Freeberg

Keep them or abolish them? Department of Agriculture. Abolish. Gone. Department of Commerce. Abolish. Gone. Department of Defense? Keep. Keep it. Department of Education? Abolish. Gone. Energy? Abolish. Health and Human Services? There is room for some public health activities to prevent contagion. We'll eliminate half of the Department of Health and Human Services? Yeah, something like that.

Keep them or abolish them? Department of Agriculture. Abolish. Gone. Department of Commerce. Abolish. Gone. Department of Defense? Keep. Keep it. Department of Education? Abolish. Gone. Energy? Abolish. Health and Human Services? There is room for some public health activities to prevent contagion. We'll eliminate half of the Department of Health and Human Services? Yeah, something like that.

Okay, one half. There we go. Housing and Urban Development? Done. Done. That's gone. Department of the Interior?

Okay, one half. There we go. Housing and Urban Development? Done. Done. That's gone. Department of the Interior?

you first have to sell off all the land that the government owns but that's what you should do but it could be done pretty quickly you should do that department of justice oh yes keep that one keep that one labor no gone state keep keep it transportation gone gone the treasury You have to keep it to collect taxes. All right. Collect taxes through the treasury.

you first have to sell off all the land that the government owns but that's what you should do but it could be done pretty quickly you should do that department of justice oh yes keep that one keep that one labor no gone state keep keep it transportation gone gone the treasury You have to keep it to collect taxes. All right. Collect taxes through the treasury.

All right, Chamath, apparently the Rain Man, David Sachs, is now the architect. I think he's been working behind the scenes, according to a bunch of the news stories.

All right, Chamath, apparently the Rain Man, David Sachs, is now the architect. I think he's been working behind the scenes, according to a bunch of the news stories.

Yeah, sure. Go ahead.

Yeah, sure. Go ahead.

Yeah, that's just the distinction I wanted to make here. There's no political leader who said that.

Yeah, that's just the distinction I wanted to make here. There's no political leader who said that.

It's five days later. We're a bit in the fog of war as it is. And there are all the breaking news caveats that you can put on this. But I want to recap what we know now about this assassination attempt and get everybody's feedback on it. Last Saturday at a rally in Pennsylvania, a 20-year-old named Thomas Matthew Crooks fired eight rounds with an AR-15 at the former president. One bullet,

It's five days later. We're a bit in the fog of war as it is. And there are all the breaking news caveats that you can put on this. But I want to recap what we know now about this assassination attempt and get everybody's feedback on it. Last Saturday at a rally in Pennsylvania, a 20-year-old named Thomas Matthew Crooks fired eight rounds with an AR-15 at the former president. One bullet,

J.D. Vance. referred to him as Hitler as well. Other people inside the Republican Party have referred to him as Hitler and a threat to democracy. So there's plenty of blame to go around to correct sex.

J.D. Vance. referred to him as Hitler as well. Other people inside the Republican Party have referred to him as Hitler and a threat to democracy. So there's plenty of blame to go around to correct sex.

Let's cut. We're going live now to the RNC in Milwaukee and live coverage. Sith Lord, David Sachs, are you there? Oh, there he is. It's Palpatine. Tell us about your new empire. Consider Palpatine.

Let's cut. We're going live now to the RNC in Milwaukee and live coverage. Sith Lord, David Sachs, are you there? Oh, there he is. It's Palpatine. Tell us about your new empire. Consider Palpatine.

Threat democracy, I think, is a valid criticism of Trump calling him Hitler. Yeah, probably insightful. So yeah, I think reasonable people can parse this. And it is something that has occurred on both sides. It's well documented, and both parties can do better.

Threat democracy, I think, is a valid criticism of Trump calling him Hitler. Yeah, probably insightful. So yeah, I think reasonable people can parse this. And it is something that has occurred on both sides. It's well documented, and both parties can do better.

And how do we make sure that they are actually competent in doing their job? This is the key point, Chamath, is the outcome. How do we judge people? Outcomes. And if you look at the outcome, how the Secret Service director hasn't resigned now. I mean, I know she's had a storied career and she's probably a good person who's done plenty of great things in her career. I don't know the details of it.

And how do we make sure that they are actually competent in doing their job? This is the key point, Chamath, is the outcome. How do we judge people? Outcomes. And if you look at the outcome, how the Secret Service director hasn't resigned now. I mean, I know she's had a storied career and she's probably a good person who's done plenty of great things in her career. I don't know the details of it.

But if the outcome of what you've done results in something this tragic and that could have been avoided, the proper thing is ownership and resignation or the people who run this organization or they answer to being fired. And so this absolute acceptance of mediocrity is something that has to change.

But if the outcome of what you've done results in something this tragic and that could have been avoided, the proper thing is ownership and resignation or the people who run this organization or they answer to being fired. And so this absolute acceptance of mediocrity is something that has to change.

There's a very simple test here. The job of the Secret Service is to jump in front of a bullet as we witnessed. In order to jump in front of a bullet, you have to be bigger than the target, right? You have to be. So a six foot two woman who's four feet wide, just as qualified as a man who's six foot two, four feet wide for that job description.

There's a very simple test here. The job of the Secret Service is to jump in front of a bullet as we witnessed. In order to jump in front of a bullet, you have to be bigger than the target, right? You have to be. So a six foot two woman who's four feet wide, just as qualified as a man who's six foot two, four feet wide for that job description.

You have to be brave enough to jump in front of a bullet.

You have to be brave enough to jump in front of a bullet.

Of her trying to put her gun back in the holster, yeah. I mean, apparently, I think Eric Trump said she's incredible.

Of her trying to put her gun back in the holster, yeah. I mean, apparently, I think Eric Trump said she's incredible.

Yeah. This is just sad.

Yeah. This is just sad.

Didn't Eric Trump say that she's like the best person ever? I think he was trying to support her.

Didn't Eric Trump say that she's like the best person ever? I think he was trying to support her.

nicked Trump's right ear. This was confirmed by the president on Truth Social. And a Trump supporter, tragically, in the crowd, Corey Comparatore, was killed while protecting his family from gunfire. Two others were critically injured. Crooks was killed by the Secret Service's counter-sniper team 26 seconds after he fired the first shot. He didn't have a criminal record.

nicked Trump's right ear. This was confirmed by the president on Truth Social. And a Trump supporter, tragically, in the crowd, Corey Comparatore, was killed while protecting his family from gunfire. Two others were critically injured. Crooks was killed by the Secret Service's counter-sniper team 26 seconds after he fired the first shot. He didn't have a criminal record.

A lot of adrenaline running at that moment in time.

A lot of adrenaline running at that moment in time.

And that's like five times more sloped. Right, right. So that sounds like a lie, right?

And that's like five times more sloped. Right, right. So that sounds like a lie, right?

And isn't it true that they were inside the structure? Well, in fairness, it was air conditioned inside the building and outside it was probably not the same.

And isn't it true that they were inside the structure? Well, in fairness, it was air conditioned inside the building and outside it was probably not the same.

And what harm would have come from just... taking a half hour and have Trump have a cup of coffee and then go make sure that this person is not dangerous. I'm just thinking judgment-wise. Listen, I understand they're in the field. I understand if they were concerned, maybe that's one of our snipers on the roof. Maybe there was a moment, a 30-second moment.

And what harm would have come from just... taking a half hour and have Trump have a cup of coffee and then go make sure that this person is not dangerous. I'm just thinking judgment-wise. Listen, I understand they're in the field. I understand if they were concerned, maybe that's one of our snipers on the roof. Maybe there was a moment, a 30-second moment.

I'm trying to give them the benefit of the doubt here, but

I'm trying to give them the benefit of the doubt here, but

He was not known to the FBI or Secret Service. He was a registered Republican, but also donated $15 to a progressive PAC. And the motive is not known, so we'll just wait for that. There were some leaks from a Senate briefing. I don't know if you gentlemen have heard those that just came out. And it was reported that Crooks wrote on July 13th on Steam. That's a gaming platform.

He was not known to the FBI or Secret Service. He was a registered Republican, but also donated $15 to a progressive PAC. And the motive is not known, so we'll just wait for that. There were some leaks from a Senate briefing. I don't know if you gentlemen have heard those that just came out. And it was reported that Crooks wrote on July 13th on Steam. That's a gaming platform.

Yeah, and they don't have a great track record of being honest about what's going on. You remember, not to bring up January 6th again, but they deleted all their text from January 6th. They circle the wagons. They do not want people criticizing them. I doubt we're even going to get that audio. I wonder if that audio is going to come out.

Yeah, and they don't have a great track record of being honest about what's going on. You remember, not to bring up January 6th again, but they deleted all their text from January 6th. They circle the wagons. They do not want people criticizing them. I doubt we're even going to get that audio. I wonder if that audio is going to come out.

Why not have a delay? Like not the end of the world.

Why not have a delay? Like not the end of the world.

You could put two blues up there. Just two beat officers on there would have solved the whole problem. If you don't have enough Secret Service agents. I was at a Clinton conference. benefit one time, and I got detained by the Secret Service and went into secondary screening. The reason given, I had two cell phones on me. They thought it was peculiar that I had two cell phones.

You could put two blues up there. Just two beat officers on there would have solved the whole problem. If you don't have enough Secret Service agents. I was at a Clinton conference. benefit one time, and I got detained by the Secret Service and went into secondary screening. The reason given, I had two cell phones on me. They thought it was peculiar that I had two cell phones.

They kept me for 15, 20 minutes in a side room, and they literally took my phone apart in front of me, took all the batteries out, went through every bag. They frisked me. I mean, wanded me, like three guys around me. They take this incredibly seriously.

They kept me for 15, 20 minutes in a side room, and they literally took my phone apart in front of me, took all the batteries out, went through every bag. They frisked me. I mean, wanded me, like three guys around me. They take this incredibly seriously.

July 13th will be my premiere watch as it unfolds. He had a second phone. He had a detonation device in his pocket. There were bomb or some sort of explosive device in his car. We'll get details of that, I'm sure. And now we are in the phase of how the hell did this happen? Here's a picture of the rooftop. The closest rooftop was not secured, and it was 130 yards away.

July 13th will be my premiere watch as it unfolds. He had a second phone. He had a detonation device in his pocket. There were bomb or some sort of explosive device in his car. We'll get details of that, I'm sure. And now we are in the phase of how the hell did this happen? Here's a picture of the rooftop. The closest rooftop was not secured, and it was 130 yards away.

And of course... as I was just sort of alluding to early, if this person looked like a SWAT member, which apparently he did, fatigues, you know, range finder, all that stuff, I'm guessing that maybe those snipers from the Secret Service thought those were friendlies. That's the only possible explanation of why they paused.

And of course... as I was just sort of alluding to early, if this person looked like a SWAT member, which apparently he did, fatigues, you know, range finder, all that stuff, I'm guessing that maybe those snipers from the Secret Service thought those were friendlies. That's the only possible explanation of why they paused.

I thought he had fatigues, but even still, a person laying there... The photo I saw, he was wearing a t-shirt. The great fear you have as a police officer is shooting another police officer. So I think that- Dude, he was not in a uniform. From whatever number of feet away, maybe. That's what they thought.

I thought he had fatigues, but even still, a person laying there... The photo I saw, he was wearing a t-shirt. The great fear you have as a police officer is shooting another police officer. So I think that- Dude, he was not in a uniform. From whatever number of feet away, maybe. That's what they thought.

They do have ways of doing that, right?

They do have ways of doing that, right?

Well, this is a report that they're investigating that the delay in shooting the sniper might have been that they thought it was friendly. So this theory is out there now and it's part of the investigation. It is a potential one. You know, I can tell you that that would be the nightmare scenario for the Secret Service is to shoot the local cop.

Well, this is a report that they're investigating that the delay in shooting the sniper might have been that they thought it was friendly. So this theory is out there now and it's part of the investigation. It is a potential one. You know, I can tell you that that would be the nightmare scenario for the Secret Service is to shoot the local cop.

Nobody's fired for anything anymore. It's just ridiculous. And there's no resigning, obviously. Nobody resigns. Nobody gets fired.

Nobody's fired for anything anymore. It's just ridiculous. And there's no resigning, obviously. Nobody resigns. Nobody gets fired.

And they deleted all their text message and did a major cover up the last time around. So you cannot trust them to investigate themselves. No.

And they deleted all their text message and did a major cover up the last time around. So you cannot trust them to investigate themselves. No.

I don't know if that was confirmed. It was.

I don't know if that was confirmed. It was.

The head of the Secret Service said they didn't put anybody on the rooftop because of its sloped surface. Obviously, this is being mocked on social media and questioned by journalists and anybody with any IQ points. The most disturbing part of all of this, aside from somebody wanting to murder the president, is the timeline. So ABC News is reporting on the following timeline, gentlemen.

The head of the Secret Service said they didn't put anybody on the rooftop because of its sloped surface. Obviously, this is being mocked on social media and questioned by journalists and anybody with any IQ points. The most disturbing part of all of this, aside from somebody wanting to murder the president, is the timeline. So ABC News is reporting on the following timeline, gentlemen.

Okay. Let's talk about the RNC. A friend of ours gave a talk and the VP was selected. You did a great job, Bestie.

Okay. Let's talk about the RNC. A friend of ours gave a talk and the VP was selected. You did a great job, Bestie.

What was it like to get on that stage? And I have a bunch of questions about- Yeah, what was it like? It seemed like people are not sitting in chairs, right? They're just mulling about. Tell us what the vibes are.

What was it like to get on that stage? And I have a bunch of questions about- Yeah, what was it like? It seemed like people are not sitting in chairs, right? They're just mulling about. Tell us what the vibes are.

So if you get a big applause, they'll pause it for you and you don't have to try to keep up.

So if you get a big applause, they'll pause it for you and you don't have to try to keep up.

5.10 p.m., Crooks was first identified as a POI, person of interest, 5.30. He's spotted with a range finder, 5.52. He's spotted on a roof by the Secret Service. 6.02, Trump takes the stage. 6.12 p.m., he fires his first shot. We'll get into some clips and everything, but let me just stop here and get everybody's reaction to this tragedy. Shamath, your thoughts.

5.10 p.m., Crooks was first identified as a POI, person of interest, 5.30. He's spotted with a range finder, 5.52. He's spotted on a roof by the Secret Service. 6.02, Trump takes the stage. 6.12 p.m., he fires his first shot. We'll get into some clips and everything, but let me just stop here and get everybody's reaction to this tragedy. Shamath, your thoughts.

This is a perfect segue because there are reports that friend of the pod, Tucker Carlson, had a big impact on talking to Trump about his selection of J.D. Vance and said, don't pick a neocon. That'll get you assassinated. That was one report. That was advice that came before the assassination attempt, obviously. So conspiracy theorists are kind of losing their minds over this.

This is a perfect segue because there are reports that friend of the pod, Tucker Carlson, had a big impact on talking to Trump about his selection of J.D. Vance and said, don't pick a neocon. That'll get you assassinated. That was one report. That was advice that came before the assassination attempt, obviously. So conspiracy theorists are kind of losing their minds over this.

But let's talk about the selection of J.D. Vance, because that is a big surprise, I think, in many quarters. Tell us about J.D. Vance. You're friends, yeah?

But let's talk about the selection of J.D. Vance, because that is a big surprise, I think, in many quarters. Tell us about J.D. Vance. You're friends, yeah?

Why is he the best pick in your mind?

Why is he the best pick in your mind?

All right. So let me get some feedback from the rest of the panel. I'll just give you a couple of bullet points about him. For those of you who don't know J.D. Vance, yeah, he worked at Peter Thiel's Mythical Capital and Steve Case's Revolution. And so he worked for a Republican and a Democrat in Steve Case. Started his own firm called Naria Capital.

All right. So let me get some feedback from the rest of the panel. I'll just give you a couple of bullet points about him. For those of you who don't know J.D. Vance, yeah, he worked at Peter Thiel's Mythical Capital and Steve Case's Revolution. And so he worked for a Republican and a Democrat in Steve Case. Started his own firm called Naria Capital.

And he went to Ohio State, graduated Yale, was actually classmates with Pivake. We talked about that. He's only 39 years old. So he's half the age of Trump. As you mentioned, combat correspondent for six months in Iraq in 2005, 39 years old. And Teal backed him with, I think, the largest Senate race donation in history, 15 million. And so this is quite a...

And he went to Ohio State, graduated Yale, was actually classmates with Pivake. We talked about that. He's only 39 years old. So he's half the age of Trump. As you mentioned, combat correspondent for six months in Iraq in 2005, 39 years old. And Teal backed him with, I think, the largest Senate race donation in history, 15 million. And so this is quite a...

Ascension Chamath from a venture capitalist to potentially vice president and obviously potentially president. He's in the second spot. So were you a proponent of the J.D. Vance as well?

Ascension Chamath from a venture capitalist to potentially vice president and obviously potentially president. He's in the second spot. So were you a proponent of the J.D. Vance as well?

The press says you lobby Trump as well.

The press says you lobby Trump as well.

He's great. We all read Hillbilly, Elegy. I don't know if we talked about it on this pod years ago, but you and I certainly talked about it a bunch, Shamath. And... You know, he came from nothing.

He's great. We all read Hillbilly, Elegy. I don't know if we talked about it on this pod years ago, but you and I certainly talked about it a bunch, Shamath. And... You know, he came from nothing.

Less than nothing. Addicts in his family. Less than nothing. And he talks a lot in his book, I don't know if you remember this, about social capital and the fact that he didn't understand, the name of his firm is Social Capital, people don't know the reference, that he just didn't have the social capital to even understand that a lawyer went to law school. Yeah. And, you know, he is an enigma.

Less than nothing. Addicts in his family. Less than nothing. And he talks a lot in his book, I don't know if you remember this, about social capital and the fact that he didn't understand, the name of his firm is Social Capital, people don't know the reference, that he just didn't have the social capital to even understand that a lawyer went to law school. Yeah. And, you know, he is an enigma.

His positions don't align with Trump's in every case, but they have quickly become aligned with Trump's. He's an incredible pick now.

His positions don't align with Trump's in every case, but they have quickly become aligned with Trump's. He's an incredible pick now.

The tent of the Republican Party at this RNC, Sacks, is the most wide open tent I've ever seen in politics. They had Amber Rose and people were criticizing Amber Rose.

The tent of the Republican Party at this RNC, Sacks, is the most wide open tent I've ever seen in politics. They had Amber Rose and people were criticizing Amber Rose.

And she knocked the ball out of the park and she's pro-choice.

And she knocked the ball out of the park and she's pro-choice.

Yeah, and that was my point here is what, you know, they've done a really great job of. And Vivek did a wonderful job in his talk. I want to give him a shout out of just saying, hey, listen, everybody can be part of this party. I think there's a lot of notes the Democrats could take from what they saw at the Republican National Convention.

Yeah, and that was my point here is what, you know, they've done a really great job of. And Vivek did a wonderful job in his talk. I want to give him a shout out of just saying, hey, listen, everybody can be part of this party. I think there's a lot of notes the Democrats could take from what they saw at the Republican National Convention.

These are people who would have been at the DNC, but, you know, one election cycle ago. But because of this purity test, you can't even, you know, win with them.

These are people who would have been at the DNC, but, you know, one election cycle ago. But because of this purity test, you can't even, you know, win with them.

Well, let me ask you that, yes, Sax. He's had a position of breaking up big tech.

Well, let me ask you that, yes, Sax. He's had a position of breaking up big tech.

Freeberg, does J.D. Vance being selected tip your vote towards Trump?

Freeberg, does J.D. Vance being selected tip your vote towards Trump?

I mean, they were pressured for him to go after a lot of the neocons, right? Sacks and get the never-Trumper contingent. Wasn't that like a lot of the pressure?

I mean, they were pressured for him to go after a lot of the neocons, right? Sacks and get the never-Trumper contingent. Wasn't that like a lot of the pressure?

I remain a moderate, undecided voter. I love J.D. Vance. I think it's an inspired choice. I know, Sax, where you're voting. I'll take some guesses on you, Chamath. But Freeberg, where are you standing right now?

I remain a moderate, undecided voter. I love J.D. Vance. I think it's an inspired choice. I know, Sax, where you're voting. I'll take some guesses on you, Chamath. But Freeberg, where are you standing right now?

Yeah, they subsidized it.

Yeah, they subsidized it.

Can you give us an update here at the end of the show, Freeberg on scholarships and what people have been asking for the Olin Summit?

Can you give us an update here at the end of the show, Freeberg on scholarships and what people have been asking for the Olin Summit?

All right, let's just do one quick business story here since we spent the bulk of the episode talking about politics and current events. Exits creeping back. Sequoia is doing a secondary sale of their Stripe investment, one of the greatest investments of the last decade. And Google is in talks to acquire Wiz. And this is absolutely amazing news for Sequoia.

All right, let's just do one quick business story here since we spent the bulk of the episode talking about politics and current events. Exits creeping back. Sequoia is doing a secondary sale of their Stripe investment, one of the greatest investments of the last decade. And Google is in talks to acquire Wiz. And this is absolutely amazing news for Sequoia.

the industry, which has been suffering from a lack of distributions. As you can see in this chart, Chamath, after 2021, exit values just plummeted. And there are some signs of life now. Let's start with Sequoia buying back some Stripe shares from its own LPs. Sequoia Capital has invested $517 million in Stripe. That's currently worth about $10 billion.

the industry, which has been suffering from a lack of distributions. As you can see in this chart, Chamath, after 2021, exit values just plummeted. And there are some signs of life now. Let's start with Sequoia buying back some Stripe shares from its own LPs. Sequoia Capital has invested $517 million in Stripe. That's currently worth about $10 billion.

20X, Michael Moritz, led the seed in Series A. Sequoia offered to buy back $860 million in Stripe shares from LPs in its legacy funds. Those are the funds between 2009 and 2012. Sequoia is using capital from their newer funds, like its Evergreen Fund that was formed in 2021, the Heritage Fund, that's their wealth management team, to give the legacy funds some liquidity. It's not normal.

20X, Michael Moritz, led the seed in Series A. Sequoia offered to buy back $860 million in Stripe shares from LPs in its legacy funds. Those are the funds between 2009 and 2012. Sequoia is using capital from their newer funds, like its Evergreen Fund that was formed in 2021, the Heritage Fund, that's their wealth management team, to give the legacy funds some liquidity. It's not normal.

that a company stayed private this long. It is the exception to the rule, but it has happened. It actually happened with Uber to a certain extent. So legacy fund LPs have the choice, Sachs, to hold, sell some, or sell all of their Stripe shares. Here's the quote from the note.

that a company stayed private this long. It is the exception to the rule, but it has happened. It actually happened with Uber to a certain extent. So legacy fund LPs have the choice, Sachs, to hold, sell some, or sell all of their Stripe shares. Here's the quote from the note.

Sequoia personnel and associated persons will not be offered the option to sell Stripe shares previously received as carried interest distributions from the legacy funds. And they are offering $27.50 a share, which is pretty generous, $70 billion valuation. As you may know, Stripe has hit as high as $100 billion in market cap in the private markets.

Sequoia personnel and associated persons will not be offered the option to sell Stripe shares previously received as carried interest distributions from the legacy funds. And they are offering $27.50 a share, which is pretty generous, $70 billion valuation. As you may know, Stripe has hit as high as $100 billion in market cap in the private markets.

So this will be a, from the seed, which was a $20 million post, $3,500x for those LPs. And for the Series A, it is a $100 million post, which is 700x. For those people who don't know, I think it was Sam Altman who actually did that investment as a Sequoia Scout in the same fund that I did the Uber investment. So still the number one and two investments there.

So this will be a, from the seed, which was a $20 million post, $3,500x for those LPs. And for the Series A, it is a $100 million post, which is 700x. For those people who don't know, I think it was Sam Altman who actually did that investment as a Sequoia Scout in the same fund that I did the Uber investment. So still the number one and two investments there.

Your thoughts, Jamath, on this unique opportunity and device to sell early shares from the same venture fund?

Your thoughts, Jamath, on this unique opportunity and device to sell early shares from the same venture fund?

Okay. Freeberg, where were you when the news broke? And what are your general thoughts here five days after this occurred? We'll get into political ramifications and everything else, but just on the event that occurred and your takeaways from it.

Okay. Freeberg, where were you when the news broke? And what are your general thoughts here five days after this occurred? We'll get into political ramifications and everything else, but just on the event that occurred and your takeaways from it.

And so I suspect that that probably- Well, they did say that the GPs aren't going to get to liquidate anything. So they did put that note in there. So they've anticipated that.

And so I suspect that that probably- Well, they did say that the GPs aren't going to get to liquidate anything. So they did put that note in there. So they've anticipated that.

And the hygiene of it is clearly what we see SACs in that documentation, giving people choices. You can make your own choice. We're not taking carry. We're not selling our shares, and we're only selling 10%. So they did go to extreme measures, I guess, to outline that. But your thoughts on this type of sale?

And the hygiene of it is clearly what we see SACs in that documentation, giving people choices. You can make your own choice. We're not taking carry. We're not selling our shares, and we're only selling 10%. So they did go to extreme measures, I guess, to outline that. But your thoughts on this type of sale?

It happens in private equity all the time, I understand, but we don't see it in venture all that often. What are your thoughts on this, providing liquidity to the 14-year-old funds?

It happens in private equity all the time, I understand, but we don't see it in venture all that often. What are your thoughts on this, providing liquidity to the 14-year-old funds?

And the valuation, just to, sorry, I didn't clarify, this valuation is based on the last 409A.

And the valuation, just to, sorry, I didn't clarify, this valuation is based on the last 409A.

That's what it's trading at in secondary markets, and that's what the 409A is. So I guess that would be the hygiene there. But it's certainly unique and I guess great for those LPs. That's a word for it. Well, I mean, we had a similar thing happen with Uber, where they did the secondary and, you know, they had Masayoshi-san come in and do an IPO, essentially. That's entirely different.

That's what it's trading at in secondary markets, and that's what the 409A is. So I guess that would be the hygiene there. But it's certainly unique and I guess great for those LPs. That's a word for it. Well, I mean, we had a similar thing happen with Uber, where they did the secondary and, you know, they had Masayoshi-san come in and do an IPO, essentially. That's entirely different.

Yeah, you had new money coming in, to your point. Yeah. Here is the second story related to DPI and VCs getting to cash out. Google is in advanced stocks to acquire Wiz for $23 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. It's an Israeli-American cybersecurity startup that was founded only in 2020.

Yeah, you had new money coming in, to your point. Yeah. Here is the second story related to DPI and VCs getting to cash out. Google is in advanced stocks to acquire Wiz for $23 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. It's an Israeli-American cybersecurity startup that was founded only in 2020.

Backed by Sequoia Index, Insight, Andreessen, and others, one of the fastest growing startups ever, reaching $500 million in ARR in 4.5 years. Google would be paying 46x forward revenue. They think they'll have a billion in ARR sometime next year. And what are our thoughts on this in terms of M&A?

Backed by Sequoia Index, Insight, Andreessen, and others, one of the fastest growing startups ever, reaching $500 million in ARR in 4.5 years. Google would be paying 46x forward revenue. They think they'll have a billion in ARR sometime next year. And what are our thoughts on this in terms of M&A?

I have to say these two things have really helped the climate in the LP community. This past week, a lot of chatter about IPOs that are getting filed and that we could be ending the drought and people were feeling very, very pessimistic about venture as a category. And I think these two things have changed a lot of people's feelings on that. So Good work there.

I have to say these two things have really helped the climate in the LP community. This past week, a lot of chatter about IPOs that are getting filed and that we could be ending the drought and people were feeling very, very pessimistic about venture as a category. And I think these two things have changed a lot of people's feelings on that. So Good work there.

And I think it also signals maybe some regime change expectations, Sax. Yeah, Lena Kahn maybe getting booted when this regime change occurs next year, and then maybe more M&A would occur. What's Trump's and J.D. Vance's position in your mind on M&A and Lena Kahn, Sax, if you had to interpret it?

And I think it also signals maybe some regime change expectations, Sax. Yeah, Lena Kahn maybe getting booted when this regime change occurs next year, and then maybe more M&A would occur. What's Trump's and J.D. Vance's position in your mind on M&A and Lena Kahn, Sax, if you had to interpret it?

But I think there's going to be a problem with Republicans. So sex is the freedom of speech issue and Republicans being banned on the social platforms, including it up to Trump. I mean, if that issue wasn't there, I think you would probably see maybe a different approach. Yeah.

But I think there's going to be a problem with Republicans. So sex is the freedom of speech issue and Republicans being banned on the social platforms, including it up to Trump. I mean, if that issue wasn't there, I think you would probably see maybe a different approach. Yeah.

That seems to be his main issue. I think we'll see under Trump a lot more mid-market M&A if I were to, you know, let's call it under $100 billion. $100 billion acquisition would be fine with me, under $100 billion.

That seems to be his main issue. I think we'll see under Trump a lot more mid-market M&A if I were to, you know, let's call it under $100 billion. $100 billion acquisition would be fine with me, under $100 billion.

Well, in breaking news, as we wrap up this program, the hot swap summer will continue. Apparently, Biden is predicted to resign this weekend. We'll see if it happens. Speed run primary. Nostradamus is predicting it happens. Nostracanus. Nostracanus. Nostracanus will keep his position. The hot swap is coming.

Well, in breaking news, as we wrap up this program, the hot swap summer will continue. Apparently, Biden is predicted to resign this weekend. We'll see if it happens. Speed run primary. Nostradamus is predicting it happens. Nostracanus. Nostracanus. Nostracanus will keep his position. The hot swap is coming.

was a bet interview so he did the lesser hold interview which was not good and then he did the bet interview well the money's dried up right your mouth so once the money goes it's over well yeah and he he also did a horrible one with 360 with speedy speedy mormon and that was a train wreck there was a couple moments there that are just total gaffes they say say pelosi and uh schumer told him it's over and i guess that means and katzenberg

was a bet interview so he did the lesser hold interview which was not good and then he did the bet interview well the money's dried up right your mouth so once the money goes it's over well yeah and he he also did a horrible one with 360 with speedy speedy mormon and that was a train wreck there was a couple moments there that are just total gaffes they say say pelosi and uh schumer told him it's over and i guess that means and katzenberg

I love you guys. I got to go to dinner. Love you guys. Talk to you soon. For the chairman dictator, the architect, David Sacks, and your sultan of science who ducked out a little bit early, I am the world's greatest moderator. We'll see you next time, by the way.

I love you guys. I got to go to dinner. Love you guys. Talk to you soon. For the chairman dictator, the architect, David Sacks, and your sultan of science who ducked out a little bit early, I am the world's greatest moderator. We'll see you next time, by the way.

Let's get Sachs' reaction. Sachs, where were you when this occurred? and your thoughts on the event itself. And obviously, there's tons of conspiracy theories going around right now. Obviously, there is some negligence that occurred here. I don't think there's any doubt about that. There's a DEI angle. There's a ton of angles here. But where were you when you saw this happen?

Let's get Sachs' reaction. Sachs, where were you when this occurred? and your thoughts on the event itself. And obviously, there's tons of conspiracy theories going around right now. Obviously, there is some negligence that occurred here. I don't think there's any doubt about that. There's a DEI angle. There's a ton of angles here. But where were you when you saw this happen?

obviously facts. Trump makes his own decisions. You're getting a little bit too much credit, I think.

obviously facts. Trump makes his own decisions. You're getting a little bit too much credit, I think.

And what was your immediate thought?

And what was your immediate thought?

We were one inch away from the president of the United States having his head shot You know, he's got grandkids, he's got a wife, he's got kids, he's got friends. How do you feel about the individual? His head was almost shot on television in front of thousands, hundreds, maybe thousands of people on live television. And the gravity of this, I think, is very significant.

We were one inch away from the president of the United States having his head shot You know, he's got grandkids, he's got a wife, he's got kids, he's got friends. How do you feel about the individual? His head was almost shot on television in front of thousands, hundreds, maybe thousands of people on live television. And the gravity of this, I think, is very significant.

And I think we've in this media saturated environment, we've processed it too quick, which is why on the docket I wanted to slow down here and just take in what happened.

And I think we've in this media saturated environment, we've processed it too quick, which is why on the docket I wanted to slow down here and just take in what happened.

It certainly was an amount of bravery and a bold response. I do think this the next phase of this is sort of figuring out what happened with the Secret Service as brave as it was for him to stand up. That was a crazy thing to do. I can't believe the Secret Service allowed him to get back up because there could have been a second shooter.

It certainly was an amount of bravery and a bold response. I do think this the next phase of this is sort of figuring out what happened with the Secret Service as brave as it was for him to stand up. That was a crazy thing to do. I can't believe the Secret Service allowed him to get back up because there could have been a second shooter.

And although we heard radio chatter that the shooter was down, I mean, how did you know in a situation like this what's actually happening? They could have gotten a second shot off on the president. Maybe they don't miss by an inch that time and then they hit it. So we got a lot of questions that need to be answered here. Thank God he's OK. And I think I guess now it's time to talk about rhetoric.

And although we heard radio chatter that the shooter was down, I mean, how did you know in a situation like this what's actually happening? They could have gotten a second shot off on the president. Maybe they don't miss by an inch that time and then they hit it. So we got a lot of questions that need to be answered here. Thank God he's OK. And I think I guess now it's time to talk about rhetoric.

In all seriousness, Saks, you're there, and obviously... you know, President Trump. How is he doing? How's he feeling in the wake of this absolute tragedy?

In all seriousness, Saks, you're there, and obviously... you know, President Trump. How is he doing? How's he feeling in the wake of this absolute tragedy?

And I think that's actually, from my perspective, you know, the next thing that has to happen here in terms of leadership, when something this tragic happens, you know, everybody's looking at the other side's rhetoric here, whether it's putting Trump on a magazine cover as Hitler, or they're saying you got to fight like hell, or the Oath Keepers and all this January 6th nonsense and beating up cops.

And I think that's actually, from my perspective, you know, the next thing that has to happen here in terms of leadership, when something this tragic happens, you know, everybody's looking at the other side's rhetoric here, whether it's putting Trump on a magazine cover as Hitler, or they're saying you got to fight like hell, or the Oath Keepers and all this January 6th nonsense and beating up cops.

I think we have to put both of these things aside. And the leadership, Trump and Biden, should be saying right now that, And leadership does start at the top. This rhetoric is not to be done anymore. People have to tone things down. You could be passionate about politics, but using violent language, there are sick people in the world.

I think we have to put both of these things aside. And the leadership, Trump and Biden, should be saying right now that, And leadership does start at the top. This rhetoric is not to be done anymore. People have to tone things down. You could be passionate about politics, but using violent language, there are sick people in the world.

And this kid, I think it will ultimately turn out like all the other assassins we've seen or these celebrity killings that occur, John Lennon, et cetera. It's usually a mentally ill person. Likely what happened here, we don't know yet. You know, they interpret violent language differently than a normal person.

And this kid, I think it will ultimately turn out like all the other assassins we've seen or these celebrity killings that occur, John Lennon, et cetera. It's usually a mentally ill person. Likely what happened here, we don't know yet. You know, they interpret violent language differently than a normal person.

So we could say fight like hell or target or, you know, you got to fight for your country, whatever it is. And we would take it a certain way. Sick people take it a different way. And they need to put out a joint statement and just say, anybody on our teams who uses violent rhetoric is no longer on our teams and they haven't done that.

So we could say fight like hell or target or, you know, you got to fight for your country, whatever it is. And we would take it a certain way. Sick people take it a different way. And they need to put out a joint statement and just say, anybody on our teams who uses violent rhetoric is no longer on our teams and they haven't done that.

So I think there's like more work to be done here in terms of leadership.

So I think there's like more work to be done here in terms of leadership.

The Puppet Master? Okay, well, let's cut.

The Puppet Master? Okay, well, let's cut.

All right, everybody, welcome back to episode 188 of the All In podcast. We have a full docket to get through today. We are here on July 18th on the taping of this, and it is five days after an assassination attempt on the former president of the United States and the likely 47th president of the United States, obviously President Trump. We're going to start with what we know.

All right, everybody, welcome back to episode 188 of the All In podcast. We have a full docket to get through today. We are here on July 18th on the taping of this, and it is five days after an assassination attempt on the former president of the United States and the likely 47th president of the United States, obviously President Trump. We're going to start with what we know.

Okay. Well, the media is reflecting what is said by both candidates and both sides, and they both use very targeted language. I'll put a couple of links in the show notes of both sides doing this, and you can make your own decision as the audience. But I do think leadership would be both of them saying, stop this violent language. And both sides do it.

Okay. Well, the media is reflecting what is said by both candidates and both sides, and they both use very targeted language. I'll put a couple of links in the show notes of both sides doing this, and you can make your own decision as the audience. But I do think leadership would be both of them saying, stop this violent language. And both sides do it.

He actually sits there and he says, you know, folks, I'm happy to continue to talk about whatever you want me to. You feel free to ask me questions. Or... Feel free to just go around the room and just tell me what you think. And what would happen is people would say different things. And then he would start asking questions of other people.

He actually sits there and he says, you know, folks, I'm happy to continue to talk about whatever you want me to. You feel free to ask me questions. Or... Feel free to just go around the room and just tell me what you think. And what would happen is people would say different things. And then he would start asking questions of other people.

And the thing becomes almost like this roundtable discussion of topics from we talked about Iran. We talked about foreign policy. We talked about deficit.

And the thing becomes almost like this roundtable discussion of topics from we talked about Iran. We talked about foreign policy. We talked about deficit.

Well, he's very much on your side of we have to really figure out how to get spending in order and get the deficit under control.

Well, he's very much on your side of we have to really figure out how to get spending in order and get the deficit under control.

It's not elder abuse to be honest about what you're observing, especially when it comes to the most powerful role in America.

It's not elder abuse to be honest about what you're observing, especially when it comes to the most powerful role in America.

I think you're right about maybe some of the issues where folks will get much more precise on these issues. But I actually think what's happening is that this is really going to be about Trump versus Kamala Harris. I don't think Biden is going to step down at all, but I do think there's a chance that non-trivial chance that Biden wins.

I think you're right about maybe some of the issues where folks will get much more precise on these issues. But I actually think what's happening is that this is really going to be about Trump versus Kamala Harris. I don't think Biden is going to step down at all, but I do think there's a chance that non-trivial chance that Biden wins.

And if he does, I don't think he's going to make it four years. And so then the real question is, do folks want Kamala? And have they had a chance to really figure out whether they want to vote for her or not? I think that's really where it's going to come down to. It's really Trump versus Kamala Harris.

And if he does, I don't think he's going to make it four years. And so then the real question is, do folks want Kamala? And have they had a chance to really figure out whether they want to vote for her or not? I think that's really where it's going to come down to. It's really Trump versus Kamala Harris.

I just think that without saying anything bad about Kamala, because I don't know much about her, is really what I would say is I don't know much about her. And so you can't have somebody who gets into that role accidentally. I think we have to give both President Trump and President Biden a lot of credit, which is they stood in the eye of the hurricane and withstood all the pressure and won.

I just think that without saying anything bad about Kamala, because I don't know much about her, is really what I would say is I don't know much about her. And so you can't have somebody who gets into that role accidentally. I think we have to give both President Trump and President Biden a lot of credit, which is they stood in the eye of the hurricane and withstood all the pressure and won.

And he who wins that way deserves to be the president of the United States. She hasn't withstood that. And so I think that it's pretty unfair for a lot of voters if there is a bait and switch. And so I think that you have to look at both of these two candidates and assign a reasonable probability that both of them make it to the finish line.

And he who wins that way deserves to be the president of the United States. She hasn't withstood that. And so I think that it's pretty unfair for a lot of voters if there is a bait and switch. And so I think that you have to look at both of these two candidates and assign a reasonable probability that both of them make it to the finish line.

And from at least what I saw up close, I think it's a much higher probability that Donald Trump does than President Biden does.

And from at least what I saw up close, I think it's a much higher probability that Donald Trump does than President Biden does.

Yeah, let's do it. Let's do it. Let's do a 10K free roll for Tim and his fans.

Yeah, let's do it. Let's do it. Let's do a 10K free roll for Tim and his fans.

It's kind of odd that we're in this crazy place. Same here. When that original package was unveiled, there was a lot of people, including me, who thought, there's no way he's going to hit this. It's just way too aggressive, and it requires so many things to go right. And so I think in part, that's why three quarters of the Tesla shareholders approved it then. 73% is not squeaking over the line.

It's kind of odd that we're in this crazy place. Same here. When that original package was unveiled, there was a lot of people, including me, who thought, there's no way he's going to hit this. It's just way too aggressive, and it requires so many things to go right. And so I think in part, that's why three quarters of the Tesla shareholders approved it then. 73% is not squeaking over the line.

It's not 50% plus a vote. It's a super majority. And that excluded Kimball and Elon shares. Exactly. And then I think you have this very dangerous form of judicial activism, which essentially ignored the will of the shareholders to and tried to create some administrative ruling that threw up this big question mark.

It's not 50% plus a vote. It's a super majority. And that excluded Kimball and Elon shares. Exactly. And then I think you have this very dangerous form of judicial activism, which essentially ignored the will of the shareholders to and tried to create some administrative ruling that threw up this big question mark.

So then in typical Elon style, he's like, great, we're just going to get them to vote it again. And then yet again, it passes and it looks like it's going to pass by around 73%. But the problem now is that it's still not clear what happens. I think that there's still some question marks where this may not nullify the judge's decision. It may actually create more question marks.

So then in typical Elon style, he's like, great, we're just going to get them to vote it again. And then yet again, it passes and it looks like it's going to pass by around 73%. But the problem now is that it's still not clear what happens. I think that there's still some question marks where this may not nullify the judge's decision. It may actually create more question marks.

So hopefully this gets sorted out. He should get this stock. He never should have, or these options, he never should have had them taken away. And so I just hope this thing, it becomes a nothing burger.

So hopefully this gets sorted out. He should get this stock. He never should have, or these options, he never should have had them taken away. And so I just hope this thing, it becomes a nothing burger.

What do you guys think of the organizations that initially voted yes and now voted no.

What do you guys think of the organizations that initially voted yes and now voted no.

They recommended no both times.

They recommended no both times.

No, I'm saying.

No, I'm saying.

You're a scumbag. Is that public anywhere who did that? Yeah, there are a bunch of folks that said that they, you know, I think it was CalPERS that voted yes. And then when they were on trying to explain, they were like, tap that dancing and like corporate jargon. But really what they are scumbags, Jason, you're right, they are morally and ethically void, and they're reneging.

You're a scumbag. Is that public anywhere who did that? Yeah, there are a bunch of folks that said that they, you know, I think it was CalPERS that voted yes. And then when they were on trying to explain, they were like, tap that dancing and like corporate jargon. But really what they are scumbags, Jason, you're right, they are morally and ethically void, and they're reneging.

And this is the one rule in business you're not allowed to do. And the people that do that are these penny-pinching scumbags.

And this is the one rule in business you're not allowed to do. And the people that do that are these penny-pinching scumbags.

Yeah, non-zero possibility. You made an agreement with somebody and you shook their hand. Why does he care whether he would have left or not left? You have to do the right thing. You have to do the right thing. You promised the guy X amount of money for doing Y amount of things. He did the Y things. And then you had a judge come over the top because of somebody who owned 10 shares.

Yeah, non-zero possibility. You made an agreement with somebody and you shook their hand. Why does he care whether he would have left or not left? You have to do the right thing. You have to do the right thing. You promised the guy X amount of money for doing Y amount of things. He did the Y things. And then you had a judge come over the top because of somebody who owned 10 shares.

And all I'm saying is if you don't have the intellectual... intelligence to look past that and say, wait a minute, we just paid the guy to do this work. And now we're going to renege. They're gaming the system. I just think that like, how can anyone who is capable of doing a job sign up for a pay package?

And all I'm saying is if you don't have the intellectual... intelligence to look past that and say, wait a minute, we just paid the guy to do this work. And now we're going to renege. They're gaming the system. I just think that like, how can anyone who is capable of doing a job sign up for a pay package?

How could anyone and the people that will sign up are these like middling corpo people who will accomplish nothing and will run these companies in ways that then speaks to organizations that have just proven themselves to be totally unreliable.

How could anyone and the people that will sign up are these like middling corpo people who will accomplish nothing and will run these companies in ways that then speaks to organizations that have just proven themselves to be totally unreliable.

Sorry, Marshy Frost. Oh, sorry. I thought it was Karen Frost. I think like this is emblematic of the kind of person who is incapable of actually doing the right thing. And there's a lot of these people that run a lot of these organizations that I mean, What kind of an answer is that? I mean, it was a non-answer. That's why I said it was smug. Let me just ask each of you.

Sorry, Marshy Frost. Oh, sorry. I thought it was Karen Frost. I think like this is emblematic of the kind of person who is incapable of actually doing the right thing. And there's a lot of these people that run a lot of these organizations that I mean, What kind of an answer is that? I mean, it was a non-answer. That's why I said it was smug. Let me just ask each of you.

You've all started companies. Some of you are still running companies. Would you take money from her and CalPERS after that statement? Hard no for me.

You've all started companies. Some of you are still running companies. Would you take money from her and CalPERS after that statement? Hard no for me.

No, no, no. CalPERS announced that they're an LP and they're starting to do directs.

No, no, no. CalPERS announced that they're an LP and they're starting to do directs.

Well, what are they going to get paid? Because they also wanted to get paid in Tesla shares.

Well, what are they going to get paid? Because they also wanted to get paid in Tesla shares.

The last company I started, 8090, we incorporated in Nevada, and I just re-domiciled a couple of other companies that I own into Nevada as well.

The last company I started, 8090, we incorporated in Nevada, and I just re-domiciled a couple of other companies that I own into Nevada as well.

I think you nailed it right at the beginning. The thing that I was struck by the most in this is we went from a phase where in the Steve Jobs era, These events were because you were about to unveil a product that was done and shipping as of that day. And then at some point we transitioned to they are talking about products that they intend to release within a year.

I think you nailed it right at the beginning. The thing that I was struck by the most in this is we went from a phase where in the Steve Jobs era, These events were because you were about to unveil a product that was done and shipping as of that day. And then at some point we transitioned to they are talking about products that they intend to release within a year.

Now we've shifted to the part where they're talking about software integrations from a third party that will happen in a year. So if you just look at it sequentially, it's a little disappointing in that sense, because for a company this big, it's really not much of anything. You can't really touch it and feel it.

Now we've shifted to the part where they're talking about software integrations from a third party that will happen in a year. So if you just look at it sequentially, it's a little disappointing in that sense, because for a company this big, it's really not much of anything. You can't really touch it and feel it.

And it's going to take a year before we really know what the totality of all of this is. Meanwhile, The economics of the chat GPT deal were leaked, and there's no money on either side. So, I don't know, it's a little bit of like, it's really not much of anything, to be honest, because there's nothing we can actually play with and experience.

And it's going to take a year before we really know what the totality of all of this is. Meanwhile, The economics of the chat GPT deal were leaked, and there's no money on either side. So, I don't know, it's a little bit of like, it's really not much of anything, to be honest, because there's nothing we can actually play with and experience.

I think that Apple really cares about privacy when they're trying to hurt a company they don't like, i.e. Meta. And they're willing to figure out a way to work around it when it's a company that they clearly support, OpenAI.

I think that Apple really cares about privacy when they're trying to hurt a company they don't like, i.e. Meta. And they're willing to figure out a way to work around it when it's a company that they clearly support, OpenAI.

You can do apples to apples here because 2023 Jan is 200 million. That means that June is 300 million if they're on a $3.6 billion run rate. Yeah.

You can do apples to apples here because 2023 Jan is 200 million. That means that June is 300 million if they're on a $3.6 billion run rate. Yeah.

I'm kind of in David's camp, which is I think to the extent that the business has a large terminal value, it's going to be because of the enterprise cash flows. The thing to keep in mind is that I still haven't seen enterprises building production level products using AI? It's all experimentational, right? It's all experiments now. That's nothing against open AI.

I'm kind of in David's camp, which is I think to the extent that the business has a large terminal value, it's going to be because of the enterprise cash flows. The thing to keep in mind is that I still haven't seen enterprises building production level products using AI? It's all experimentational, right? It's all experiments now. That's nothing against open AI.

It's just a commentary on the fact that we are at a very, very early part of the cycle where when you use this term blast radius, right? What are you referring to? You're referring to this idea that you're stringing together elements of a model or multiple models that each have some non-trivial error rate. By multiplying all these error rates together, you get your final product.

It's just a commentary on the fact that we are at a very, very early part of the cycle where when you use this term blast radius, right? What are you referring to? You're referring to this idea that you're stringing together elements of a model or multiple models that each have some non-trivial error rate. By multiplying all these error rates together, you get your final product.

But the unfortunate reality in most AI workloads is that you end up with something that's not very good. And that's not the fault of OpenAI, nor is it the fault of Lama. It's just the nature of how these bottles work and the fact that, you know, you've gone from something very, you know, deterministic to something that's very probabilistic.

But the unfortunate reality in most AI workloads is that you end up with something that's not very good. And that's not the fault of OpenAI, nor is it the fault of Lama. It's just the nature of how these bottles work and the fact that, you know, you've gone from something very, you know, deterministic to something that's very probabilistic.

And we have not found a way to create extremely high quality experiences, we as an industry. that make this cost justifiable. So right now, as you said, Jason, most of that is toy apps and a lot of experimentation. Will we get there? I absolutely think so. But we're not there yet. So I suspect that most of the revenue then is on the consumer side right now, actually.

And we have not found a way to create extremely high quality experiences, we as an industry. that make this cost justifiable. So right now, as you said, Jason, most of that is toy apps and a lot of experimentation. Will we get there? I absolutely think so. But we're not there yet. So I suspect that most of the revenue then is on the consumer side right now, actually.

And so I just looked at Google Trends, and I first looked at the United States, and I just wanted to understand how is the traction. And what's interesting is, is that

And so I just looked at Google Trends, and I first looked at the United States, and I just wanted to understand how is the traction. And what's interesting is, is that

The traffic in the United States is down about 25%, 26% since the end of the school year, which I think reinforces this belief that ChatGPT has definitely over-indexed in that young people's cohort where they rely on it to write essays or what have you. But then I looked outside the United States and worldwide. And what's interesting about that is that's actually still growing up into the right.

The traffic in the United States is down about 25%, 26% since the end of the school year, which I think reinforces this belief that ChatGPT has definitely over-indexed in that young people's cohort where they rely on it to write essays or what have you. But then I looked outside the United States and worldwide. And what's interesting about that is that's actually still growing up into the right.

So I think you have then an ARPU problem, which is the same thing that we had to deal with at Facebook, which is we have these extremely valuable users in America. They asymptote at some point, and then we have to grow in other markets, but those markets aren't nearly as lucrative. Right. Yeah. They just don't generate nearly as much revenue.

So I think you have then an ARPU problem, which is the same thing that we had to deal with at Facebook, which is we have these extremely valuable users in America. They asymptote at some point, and then we have to grow in other markets, but those markets aren't nearly as lucrative. Right. Yeah. They just don't generate nearly as much revenue.

So then, I don't know, I would just wrap up by saying that I think that it's just, if this number is right, it's just an incredible testament to what they've been able to uncover and create in a short amount of time. That is legendary stuff. Yep.

So then, I don't know, I would just wrap up by saying that I think that it's just, if this number is right, it's just an incredible testament to what they've been able to uncover and create in a short amount of time. That is legendary stuff. Yep.

But what I can tell you, in working with enterprises around these AI experiences through 8090, we have not yet seen production quality models being deployed in the wild that are dealing with very, very important business processes, which means that most of the revenue right now is probably consumer oriented.

But what I can tell you, in working with enterprises around these AI experiences through 8090, we have not yet seen production quality models being deployed in the wild that are dealing with very, very important business processes, which means that most of the revenue right now is probably consumer oriented.

And were you paying them an enterprise license or a consumer license?

And were you paying them an enterprise license or a consumer license?

No, no, I was asking like the free bird. Yeah, no, free bird. Like you're just paying it yourself or you pay for everybody at Koala?

No, no, I was asking like the free bird. Yeah, no, free bird. Like you're just paying it yourself or you pay for everybody at Koala?

You're surprised that that facility only has, what, dealers? That's like... I think there's a lot of webcams there.

You're surprised that that facility only has, what, dealers? That's like... I think there's a lot of webcams there.

Hold on. Hold on. Wait a minute, Tim. You are a Kiwi living in Calgary. Is that right?

Hold on. Hold on. Wait a minute, Tim. You are a Kiwi living in Calgary. Is that right?

I will put myself on the other side of that trade if there was one. If I had to simplify the United States economy, remember, GDP is 70% spending by individual people. And so people can spend two things, savings that they have or credit that they have.

I will put myself on the other side of that trade if there was one. If I had to simplify the United States economy, remember, GDP is 70% spending by individual people. And so people can spend two things, savings that they have or credit that they have.

And what's interesting is that we have finally burned through, and this is what this picture shows, all of the money that folks had in their bank accounts. And so what does that force people to do? It actually forces people to reenter the workforce so that they can start to make money. But the problem is that companies have been shrinking and have been on a defensive posture.

And what's interesting is that we have finally burned through, and this is what this picture shows, all of the money that folks had in their bank accounts. And so what does that force people to do? It actually forces people to reenter the workforce so that they can start to make money. But the problem is that companies have been shrinking and have been on a defensive posture.

And so as a result, which you started to see this past unemployment report, unemployment is now ticking up because when these people reenter the workforce, there are no jobs for them to have. People are filing incremental unemployment insurance claims. States like California, in fact, the state of California was the worst off this past month.

And so as a result, which you started to see this past unemployment report, unemployment is now ticking up because when these people reenter the workforce, there are no jobs for them to have. People are filing incremental unemployment insurance claims. States like California, in fact, the state of California was the worst off this past month.

So I think what we're starting to see is that for the large portion of the economy, we've run out of cash to spend. And as a result, I do think that we are going to see an economic slowing.

So I think what we're starting to see is that for the large portion of the economy, we've run out of cash to spend. And as a result, I do think that we are going to see an economic slowing.

And I think that that will create not just enormous empirical justification for Jerome Powell, it'll be exacerbated by what Friedberg just showed, which is the political pressure that he's going to be under to cut Will it cause him to cut more aggressively than he would have otherwise? On the margins, I actually think yes.

And I think that that will create not just enormous empirical justification for Jerome Powell, it'll be exacerbated by what Friedberg just showed, which is the political pressure that he's going to be under to cut Will it cause him to cut more aggressively than he would have otherwise? On the margins, I actually think yes.

But my perspective is that I think that we've run out of money, individual people. So I think unemployment is going back up. I think GDP is going to shrink.

But my perspective is that I think that we've run out of money, individual people. So I think unemployment is going back up. I think GDP is going to shrink.

And so I kind of tend to be in this camp that we're going to see more than one rate cut.

And so I kind of tend to be in this camp that we're going to see more than one rate cut.

I think it's the legacy and the perception that he leaves behind. I think had he not... over-promised and under-delivered at the end of last year. Remember, he was promising, as Sachs said, six or seven rate cuts, and he's delivered bupkis. And the markets were none too pleased.

I think it's the legacy and the perception that he leaves behind. I think had he not... over-promised and under-delivered at the end of last year. Remember, he was promising, as Sachs said, six or seven rate cuts, and he's delivered bupkis. And the markets were none too pleased.

And so now I think he's just swung the pendulum to the other side, which is he's going to massively under-promise and then over-deliver if he can. And so as a result, I think he's being much more measured and guarded. I don't think he wants to be wrong here. So I think he's thinking about what most folks think about when they're at the tail end of a job like this.

And so now I think he's just swung the pendulum to the other side, which is he's going to massively under-promise and then over-deliver if he can. And so as a result, I think he's being much more measured and guarded. I don't think he wants to be wrong here. So I think he's thinking about what most folks think about when they're at the tail end of a job like this.

He's not going to get reappointed. He's going to go off into the sunset. It's roughly about how history will write how he handled the transition from that to the next phase, whatever that is. So I think he's probably very interested in making sure he doesn't break the economy and also that he doesn't seem like he's constantly waffling and unpredictable.

He's not going to get reappointed. He's going to go off into the sunset. It's roughly about how history will write how he handled the transition from that to the next phase, whatever that is. So I think he's probably very interested in making sure he doesn't break the economy and also that he doesn't seem like he's constantly waffling and unpredictable.

Yeah. All I could think of was, do I look like an ass by saying more? So that I just stay quiet. So more than 10K. I was like, well, you know, start with 50K. Let's just see what happens.

Yeah. All I could think of was, do I look like an ass by saying more? So that I just stay quiet. So more than 10K. I was like, well, you know, start with 50K. Let's just see what happens.

I feel like I lost 60K. I should have put 50. I would have put 50. I would have won 75.

I feel like I lost 60K. I should have put 50. I would have put 50. I would have won 75.

We could have a negative recessionary print going into the election cycle. I think that's very possible. Yeah, exactly.

We could have a negative recessionary print going into the election cycle. I think that's very possible. Yeah, exactly.

Wow.

Wow.

Pete and Peter are great guys. And our thoughts with Devin. Hope you guys find a cure.

Pete and Peter are great guys. And our thoughts with Devin. Hope you guys find a cure.

Yeah.

Yeah.

That's fantastic. Welcome to my country. I don't live in Canada anymore.

That's fantastic. Welcome to my country. I don't live in Canada anymore.

And how did you choose Calgary of all places in Canada?

And how did you choose Calgary of all places in Canada?

Yeah, I'll give you two observations. The first is that I think that there is a huge gap between how the media tries to portray Donald Trump and what he's like when you meet him in person. And that gap is really wide. And so I would say specifically to Democrats and independents, you really do need to sit in the room and feel what it's like. David is right. He is charismatic.

Yeah, I'll give you two observations. The first is that I think that there is a huge gap between how the media tries to portray Donald Trump and what he's like when you meet him in person. And that gap is really wide. And so I would say specifically to Democrats and independents, you really do need to sit in the room and feel what it's like. David is right. He is charismatic.

He's intellectually sharp, and he's funny. And when you put that together, he can engage an audience for a long time and be totally extemporaneous. The other thing I would say is that he is very polite and he's kind in a way that was disarming and was not what I expected. And so I felt that I had misjudged him many years in the past.

He's intellectually sharp, and he's funny. And when you put that together, he can engage an audience for a long time and be totally extemporaneous. The other thing I would say is that he is very polite and he's kind in a way that was disarming and was not what I expected. And so I felt that I had misjudged him many years in the past.

And so I was very glad that I had an opportunity to sit beside him and to actually interact with him one-on-one. It was really, really engaging. And so that's more about the style. And then about the substance, what I would say is, It was not just a pro-America agenda, but it's very clear that he was pro-innovation. So he was really supportive of AI in the details that he talked about.

And so I was very glad that I had an opportunity to sit beside him and to actually interact with him one-on-one. It was really, really engaging. And so that's more about the style. And then about the substance, what I would say is, It was not just a pro-America agenda, but it's very clear that he was pro-innovation. So he was really supportive of AI in the details that he talked about.

He was very supportive of crypto in those details. And he's very much low regulation, low taxation. And so when you put that together, it does stand very much in contrast with what the alternative is. And so I think that both of those things are a reason why, even if you aren't willing to vote for him, I would encourage everybody to experience what it's like to hear him.

He was very supportive of crypto in those details. And he's very much low regulation, low taxation. And so when you put that together, it does stand very much in contrast with what the alternative is. And so I think that both of those things are a reason why, even if you aren't willing to vote for him, I would encourage everybody to experience what it's like to hear him.

So it's us talking and he says, you guys are a really beautiful couple. Uh-oh. And I said, well, thank you. And then he turns to me and he goes, well, you must be really rich. And I started laughing out loud.

So it's us talking and he says, you guys are a really beautiful couple. Uh-oh. And I said, well, thank you. And then he turns to me and he goes, well, you must be really rich. And I started laughing out loud.

It's just arithmetic. You're going to pay for it with either economic contraction, higher taxes, or inflation. Those are the three places it goes. Yeah. And they did test it. They've stress tested now. Yeah.

It's just arithmetic. You're going to pay for it with either economic contraction, higher taxes, or inflation. Those are the three places it goes. Yeah. And they did test it. They've stress tested now. Yeah.

Yeah, that's exactly right. And then their federal spending gets compressed because now they have to service that debt. Again, they're already spending 25% of their federal budget on servicing existing debt with the low interest rates. And they've got to support an aging population.

Yeah, that's exactly right. And then their federal spending gets compressed because now they have to service that debt. Again, they're already spending 25% of their federal budget on servicing existing debt with the low interest rates. And they've got to support an aging population.

We're about a trillion a year with a proposed 7.3 trillion budget. So we're at 13.6%. And Japan is at 25%. Over the next 10 years, isn't our debt service supposed to rise to... Yeah, as all of the low interest bonds mature, and we issue new debt at a higher interest rate, our debt service cost is going to continue to climb.

We're about a trillion a year with a proposed 7.3 trillion budget. So we're at 13.6%. And Japan is at 25%. Over the next 10 years, isn't our debt service supposed to rise to... Yeah, as all of the low interest bonds mature, and we issue new debt at a higher interest rate, our debt service cost is going to continue to climb.

It's already higher than discretionary military spending at over a trillion a year.

It's already higher than discretionary military spending at over a trillion a year.

I think it shows how much leverage there is in this. Totally. That's what it is. It's all about leverage.

I think it shows how much leverage there is in this. Totally. That's what it is. It's all about leverage.

Leverage on leverage on leverage.

Leverage on leverage on leverage.

Yes, that's you in the women's category of boxing. In the women's boxing? Right.

Yes, that's you in the women's category of boxing. In the women's boxing? Right.

Thank you, J. Cole.

Thank you, J. Cole.

With this particular trade, JP Morgan yesterday or a few hours ago said that they think about... 75% of the yen carry trades have now been unwound. And it was at 50% a little over a day ago. So the market has moved to kind of unwind these trades, it seems, and we're pretty much at the end of the levered fallout of this particular activity. So I put the link here.

With this particular trade, JP Morgan yesterday or a few hours ago said that they think about... 75% of the yen carry trades have now been unwound. And it was at 50% a little over a day ago. So the market has moved to kind of unwind these trades, it seems, and we're pretty much at the end of the levered fallout of this particular activity. So I put the link here.

You're good. You're clear.

You're good. You're clear.

Obviously, you have to account for inflation and government spending. How much of government spending is driving economic growth? Today, the U.S. is proposing to spend $7.3 trillion next year out of $25 trillion GDP. So the US federal government is roughly 30% of GDP, and we obviously still are tackling inflation.

Obviously, you have to account for inflation and government spending. How much of government spending is driving economic growth? Today, the U.S. is proposing to spend $7.3 trillion next year out of $25 trillion GDP. So the US federal government is roughly 30% of GDP, and we obviously still are tackling inflation.

The real question is how much of the economy is growing because of productivity gains in the sector of the economy where people are making things and doing things versus the government using its ability to tax and borrow

The real question is how much of the economy is growing because of productivity gains in the sector of the economy where people are making things and doing things versus the government using its ability to tax and borrow

drive growth in the economy by inflating numbers, by pushing revenue onto businesses, by pushing capital into the markets, by creating levered trades in the markets using their borrowing capacity and their taxing capacity. So that's the thing I remain concerned about. I mentioned this last week. I remain highly concerned about many sectors of the economy that are deeply challenged right now.

drive growth in the economy by inflating numbers, by pushing revenue onto businesses, by pushing capital into the markets, by creating levered trades in the markets using their borrowing capacity and their taxing capacity. So that's the thing I remain concerned about. I mentioned this last week. I remain highly concerned about many sectors of the economy that are deeply challenged right now.

particularly the industrial sectors, the manufacturing sectors, the agricultural sectors, but services and software sectors where you can raise prices and you have a nice high margin business, you can continue to grow and look good. But there are many parts of the global economy and the US economy that are pretty challenged right now.

particularly the industrial sectors, the manufacturing sectors, the agricultural sectors, but services and software sectors where you can raise prices and you have a nice high margin business, you can continue to grow and look good. But there are many parts of the global economy and the US economy that are pretty challenged right now.

Let me get that off. Okay, good.

Let me get that off. Okay, good.

That's a small percentage of the economy, J. Cal. That's a few tech companies. but much of the manufacturing sector, the industrial sector, the ag markets, like there's a lot of markets where you don't have this option to just cut knowledge workers. The knowledge worker economy, the software economy has the ability to do that.

That's a small percentage of the economy, J. Cal. That's a few tech companies. but much of the manufacturing sector, the industrial sector, the ag markets, like there's a lot of markets where you don't have this option to just cut knowledge workers. The knowledge worker economy, the software economy has the ability to do that.

The tech economy can do that, but much of the rest of the economy doesn't have a lot of maneuverability like we do in this fast growth. high margin kind of industry we work in.

The tech economy can do that, but much of the rest of the economy doesn't have a lot of maneuverability like we do in this fast growth. high margin kind of industry we work in.

shift in management and how they run these companies. That's about reduced forecast, right? So when their revenue decline, when their revenue forecasts have to be cut, they have to cut headcount. That's different than creating more efficiency.

shift in management and how they run these companies. That's about reduced forecast, right? So when their revenue decline, when their revenue forecasts have to be cut, they have to cut headcount. That's different than creating more efficiency.

But I mean, it's obviously- That's a loss of jobs and a loss of growth, right? So just to be clear, when you cut stores, you have less growth. When you cut jobs, that's because you don't have as much revenue growth. So those are about- But earnings can go up, right? They can be supported, but you're still facing contraction.

But I mean, it's obviously- That's a loss of jobs and a loss of growth, right? So just to be clear, when you cut stores, you have less growth. When you cut jobs, that's because you don't have as much revenue growth. So those are about- But earnings can go up, right? They can be supported, but you're still facing contraction.

And one of the challenges right now, a lot of food companies, a lot of retail companies have been raising prices to try and keep earnings going up, but there's hitting this natural inflection point where consumers no longer buy, where you find this tipping point.

And one of the challenges right now, a lot of food companies, a lot of retail companies have been raising prices to try and keep earnings going up, but there's hitting this natural inflection point where consumers no longer buy, where you find this tipping point.

I don't know if you guys have been to the supermarket lately, but man, it is crazy expensive how prices have gone up like 50 to 100% on everything at the supermarket. And this is like, it's basically impossible. We can deal with it, but like a large percentage of people, this is a big deal in terms of like, now you have to budget your life and you spend less.

I don't know if you guys have been to the supermarket lately, but man, it is crazy expensive how prices have gone up like 50 to 100% on everything at the supermarket. And this is like, it's basically impossible. We can deal with it, but like a large percentage of people, this is a big deal in terms of like, now you have to budget your life and you spend less.

But I do think that there's going to be government programs to mitigate the effects, meaning you could see the markets, the equity markets continue to rally on some of the government programs and government activity, which has become kind of like the learned behavior. It's like Pavlovian. It's like we have an economic problem. The government steps in and spends money.

But I do think that there's going to be government programs to mitigate the effects, meaning you could see the markets, the equity markets continue to rally on some of the government programs and government activity, which has become kind of like the learned behavior. It's like Pavlovian. It's like we have an economic problem. The government steps in and spends money.

Let me get an answer from Sachs.

Let me get an answer from Sachs.

Unless the government spends money, which has been the counterbalance, right? And that's a lot of why governments – and by the way, I have a theory on this. I think this is also why we have an open border policy.

Unless the government spends money, which has been the counterbalance, right? And that's a lot of why governments – and by the way, I have a theory on this. I think this is also why we have an open border policy.

or why the current administration has pushed an open border policy, because that can also be deflationary to counteract the effects of the interest rate accrual because it lowers wages overall and fills jobs. It increases the workforce, et cetera, creates more competitive workforce. But no one's allowed to publicly say that.

or why the current administration has pushed an open border policy, because that can also be deflationary to counteract the effects of the interest rate accrual because it lowers wages overall and fills jobs. It increases the workforce, et cetera, creates more competitive workforce. But no one's allowed to publicly say that.

And I do think that that's one of the primary motivating factors of having an open border policy.

And I do think that that's one of the primary motivating factors of having an open border policy.

That's the fundamental problem, right? They're too affluent.

That's the fundamental problem, right? They're too affluent.

Right. And I'm not making an argument one way or the other. I'm just highlighting, I think that this is one of the motivators for the policy.

Right. And I'm not making an argument one way or the other. I'm just highlighting, I think that this is one of the motivators for the policy.

Zach, you just said not to get political.

Zach, you just said not to get political.

Zach starts out by saying, yeah, not to get political, but Biden. This is just a fact. It's just fact.

Zach starts out by saying, yeah, not to get political, but Biden. This is just a fact. It's just fact.

I was about to give him an award for saying not to get political and moving on.

I was about to give him an award for saying not to get political and moving on.

It's a great, great read. There it is.

It's a great, great read. There it is.

So Freebark, take us through this. Well, so it looks like since the start of the year, they've sold 55% of their holdings in Apple. And if you look at the end of the year, Nick, if you could pull up this image with the pie chart, this is what Berkshire's stock holdings were in their non-majority owned businesses. So businesses that they don't own the business outright. Right.

So Freebark, take us through this. Well, so it looks like since the start of the year, they've sold 55% of their holdings in Apple. And if you look at the end of the year, Nick, if you could pull up this image with the pie chart, this is what Berkshire's stock holdings were in their non-majority owned businesses. So businesses that they don't own the business outright. Right.

and 50% of their portfolio was in Apple at $174 billion. We obviously saw Apple's stock price peak, highest level ever just a few days ago. But it has since come down as it was reported that since the start of the year now, Berkshire sold 55% of this position. So some people are arguing that they've got a point of view on the company strategy and competitive kind of landscape.

and 50% of their portfolio was in Apple at $174 billion. We obviously saw Apple's stock price peak, highest level ever just a few days ago. But it has since come down as it was reported that since the start of the year now, Berkshire sold 55% of this position. So some people are arguing that they've got a point of view on the company strategy and competitive kind of landscape.

Some folks have argued that the valuation multiple has gotten too high, trading at nearly 30 times earnings. The stock has risen 900% since Berkshire bought the stock in 2016. Nine bagger. Nicely done. And some people would argue that the percent of the portfolio is too high at over 50%, as you can see here, at the start of the year. But I'll kind of provide some of the counter arguments.

Some folks have argued that the valuation multiple has gotten too high, trading at nearly 30 times earnings. The stock has risen 900% since Berkshire bought the stock in 2016. Nine bagger. Nicely done. And some people would argue that the percent of the portfolio is too high at over 50%, as you can see here, at the start of the year. But I'll kind of provide some of the counter arguments.

Warren Buffett does not do much analysis on corporate strategy when he provides reviews of the stocks that he's picked. He often finds and talks a lot about great managers that generate great returns and he sticks with them. And he sticks with them sometimes for many, many decades. The management in this company has not changed.

Warren Buffett does not do much analysis on corporate strategy when he provides reviews of the stocks that he's picked. He often finds and talks a lot about great managers that generate great returns and he sticks with them. And he sticks with them sometimes for many, many decades. The management in this company has not changed.

The return profile on cash invested and cash returned has only improved since he put money in. They're generating more cash flow. They're offering more dividends. They're doing more stock buybacks. And he's happy to be concentrated. Over the years, he's made large bets on single companies to the point that sometimes he just outright buys the entire company like he did with Geico. in 1996.

The return profile on cash invested and cash returned has only improved since he put money in. They're generating more cash flow. They're offering more dividends. They're doing more stock buybacks. And he's happy to be concentrated. Over the years, he's made large bets on single companies to the point that sometimes he just outright buys the entire company like he did with Geico. in 1996.

He always talks a lot about finding a company that is run by great managers, that has a premium product with a nice high margin and a durable moat, strong brand value. As I look at kind of what's really gone on here, it feels to me like the difference between Apple and some of the other big holdings in its portfolio is that many of those other businesses are regulated monopolies.

He always talks a lot about finding a company that is run by great managers, that has a premium product with a nice high margin and a durable moat, strong brand value. As I look at kind of what's really gone on here, it feels to me like the difference between Apple and some of the other big holdings in its portfolio is that many of those other businesses are regulated monopolies.

So BNSF Railway is regulated by the Federal Railroad Administration. Berkshire Energy, which owns MidAmerican, is a regulated utility. The prices that they charge consumers are set by the government. So they have a market that's locked in. The prices are set, they have locked in distribution, they have locked in utility value. And the same is true in the insurance business.

So BNSF Railway is regulated by the Federal Railroad Administration. Berkshire Energy, which owns MidAmerican, is a regulated utility. The prices that they charge consumers are set by the government. So they have a market that's locked in. The prices are set, they have locked in distribution, they have locked in utility value. And the same is true in the insurance business.

Geico's rates are approved and set effectively by state regulators. Berkshire has a moat because they've got the largest capital base and they've got this machine that just keeps generating cash. And the rates are publicly set by government. Apple, however, is not regulated.

Geico's rates are approved and set effectively by state regulators. Berkshire has a moat because they've got the largest capital base and they've got this machine that just keeps generating cash. And the rates are publicly set by government. Apple, however, is not regulated.

And it is very clear that Apple is facing very deep and severe financial impact from the regulatory authorities that are overseeing the business. So if you look at the Google antitrust, we're going to get into the Google deal in a second. Yeah. There's a real regulatory risk there because Google's paying Apple $20 billion a year to be the default search engine.

And it is very clear that Apple is facing very deep and severe financial impact from the regulatory authorities that are overseeing the business. So if you look at the Google antitrust, we're going to get into the Google deal in a second. Yeah. There's a real regulatory risk there because Google's paying Apple $20 billion a year to be the default search engine.

Apple also has a very deep relationship with China. They have a lot of manufacturing being done in China, and they sell a lot of product into China. So as regulators start to take a harder look, as they've said they're going to, at companies' relationships with China, that's a real risk to Apple. advertising, tracking users, and then the subscription fees that are charged to consumers.

Apple also has a very deep relationship with China. They have a lot of manufacturing being done in China, and they sell a lot of product into China. So as regulators start to take a harder look, as they've said they're going to, at companies' relationships with China, that's a real risk to Apple. advertising, tracking users, and then the subscription fees that are charged to consumers.

And most importantly, we've talked a lot about the 30% VIG that Apple takes on their app store and how regulators are now stepping in and take a look at this. So because this business is not yet a regulated monopoly, it may be a monopoly in many senses of the word, it's not regulated yet. And that transition could be financially painful for Apple.

And most importantly, we've talked a lot about the 30% VIG that Apple takes on their app store and how regulators are now stepping in and take a look at this. So because this business is not yet a regulated monopoly, it may be a monopoly in many senses of the word, it's not regulated yet. And that transition could be financially painful for Apple.

Once they get to the other side, it starts to look a lot more like a large scale Berkshire type business. So that's my kind of summary take on what's going on with Apple. I don't know if you guys agree.

Once they get to the other side, it starts to look a lot more like a large scale Berkshire type business. So that's my kind of summary take on what's going on with Apple. I don't know if you guys agree.

Once you're regulated, you know what the prices are, you know what you can do, you know where you can go, and all that risk is off the table. That's what is a feature of all of those other monopolies he owns, is that the government has a role in it, so it's a highly predictable business.

Once you're regulated, you know what the prices are, you know what you can do, you know where you can go, and all that risk is off the table. That's what is a feature of all of those other monopolies he owns, is that the government has a role in it, so it's a highly predictable business.

Well, I mean, what's crazy is that Apple is still up to 214. which is 11%, 12% higher than it was at the start of this year at 185. The stock is just coming off of its all-time highs at 230 a share. So it's just barely off the all-time highs.

Well, I mean, what's crazy is that Apple is still up to 214. which is 11%, 12% higher than it was at the start of this year at 185. The stock is just coming off of its all-time highs at 230 a share. So it's just barely off the all-time highs.

Yeah, the Guardians often rank right. So there's another two.

Yeah, the Guardians often rank right. So there's another two.

There's very little kind of editorialization going on with respect to showing the rankings of the new sources. The ranking of the new sources is typically set by some ranking algorithm. The algorithm is usually around click-throughs, views, popularity of the sites, how many visitors there are. So there are other metrics that drive the order. So for example, if NBC, CNN,

There's very little kind of editorialization going on with respect to showing the rankings of the new sources. The ranking of the new sources is typically set by some ranking algorithm. The algorithm is usually around click-throughs, views, popularity of the sites, how many visitors there are. So there are other metrics that drive the order. So for example, if NBC, CNN,

Fox News all have kind of higher rankings than some smaller publication, they're going to end up higher in the ranking out there and because they have a higher quality score. There's also measures on how often people click through and come back the bounce back rate. So if they click through an article and then come back, that can actually

Fox News all have kind of higher rankings than some smaller publication, they're going to end up higher in the ranking out there and because they have a higher quality score. There's also measures on how often people click through and come back the bounce back rate. So if they click through an article and then come back, that can actually

reduce the ranking versus if they click through and stay on the site. So there's a lot of factors that go into the ranking algorithm. The thing that probably upsets people is that there isn't any transparency into this. So there's no understanding on how these things are ranked, how they're set. And it's probably very good guidance and feedback that there should be more transparency and openness.

reduce the ranking versus if they click through and stay on the site. So there's a lot of factors that go into the ranking algorithm. The thing that probably upsets people is that there isn't any transparency into this. So there's no understanding on how these things are ranked, how they're set. And it's probably very good guidance and feedback that there should be more transparency and openness.

And I'm not necessarily trying to defend anyone's product or behavior. I'm just saying that there's certainly a lack of understanding on why one thing is being shown versus another.

And I'm not necessarily trying to defend anyone's product or behavior. I'm just saying that there's certainly a lack of understanding on why one thing is being shown versus another.

I'll also say, Sax, that there's probably the case, or there might be the case, that there's many more sites potentially putting out pro-Harris articles than there are putting out pro-Trump articles, which can start to overweight the algorithm, as you know, or overweight the rankings that are showing up.

I'll also say, Sax, that there's probably the case, or there might be the case, that there's many more sites potentially putting out pro-Harris articles than there are putting out pro-Trump articles, which can start to overweight the algorithm, as you know, or overweight the rankings that are showing up.

So that might also be feeding into this, that the general news media bias is what you're actually seeing versus a Google bias. Correct.

So that might also be feeding into this, that the general news media bias is what you're actually seeing versus a Google bias. Correct.

And I agree 100% as I explained.

And I agree 100% as I explained.

There needs to be more investment in journalists by Republicans. There are so many more liberal journalists and there's so many more liberal media outlets out there. 20 to 1, at least. It's probably 20 to 1.

There needs to be more investment in journalists by Republicans. There are so many more liberal journalists and there's so many more liberal media outlets out there. 20 to 1, at least. It's probably 20 to 1.

Of course, all of tech is deeply biased towards the Democratic Party.

Of course, all of tech is deeply biased towards the Democratic Party.

There's definitely, again, there's meant to not be an editorial process, but there certainly is tweaking of rankings.

There's definitely, again, there's meant to not be an editorial process, but there certainly is tweaking of rankings.

I'm just saying, we've all made a huge leap in this conversation from talking about an antitrust ruling, which I will speak to very specifically in a minute, to, oh my God, tech is biased. That's what's driving the sense of the nation. I don't know if you've noticed, Sax, but more than half the nation is going to vote for Donald Trump. More than half, like nearly 60%.

I'm just saying, we've all made a huge leap in this conversation from talking about an antitrust ruling, which I will speak to very specifically in a minute, to, oh my God, tech is biased. That's what's driving the sense of the nation. I don't know if you've noticed, Sax, but more than half the nation is going to vote for Donald Trump. More than half, like nearly 60%.

Well, call it balance in the force then, I guess. Hold on a second.

Well, call it balance in the force then, I guess. Hold on a second.

Okay, well, let's come back. So I think that everyone has what Sachs is speaking to is a deeply rooted feeling held by politicians, held by regulators on one side of the aisle or the other, When Democrats feel shunned by the search engine or by Twitter or by Facebook, they raise their hand and they say, let's regulate these guys.

Okay, well, let's come back. So I think that everyone has what Sachs is speaking to is a deeply rooted feeling held by politicians, held by regulators on one side of the aisle or the other, When Democrats feel shunned by the search engine or by Twitter or by Facebook, they raise their hand and they say, let's regulate these guys.

When Republicans feel shunned because they're not showing up in the news rankings or the algorithms, they feel, let's regulate these guys. When it actually comes down to the court case, here is what is being described. When you go to Apple and you type in a couple of words in the URL bar, that you want to search for because we've all gotten used to this.

When Republicans feel shunned because they're not showing up in the news rankings or the algorithms, they feel, let's regulate these guys. When it actually comes down to the court case, here is what is being described. When you go to Apple and you type in a couple of words in the URL bar, that you want to search for because we've all gotten used to this.

You guys may not remember this, but nearly 20 years ago, when browsers first came out on desktops and on mobile phones, you would not be able to just search by typing into the URL bar. You would have to type in a web search engine in the URL bar, hit go, and then you go to their search box and you type in your result.

You guys may not remember this, but nearly 20 years ago, when browsers first came out on desktops and on mobile phones, you would not be able to just search by typing into the URL bar. You would have to type in a web search engine in the URL bar, hit go, and then you go to their search box and you type in your result.

What happened around the mid 2000s, 2004, 2005, is you suddenly were able to type in a couple of words into the URL bar of a browser and hit go, and it would give you search results. The question is what search engine did it give you those results from? And that's what this lawsuit is about. Google started to pay companies like Apple

What happened around the mid 2000s, 2004, 2005, is you suddenly were able to type in a couple of words into the URL bar of a browser and hit go, and it would give you search results. The question is what search engine did it give you those results from? And that's what this lawsuit is about. Google started to pay companies like Apple

to make Google the default search engine when you would type in a couple of words and hit go into the URL bar, because search became the primary way of surfing the internet, not typing in a URL and going to it. And then when they started doing that, they started to see more search traffic. Now, the real question from an antitrust perspective is did Google,

to make Google the default search engine when you would type in a couple of words and hit go into the URL bar, because search became the primary way of surfing the internet, not typing in a URL and going to it. And then when they started doing that, they started to see more search traffic. Now, the real question from an antitrust perspective is did Google,

leverage its monopoly to pay to continue to be the default search engine to lock in the search market and prevent competition by doing this.

leverage its monopoly to pay to continue to be the default search engine to lock in the search market and prevent competition by doing this.

The judge said yes. Google is monopolizing search because they're paying to lock in the ability to type in to get the default on the search bar. By the way, you can go into the settings and change it. But what would the other default be?

The judge said yes. Google is monopolizing search because they're paying to lock in the ability to type in to get the default on the search bar. By the way, you can go into the settings and change it. But what would the other default be?

I get it. Let me finish. So if they were to then say, let's make sure Google can't do that again. What's the search engine? Is it Bing? Is it Apple's search engine?

I get it. Let me finish. So if they were to then say, let's make sure Google can't do that again. What's the search engine? Is it Bing? Is it Apple's search engine?

Because then there would be an antitrust claim to say that if there is a default search engine without the consumer having to actively choose what their search engine is, someone is monopolizing the install base that Apple has or the install base that whomever has where they are becoming the default search engine.

Because then there would be an antitrust claim to say that if there is a default search engine without the consumer having to actively choose what their search engine is, someone is monopolizing the install base that Apple has or the install base that whomever has where they are becoming the default search engine.

Now, to your point, like the ability for the judge to then say, you know what, this is one action of many that you are taking to monopolize search. Let's go ahead and figure out how we can prevent you from monopolizing search. And this is really focused on search. It becomes a very hard leap to say, let's break up the company. There's bias in the newsfeed that you guys are ranking.

Now, to your point, like the ability for the judge to then say, you know what, this is one action of many that you are taking to monopolize search. Let's go ahead and figure out how we can prevent you from monopolizing search. And this is really focused on search. It becomes a very hard leap to say, let's break up the company. There's bias in the newsfeed that you guys are ranking.

This has nothing to do with search engine rankings. It has nothing to do with owning YouTube. It has nothing to do with like owning cloud. It has everything to do with Google monopolizing the search business, which is the biggest business on the internet. I do think that they go, that's where that gets narrowed and where there's a lot of paths, but I question what path is there going to be?

This has nothing to do with search engine rankings. It has nothing to do with owning YouTube. It has nothing to do with like owning cloud. It has everything to do with Google monopolizing the search business, which is the biggest business on the internet. I do think that they go, that's where that gets narrowed and where there's a lot of paths, but I question what path is there going to be?

It's not going to be antitrust triggering.

It's not going to be antitrust triggering.

Like with Microsoft, if I remember right, it was an agreed settlement. Like ultimately they signed.

Like with Microsoft, if I remember right, it was an agreed settlement. Like ultimately they signed.

No, I think you're right. And I think the reason you're right is because of how inflamed Sachs is. Because the way that Sachs feels, I think, is the way that every politician feels.

No, I think you're right. And I think the reason you're right is because of how inflamed Sachs is. Because the way that Sachs feels, I think, is the way that every politician feels.

No, I know. I think that's where everyone wants it to go.

No, I know. I think that's where everyone wants it to go.

I'm going to make my final statement. There's a strong, I agree with you and I'm not trying to defend Google and I'm not trying to defend some outcome here. I think you guys are correct.

I'm going to make my final statement. There's a strong, I agree with you and I'm not trying to defend Google and I'm not trying to defend some outcome here. I think you guys are correct.

I think that because of how inflamed people are at the influence that these companies have, Meta and Twitter and Google, there is going to be a strong push to do a lot more than what the narrow focus of the ruling in this particular case to do something much more significant to hurt these companies and make them less influential and less powerful. Facts. Anything to add?

I think that because of how inflamed people are at the influence that these companies have, Meta and Twitter and Google, there is going to be a strong push to do a lot more than what the narrow focus of the ruling in this particular case to do something much more significant to hurt these companies and make them less influential and less powerful. Facts. Anything to add?

They could showcase that, you're saying.

They could showcase that, you're saying.

This is the steak for two.

This is the steak for two.

Let's go right to the anti-Semitism claims. I'm not going to make that proclamation. I don't know what Vice President Harris's decision-making process was, I don't know who she talked to, what she cared about, if she cared, if she was even in charge, I have no idea.

Let's go right to the anti-Semitism claims. I'm not going to make that proclamation. I don't know what Vice President Harris's decision-making process was, I don't know who she talked to, what she cared about, if she cared, if she was even in charge, I have no idea.

All I know is that there have been other conversations I've been privy to behind closed doors where senior people have been passed over because they are Jewish and because of the concerns of someone Jewish being viewed to be in a leadership position in an organization and the impact that that might have, that there is a brewing distrust as a result of the conflict in Gaza.

All I know is that there have been other conversations I've been privy to behind closed doors where senior people have been passed over because they are Jewish and because of the concerns of someone Jewish being viewed to be in a leadership position in an organization and the impact that that might have, that there is a brewing distrust as a result of the conflict in Gaza.

We are sold out. We might do a little overflow. Just because we know people don't show up. So we might do a little bit of a last minute kind of overflow ticket sale. But we are sold out of seats.

We are sold out. We might do a little overflow. Just because we know people don't show up. So we might do a little bit of a last minute kind of overflow ticket sale. But we are sold out of seats.

Everybody is asking me, what party outfits do I need? The first night's party, we're going to have Top Gun beach volleyball. And we're going to have Back to the Future. All the scenes from Back to the Future for the second party. I can't wait to see what J. Cal wears.

Everybody is asking me, what party outfits do I need? The first night's party, we're going to have Top Gun beach volleyball. And we're going to have Back to the Future. All the scenes from Back to the Future for the second party. I can't wait to see what J. Cal wears.

Actually, you should go as Biff. Hands off her, Biff.

Actually, you should go as Biff. Hands off her, Biff.

One of the biggest challenges facing Japan is the level of debt that they've accrued their debt to GDP ratio is currently 263%. They have about 1.3 quadrillion yen of public debt on an annual GDP of about 591 trillion yen. They're currently at the federal level, spending about 20% of GDP per year, 5% of GDP is being spent per year, just on servicing the existing debt.

One of the biggest challenges facing Japan is the level of debt that they've accrued their debt to GDP ratio is currently 263%. They have about 1.3 quadrillion yen of public debt on an annual GDP of about 591 trillion yen. They're currently at the federal level, spending about 20% of GDP per year, 5% of GDP is being spent per year, just on servicing the existing debt.

And that's at interest rates set by the central bank of roughly 0%. So you know, or whatever the market is trading it at, so slightly above 0%. But if the central bank had to start to raise rates, because inflation started to run away, because there's so much again in circulation, there's so much debt outstanding, the federal government would not be able to actually service this debt.

And that's at interest rates set by the central bank of roughly 0%. So you know, or whatever the market is trading it at, so slightly above 0%. But if the central bank had to start to raise rates, because inflation started to run away, because there's so much again in circulation, there's so much debt outstanding, the federal government would not be able to actually service this debt.

Well, I mean, listen, a lot has happened since I've been gone.

Well, I mean, listen, a lot has happened since I've been gone.

So as of March of 2024, the Bank of Japan, the central bank actually holds 53% of Japan's outstanding government bonds. which is equal to about 100% of Japan's GDP.

So as of March of 2024, the Bank of Japan, the central bank actually holds 53% of Japan's outstanding government bonds. which is equal to about 100% of Japan's GDP.

So their central bank has bought the debt that's being issued by the federal government to fund their budget, a large chunk of which right now is being spent just on paying the interest on the debt, while interest rates are close to 0%.

So their central bank has bought the debt that's being issued by the federal government to fund their budget, a large chunk of which right now is being spent just on paying the interest on the debt, while interest rates are close to 0%.

So imagine if interest rates bumped up to one, two, three, four, 5%, as we're seeing with US treasuries, we were recently at a nearly 5% handle on the 10-year treasury. it would become an unsustainable debt burden for the Japanese government to be able to handle that. And a large part of this is being driven by a number of crises that Japan has faced since the early 90s.

So imagine if interest rates bumped up to one, two, three, four, 5%, as we're seeing with US treasuries, we were recently at a nearly 5% handle on the 10-year treasury. it would become an unsustainable debt burden for the Japanese government to be able to handle that. And a large part of this is being driven by a number of crises that Japan has faced since the early 90s.

Did you guys sneeze? Oh, my God.

Did you guys sneeze? Oh, my God.

So there was the financial crisis in 08, there was the nuclear meltdown, there was a couple of earthquakes, tsunamis, and a lot of debt has been taken on to support the country after those crises. But really importantly, and Nick, if you could just pull up this age chart, is the aging of the Japanese population.

So there was the financial crisis in 08, there was the nuclear meltdown, there was a couple of earthquakes, tsunamis, and a lot of debt has been taken on to support the country after those crises. But really importantly, and Nick, if you could just pull up this age chart, is the aging of the Japanese population.

So this chart shows that, and you can kind of see back to 1950 when the average age in Japan was 21 years old. And today the average age in Japan is around 48. You know, in the next decade, it'll be 50, then it'll be 52. So that means more and more people are relying on public pension. Today, 33% of their government spending goes towards their social security programs.

So this chart shows that, and you can kind of see back to 1950 when the average age in Japan was 21 years old. And today the average age in Japan is around 48. You know, in the next decade, it'll be 50, then it'll be 52. So that means more and more people are relying on public pension. Today, 33% of their government spending goes towards their social security programs.

In the US for comparison, social security is about 20% of federal spending. So that number is only getting bigger and bigger. As the population ages, the Japanese government has to continue to service their older population And they've had to face several crises. Their debt has ballooned to a level that is well beyond any other industrialized nation.

In the US for comparison, social security is about 20% of federal spending. So that number is only getting bigger and bigger. As the population ages, the Japanese government has to continue to service their older population And they've had to face several crises. Their debt has ballooned to a level that is well beyond any other industrialized nation.

And the only way to continue to service that debt economically is to keep interest rates low. And the problem with keeping interest rate low? Inflation. And that's the big driver that caused them to say, let's uptake the interest by 15 bps or 25 bps is to try and tackle the inflation problem they're facing, just like our central bank recently tried to do the same.

And the only way to continue to service that debt economically is to keep interest rates low. And the problem with keeping interest rate low? Inflation. And that's the big driver that caused them to say, let's uptake the interest by 15 bps or 25 bps is to try and tackle the inflation problem they're facing, just like our central bank recently tried to do the same.

I think there's a lot of sports that should be regular. It's like the pistol shooting guy.

I think there's a lot of sports that should be regular. It's like the pistol shooting guy.

But clearly the market can't have it. So Japan is in a real pickle. And I think that it shows how much having a large amount of federal debt can impact the ability for a nation to maneuver itself during difficult times. And ultimately, debt payments come due. They come due either in the form of economic contraction or massive taxes or inflation.

But clearly the market can't have it. So Japan is in a real pickle. And I think that it shows how much having a large amount of federal debt can impact the ability for a nation to maneuver itself during difficult times. And ultimately, debt payments come due. They come due either in the form of economic contraction or massive taxes or inflation.

And currently, Japan is paying for it in terms of inflation.

And currently, Japan is paying for it in terms of inflation.

The government raised rates to tackle inflation. I'll pull up the inflation chart. Japan's inflation hit a 40-year high, and this just shot up in the last 18 months. Inflation is running at close to 4% a year.

The government raised rates to tackle inflation. I'll pull up the inflation chart. Japan's inflation hit a 40-year high, and this just shot up in the last 18 months. Inflation is running at close to 4% a year.

Well, their central bank has to buy most of the debt and their central bank sets the rates. So they have a large amount, 53% of their public debt is held by their central bank.

Well, their central bank has to buy most of the debt and their central bank sets the rates. So they have a large amount, 53% of their public debt is held by their central bank.

Well, yeah, while rates are low, you see this, you know, particularly in a market like we're facing today where there's global inflation, they need to raise rates in order to reduce inflation. The problem with raising rates is this, you know, this currency problem.

Well, yeah, while rates are low, you see this, you know, particularly in a market like we're facing today where there's global inflation, they need to raise rates in order to reduce inflation. The problem with raising rates is this, you know, this currency problem.

No pants. There's no pants.

No pants. There's no pants.

Let your winners ride.

Let your winners ride.

Love you, boys. I gotcha.

Love you, boys. I gotcha.

Wet your feet. We need to get merch.

Wet your feet. We need to get merch.