The Global Power Shift No One Is Talking About – And Who’s Driving It (#301)
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What is the real power shift happening in global geopolitics?
Most people think the world is split between two camps, the United States and China. But a growing number of countries are doing something very different, working with both sides at the same time. So the big question is, in a world where the superpowers are competing, are these middle countries quietly gaining influence? And could they end up shaping the next global order? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Richard Fontaine.
Richard is one of the leading voices on US strategy and global geopolitics.
How is China's economic influence changing global trade relationships?
He's the CEO of the Center for New American Security and has spent years at the center of US foreign policy debates. serving on Capitol Hill, advising senior officials, and writing widely on how the international order is shifting. Welcome, Richard, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.
Thank you. It's great to be here.
Most people assume Brazil's biggest economic partner is the United States. It isn't. It's China. How did that happen?
China's economic gravity has continued to grow over the decades.
What role do middle countries play in shaping the next global order?
And we're in this strange phenomenon now where China is the top trade partner of most countries in the Western Hemisphere. That, of course, was the United States for a very, very long time. It's a reflection both of China's appetite for inputs, especially raw materials, the likes of which come from countries like Brazil. And its exports, particularly of lower cost and increasingly somewhat higher cost manufactured goods, which are exported to countries throughout the hemisphere. And so you have a real rewiring of the top trade relationships between countries like Brazil compared to the way it used to be.
And it's not just Brazil, it's other countries in South America as well.
China is the number one trade partner of most countries in the Western Hemisphere. Most countries in Latin America, I mean, virtually every country in Latin America. And I mean, this is also true in other regions of the world. It's the top trade partner of most countries in Southeast Asia.
How does India manage its relationship with China amid tensions?
It's the top trade partner with a lot of countries around the world, including countries that sometimes consider themselves skeptical of Chinese geopolitical intentions or at least at a minimum non-aligned with China, but nevertheless have a deeply intertwined economic relationship.
It's so shocking, I think, to most people. China and Brazil are even talking about a railroad across South America from Brazil's Atlantic coast all the way to the Pacific coast. What does that tell us about the relationship between Brazil and China?
Well, one, it shows how interested countries are and how forthcoming China has been, particularly in infrastructure building in different places. I mean, one can travel in Latin America, in Africa, in Southeast Asia, in lots of the so-called global south, and see Chinese infrastructure projects literally all over the place. Buildings here, bridges there, railroads here, ports there. And for China, there's economic and sometimes geopolitical advantages to these kinds of projects and countries that wish to upgrade their infrastructure, build it where they haven't before, find it attractive to have potentially low cost financing for those kinds of projects.
And even India, which has border clashes with China and decades of tension, but trade between the two countries keeps climbing. How does India pull off that balancing act?
What does partnering with China look like for developing countries?
carefully. India had to manage its tricky relationship with China even before 1962 and everything that happened that year between the two countries. And so has become practiced over the years at maintaining a robust economic relationship with China. But nevertheless, it has its limits. So, for example, India banned Chinese apps like TikTok and other things way before other countries really even thought about it.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the real power shift happening in global geopolitics?
0:01–1:04
2
How is China's economic influence changing global trade relationships?
1:04–1:43
3
What role do middle countries play in shaping the next global order?
1:43–2:40
4
How does India manage its relationship with China amid tensions?
2:40–4:14
5
What does partnering with China look like for developing countries?
4:14–5:05
6
How do countries balance their dependencies on the US and China?
5:05–6:03
7
What are the implications of swing countries pushing back against superpowers?
6:03–7:23
8
What should be the US's foreign policy priorities regarding global swing states?
7:23–19:47