Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
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Is the current market rally driven by a Trump rally or a Bessent put?
So typically what's happened is you can cry to the White House and they'll call the Federal Reserve and they will buy it. That's the Fed put. And in some very rare cases, when things get really calamitous, like in 2008, Treasury will set up a program and start to buy things. That's what was called TARP back in the GFC. So the question is, is there a put here? I mean, my honest answer is no. And the simple reason is, if you look at where we are, the stock market's back to where we were in like May or August of last year. And if you had said that we would have upended 50 years of economic policy and the markets would only be off 500 or 600 basis points, I would have been shocked. So there's no reason for a put. Maybe the more interesting question is who's asking for the put?
The ones that have suffered from the volatility. And a lot of those are the active market traders. So if you trace the feedback, who has been the most negative? Hackman's been negative. Ken Griffin recently turned negative. And that probably comes from the fact that they're not monetizing the vol the way that they used to monetize the vol more than the market has speared down to such a degree that the world is coming to an end because it isn't.
What is the significance of China's thorium discovery for energy science?
Okay, welcome back to the All In podcast. J-Cal is not here this week. He is off in Detroit at the Knicks game. Congrats to the Knicks. Here's a photo of our boy J-Cal hanging out with, who's that, Ben Stiller?
Man, what happened to Ben Stiller? That looks like Chalamet right next to him.
Timothée Chalamet. Is that Chalamet? I think so. Chalamet. Chalamet.
You know, Ben Stiller was once referred to as the Jewish Tom Cruise, but he has not held up like Tom Cruise. I got to say that. He should have joined the Church of Scientology. Come on, man. Keep it up. You got to represent for us a little better.
sitting in this week is our boy andrew ross sorkin journalist author extraordinaire andrew welcome to the show long time listener first time caller thank you for having me
Andrew, I'm going to do just a couple of quick plugs, and I'm going to give it over to the pro to do his work, take us through the docket today. I think this is going to be really fun. The world's greatest moderator. The world's greatest moderator is here today.
That's fighting words. Shots fired. We'll see. Hold your tongue. You can tell me when it's over.
Before we kick it off, I just want to give a quick plug. The All In Summit, if you haven't seen the video, check it out on YouTube and Twitter. Going into our fourth year... The 2024 recap will kind of give you a set of highlights from last year. It's September 7th through 9th in LA, trying to have the world's most important conversations. Andrew, I know it probably competes with one or two of your conferences, but let me just tell you, this one's way better. We're going to be blowing it out this year with parties, allin.com slash summit to apply to join us at the summit this year. Awesome. Andrew, thanks for being here. We're excited to have you.
Okay, boys, here we go. I'm curious. I want to get your take on all this stuff because I'm fascinated by what's going on in these markets this week. Let's start on the markets because we've got a rally. The question I think behind the rally is, is this Besant put? Is this Jay Powell's in the job? He's got a put on this thing. I don't know what you think is going on. We're up 3% to 7% for the week. There's been a she loves me, she loves me not situation with what Trump's been saying about China and whether there's a deal or not a deal. China's saying nobody's talking. He says everybody's talking. What do you guys think is really happening? And then we got to get into Alphabet. We got Tesla. We got a lot of earnings here that's also moving this around.
I think that the most important piece of financial logic that we have to break is this idea that there is always a put. The put is this weird thing, just for the folks that don't understand it, is that when the market goes down, somebody can bellyache and cry and somebody in the government will say, okay, we'll buy your shitty securities at your bad prices. So that's what the put is.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
Is the current market rally driven by a Trump rally or a Bessent put?
3:02–17:10
2
What are the implications of US-China trade tensions and tariffs on the economy?
17:10–48:47
3
How are tariffs and trade policies affecting the American brand and Apple's investment in India?
48:47–1:10:20
4
What is the balance of power dynamic in global politics, especially regarding Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks?
1:10:20
5
How resilient is Alphabet and what challenges does Google's Gemini face?
0:00
6
What is the impact of Elon Musk's return to Tesla and its strategic moves away from Dogecoin?
0:00
7
What is the significance of China's thorium discovery for energy science?
0:00–1:29:30
Speakers
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