Zaid
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
So let's talk about that.
Up until this point, I've just been hyping up Walmart.
So let's talk about what could go wrong because there are some risks.
First up, you have tariffs and economic uncertainty.
Roughly a third of the products that Walmart sells in the US are made or grown internationally, mainly in China and Mexico.
And while Walmart has incredible leverage to shift the burden of tariffs onto its suppliers, it's still a very fluid situation.
Like as I'm recording this, the Supreme Court struck down some of President Trump's tariffs.
But in a press conference earlier today, he said he plans to impose other tariffs to make up for the ones that were struck down by the Supreme Court.
So again, all that's going to add uncertainty to Walmart's business.
And the other uncertainty is the CEO transition.
Doug McMillan stepped down as CEO on February 1st and handed the keys to John Ferner.
Now, Ferner is an experienced guy and he spent over three decades at Walmart, most recently running the US division, but he has big shoes to fill to make sure that Walmart carries this momentum into the next era while also navigating the constantly changing tariff landscape.
So he's kind of stepping into a tough spot right now.
The biggest risk that I see for Walmart, though, as an investor is their valuation.
Walmart is currently trading at 42 times forward earnings, which is the highest multiple ever for them, and even higher than fast-growing tech companies like Nvidia and Google, which have a forward PE of 27 right now.
you can make the case that Walmart at its core is just a retailer only growing revenues at 5% a year.
So there might not be much upside left in the stock at its current valuation.
So what's my take?
Well, you guys might not believe me, but I was an early believer in Walmart.
Now, once they started embracing technology a few years ago and I saw the improvements to their app and their e-commerce offerings, I became an investor.