All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory
Sat, 23 Nov 2024
(0:00) Bestie intros! (1:54) Breaking down the DOGE roadmap (24:28) Milei's impact, DOGE's tight timeline, impact on GDP growth, "default sustainable," how to communicate DOGE (48:11) WW3 risk: Biden's recent escalation (1:00:43) Science Corner: Fat cells can remember being fat! Get tickets for The All-In Holiday Spectacular!: https://allin.ticketsauce.com/e/all-in-holiday-spectacular Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/musk-and-ramaswamy-the-doge-plan-to-reform-government-supreme-court-guidance-end-executive-power-grab-fa51c020 https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1859364239229821022 https://x.com/sfliberty/status/1858936359949304105 https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1859946626271388068 https://x.com/realdogenews/status/1859233043686334791 https://x.com/popeye31jc/status/1859233598328492360 https://x.com/MattForVA/status/1859248996377612755 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1858258226199818595 https://x.com/Pismo_B/status/1858018620456186221 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/31/world/europe/russia-gains-ukraine-maps.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/17/politics/biden-authorizes-ukraine-missiles-russian-targets/index.html https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08165-7 https://x.com/bryan_johnson/status/1860022160833806646
Chapter 1: What is the main topic of this episode?
Jamal, do you hear that Freeberg got busted looking at porn on his computer?
No, I did not. You got busted looking at porn? You want to know what it was? Yeah.
It was Elon of a Vakes Wall Street Journal op-ed.
I lost it.
Oh, man. I lost it. It was too good. I think he was pleasuring himself to that outfit.
He was playing his skin flute. What happened? You had to go for a quick game of pocket pool. How'd you ride it? Oh, my God.
It was too exciting. You were beating the bishop. Allison came in and just like wondering what was going on.
She grabbed my computer and she looked at it and it was an essay.
Let your winners ride.
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Chapter 2: What does the DOGE roadmap entail?
So by resolving both the inefficiency, reducing the bureaucracy, stopping the wasteful spending, having accountability in the government, we can actually get the United States another 50 years, 100 years, whatever long we want. But we were literally in a death spiral leading up to this moment. And I have no idea how we ended up on this timeline.
I was over the moon and shocked when I read all of the progress over the last couple of weeks and putting this thing together. I did not know that this is where we were end up. I couldn't be more happy with what I think is going to happen with Doge and its effect on, if not actually making the changes, shining a light on the issues that need to be addressed.
And I will say it is unfair to Americans for this to be politicized. The Democrats shouldn't make this a Republican issue. This is not about Republicans doing damage. This is about doing the right thing for the government and for the country. And the Democrats had an opportunity to own this issue, and instead they've chosen to oppose it, which makes no sense.
It is frustrating and challenging to me as an American to think that this is even a political point. This should be a what's right for America point. It's almost like we're going to war, war with ourselves, with our bureaucracy, with the morass that's been built up over the last couple of decades. And I'm thrilled that this is happening. And frankly, put the people aside.
Maybe it's the fact that you need people that are as outspoken, as challenging, as difficult as these two particular individuals are going to run this group. but that might be what it takes for it to happen in the small 18 month window that they have. So I don't know, that's my rant on it.
Yeah, great rant. And we had a Milton Friedman clip go viral and he spoke exactly about his positions on what he would eliminate departments like agriculture, commerce, education. Let's just play that clip. And then there was obviously the Malay interview by Lex Friedman earlier this week.
Keep them or abolish them? Department of Agriculture. Abolish. Gone. Department of Commerce. Abolish. Gone. Department of Defense? Keep. Keep it. Department of Education? Abolish. Gone. Energy? Abolish. Health and Human Services? There is room for some public health activities to prevent contagion. We'll eliminate half of the Department of Health and Human Services? Yeah, something like that.
Okay, one half. There we go. Housing and Urban Development? Done. Done. That's gone. Department of the Interior?
The problem there is...
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Chapter 3: How does Milei's impact relate to GDP growth?
Chapter 4: What are the implications of WW3 escalation?
However, you could imagine a process like we have with the base closure commission when the United States needs to close a bunch of military bases and they created an outside commission to recommend the cuts and everyone kind of shared the pain equally. Maybe Doge could somehow play into that. Or trade a bit. Yeah.
So I'm not saying it's going to be perfect, but I do think that if Republicans share a principle across, again, both these establishment and the populist side, it would be in reducing unnecessary regulation and the number of the number of government employees needed to enforce all those regulations. So I'm hopeful that they'll be able to get something done within the party.
And since the Republicans have the trifecta, if they've got Trump's leadership and they've got the leadership of the Senate and House backing it, I think they'll be able to get something done. Again, it's not going to be Milton Friedman level, but I'm optimistic they'll get something good and important done.
I think the easiest thing for them to get done with Doge is the naming, the shaming, the auditing, the transparency of what we're actually spending. Because so many of the audits, Chamath, are just not completed. People don't know what's being spent.
And if you show Americans a $12,000 hammer or people with job titles not coming into the office or coming into the office one day a week, one day a month, That's going to infuriate taxpayers. And I think there's a very easy way to navigate all this.
You just create the leaderboard and you not only shame people who are wasting our tax dollars, you celebrate the people who are heroes, who start showing frugality and cost saving. And they're going to do this with the leaderboard of the heroes and the goats. This could be the unifying, not just the Republican Party, as Sachs is pointing out, Chamath, I think this could unify the whole country.
Is there anybody paying taxes? That wants to see money wasted that wants to see us pay people high salaries to not come to work? Shamath, what's your take on the sequence of events here? What are easy layups that they can actually get done? And then where is the machine going to fight and try to stop this thing?
I think you are highlighting something that they can do right away, which I think is very powerful, which is just using these distribution channels that Elon has now to create a massive layer of accountability. I do think that Sunshine is a really incredible disinfectant. I think the best way that they could start, if possible, is to stop paying
their vendors until you actually have some amount of accounting to figure out, as you said, how many $600 soap dispensers are actually being bought and sold. Now, that kind of whatever you want to call that, corruption or grift, it's not going to account for hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars.
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Chapter 5: What is the significance of fat cell memory?
And we talked about this before, where this is also a problem at the federal level when you look at GDP and job growth, because it looks like a lot of these jobs are actually fake manufactured government type jobs. So why is this a problem? You've seen in California, the issue that we have is that if you have
A growth in the number of employees, in this case in California, all the job growth in recent memory has been state employees. What is the byproduct? Regulations go up. What is the byproduct of that? There are actually no private sector jobs, and more to the point, the private sector flees. So now let's bubble that up and look at the federal government.
Nick, if you want to just show that chart that I sent you. What is incredible, J. Cal, is that the more people are hired by the government, lo and behold, what do you see? The number of regulations issued by federal agencies has just continued unabated year in, year out. You cannot run a country like this. So- Because these accumulate, right?
Congress is doing less and less of a job actually trying to frame how the country should work. That white space is filled in, as Freeberg said, by these federal agencies. It compounds and accumulates. This is not replacing laws. None of these regulations have expiry dates. And so as a result, I think what you probably have is an incredible restraint on the US economy.
I think that the US economy could be growing at 4% or 5%. But the reason that it doesn't grow at 405% is in that one single chart. It is impossible to be able to live up to your economic potential when you have this burden on your neck. So I think the real opportunity for Doge is to basically do whatever it needs to do using the law to wipe as many of these regulations off the books.
We are better off cutting them all to zero, and then finding the ones we really need and then repassing those, then we are going at this piecemeal. And there's some incredible ideas, by the way, that this creates. Nick, I don't know if you can find this tweet, but Doge asked what people think of the IRS.
And there was an enormous amount of activity that essentially said, give us a flat tax and wipe out the tax code. People were very flexible in the amount of tax that they were willing to pay. But could you imagine the simplification in the tax code and the implications of that? I was in Singapore, by the way, 10 days ago when I started my trip.
Nick, beep out the name of the person I'm about to say, but I had a long meeting with who is there. And I was asking him the complexity of dealing with taxes. He's like, what do you mean? We pay a very simple tax system. There's no capital gains in Singapore. And so as a result, our filing requirements are de minimisly small.
But as a result, people like him, meaning great entrepreneurs, can spend all their time thinking about what to build. Not tax optimization. Exactly. Or how to account for it. So could you imagine if these guys basically use Doge as a mechanism to shrink the tax code, create a flat tax potentially? I know that that has to be passed by Congress. I understand that.
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