Will the U.S. LOSE the AI Race to China? – Helen Toner, ex OpenAI Board Member

Is the U.S. LOSING the AI race to China?China and the U.S. are neck and neck in the AI race for global dominance. Former OpenAI board member Helen Toner (now at Georgetown’s CSET) joins us in Washington, D.C. to break down China vs U.S. strategies—open-source diffusion vs big tech global dominance— and what “winning” actually means.Helen has recently spent time in China and works at the center of U.S. AI policy—offering a rare inside view of both ecosystems and who’s truly ahead.Helen explains: - Who’s ahead right now and how to measure it (frontier AI vs adoption/diffusion)- Open-source vs closed: DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi, Gemma, Llama vs OpenAI, Anthropic, Google- Compute & chips: NVIDIA dependence, export controls, and why compute concentration matters- AGI timelines: whether “AI 2027” holds up and why short timelines cooled after GPT-5- “AI+” strategy: applying AI to manufacturing, healthcare, and finance vs pure frontier bragging rights- What governments should do now: transparency, auditing, AI literacy, and measurement scienceWho do you think is winning and WHY – China or the U.S.? Drop one evidence-backed reason (links welcome). We’ll pin the best reply. Don’t forget to like and subscribe for more unfiltered conversations on AI, tech, and society.Chapters00:00 – Two strategies, one AI race01:00 – Open-source China vs Big-Tech USA03:37 – Not one race: choose your finish line04:04 – Who’s actually open? DeepSeek, Qwen/Kimi, Llama, Gemma, GPT-OSS06:26 – Frontier bragging rights vs real-world adoption07:46 – China’s “AI Plus” play (AI + industry)10:06 – Is the US still ahead at the frontier?12:04 – GPT-5 reality check & AGI timelines20:58 – Compute decides: chips, export controls, auto-ML engineers23:04 – What we need now: transparency, audits, AI literacy28:02 – Standards in practice: de-facto beats de-jure30:56 – Next 5 years: closed peaks, open bow wave37:55 – Final take: which path wins?#OpenAI #HelenToner #ai #GPT5 #OpenSource #podcast #China #DeepSeek

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