Zanny Minton-Beddoes

It's clearly ahead in AI.

It has all of the ingredients for being an extremely prosperous country.

That can also deal with its very real challenges and one we've hardly talked about, but the budget deficit and the debt problem are all dealable with if you have economic growth and rational policymakers.

Now, I'm not sure how much faith I put in that, but that's my upbeat scenario.

The negative one depends how dark you want me to get.

I think that if you have continued protectionism, high tariffs, continued immigration restriction, a growing overvaluation in the stock market, which is ever more reliant on a frenzy in a few big tech companies.

An administration that wants to punish its critics, that wants to use the tools of economic policy to punish its critics, whether it is to push around the Fed or whether it is to go after companies that it doesn't like.

Then you are systematically, I think, undermining the pillars that have made the American economy strong.

And, you know, things could unravel quite quickly.

And, you know, things like the U.S.

right now, because it has the dollar, the world's reserve currency, because it's the biggest, strongest economy in the world, I think there is a kind of presumption often in the U.S.

that it must always be this way.

And that's not necessarily the case.

Foreigners could take fright.

They could leave dollar assets.

The dollar could tumble further.

Interest rates could rise.

The U.S.

could suddenly become much less productive and a much tougher place and a much worse place for ordinary American workers who've already had, many of whom have already had quite a tough time.

So you can paint a pretty grim picture if you put your mind to it.