operators are avoiding collisions by performing maneuvers.

Because once this cascading debris generation starts, there's no way to stop it. And once space is cluttered, it can stay cluttered for decades or longer. because it'll close off key routes to space. Today, satellite operators are avoiding collisions by performing maneuvers.

So back in the 80s, 90s, early 2000s, we sort of came up with these strategies for how we would avoid collisions between satellites. But back then, we, again, just figured that space was big. So it was mostly just an academic exercise. Today, that is not the case. It is fully operational. The Starlink Constellation did over 100,000 collision avoidance maneuvers last year.

So back in the 80s, 90s, early 2000s, we sort of came up with these strategies for how we would avoid collisions between satellites. But back then, we, again, just figured that space was big. So it was mostly just an academic exercise. Today, that is not the case. It is fully operational. The Starlink Constellation did over 100,000 collision avoidance maneuvers last year.

So it's something that is very much used in practice by necessity, right? We need to avoid debris objects and other satellites because it is getting so congested in space. And that's making it more difficult to operate spacecraft there.

So it's something that is very much used in practice by necessity, right? We need to avoid debris objects and other satellites because it is getting so congested in space. And that's making it more difficult to operate spacecraft there.

Well, our study went to 2100 and we saw that relative to the year 2000, we're seeing in the worst case scenario, at least a reduction of 50% in our carrying capacity, the number of satellites that we can sustain. It depends, right? The point of the study is to be able to show that we have a lot of levers at our control to be able to manage the space debris problem.