Ep46:Unpacking Japan's Economic Crossroads

The discussion explores the Japanese government's efforts to stimulate investment through the NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account) and the newly introduced 新 NISA (new NISA). Despite these initiatives, a significant portion of Japanese individual investors favor investing in US stocks, particularly the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500. This preference is attributed to lingering memories of the Japanese asset price bubble burst in the 1990s and the benefits of investing in appreciating US dollar assets due to the weakening yen. Interestingly, younger Japanese individuals in their 20s and 30s seem less engaged in financial investment compared to older generations.The podcast touches upon wage increases observed in Japan (around 5% based on "春鬥"), but questions whether these increases are keeping pace with the current rate of inflation. This economic pressure potentially affects service quality, as service workers may feel undervalued.The impact of overtourism on Japan, especially in popular destinations like Kyoto, is also examined. While tourism is acknowledged as crucial for the current Japanese economy, it creates significant disruptions for local residents.Labor shortages and immigration are highlighted as critical challenges. Despite a declining native-born population, Japan grapples with openly discussing and implementing large-scale immigration policies due to its culturally conservative nature. The "technical intern training" program is mentioned as a way Japan quietly addresses labor needs. The discussion points out that some Japanese companies are choosing between hiring Burmese laborers and adopting robotics to address labor shortages in sectors like logistics.The episode also sheds light on the revival of certain Japanese industries, such as semiconductors (linked to TSMC's investment in Kumamoto) and shipbuilding. This resurgence is potentially driven by geopolitical factorsand the restructuring of global supply chains. The establishment of TSMC in Kumamoto is already impacting the local economy, leading to increased wages and the development of supporting businesses.Warren Buffett's strategic investments in Japanese trading companies (商社) are analyzed. The rationale behind this move is suggested to be low borrowing costs in Japan, investment in upstream resources, and a strategic positioning for a potential era of deglobalization.The hosts briefly discuss Japan's historically strong industrial policy guided by government bureaucracy and its potential limitations in fostering innovation compared to more liberal approaches seen elsewhere. A trend of declining entrepreneurship among young Japanese, who often prefer stable employment in large corporations like 商社, is also noted.

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