American Soccer Analysis
Episodes
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Playoffs Preview, Part I
05 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The playoffs are set! The top four finished the season strong and look like they'll make it to the semifinals with ease. Or will they? The guys previe...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: A USWNT Round-Up, and Our NWSL Awards Ballots!
29 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Then, they break down their picks for the NWSL awards slate. Most of these are no-brainers, but they make a case for some down-ballot candidates, foll...
ASA Show - Previewing the Best of 3 Round in the MLS Playoffs
24 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Playoffs, they’re here! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
NWSL Week 25: Louisville, Portland, and all the Playoff Scenarios Fit to Print
22 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Racing Louisville grabbed all three points against the Portland Thorns thanks to a late corner header from Taylor Flint. Their playoff hopes are still...
NWSL Week 24: "Stop Laughing, The Chicago Red Stars Suck!!!" And Other Ravings of a Madman
15 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Chicago Red Stars own one of the worst xG differentials in league history. Only the Utah Royals have played worse in total this season. But Chicag...
ASA Show - End of Season Awards and the First Ever ASA Brown Liquor Special
09 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The boys poured out the good stuff and got into awards voting as they decide the actual ASA awards ballot in real time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.co...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 23 -- The Portland Thorns, Racing Louisville, and the Dangling Thread of the Playoff Line
08 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We have got some things to cover, here! The guys get into the news of Angel City's fines and suspensions for salary cap violations, the firing of form...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 22 -- Bay FC are Doing the Damn Thing
01 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
A scrappy 1-0 victory on the road to the Seattle Reign may not look like much, but Bay FC are creeping closer and closer to a playoff berth, only a fe...
ASA Show - New Playoff Simulation Odds, and 22 Under 22
27 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Ben, Harrison, and Kieran talk the latest MLS playoff odds to descend from the Heavens above (Matthias’ laptop), and some unsung heroes from the 22U...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 21 -- Kansas City Current Remind Everyone Who They Are
25 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Oh, did you forget that the Current can gut your favorite team like a fish? After a few games of sputtering defensive performance, KC's new back line ...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 20 -- The Orlando-KC Staredown, and Portland's Continued Implosion
18 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We've got two games to cover this week! One was the matchup of the weekend on paper, but fizzled out to a 0-0 draw between the Pride and Current. The ...
ASA Show - The End of Carlos Bocanegra, The Beginning of ASAtlanta
11 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Ben, Harrison, and Kieran talk about the Boca era in Atlanta and how they would go about rebuilding the team who invented soccer. No trivia, but we he...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 19 -- Au Revoir Alex Morgan, Bonjour Bay FC!
11 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Alex Morgan has retired. As yet another titan of the sport walks into the sunset, the guys reflect on what Morgan's career truly meant beyond the goal...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 18 -- A Walk through Gotham with Jenna Tonelli!
03 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Orlando Pride continued their unbeaten streak on Sunday, taking down Gotham FC 2-0 after a monsoon nearly flooded Inter&Co Stadium. Gotham was...
ASA Show - A Draftless MLS and Does Leagues Cup = MLS Cup?
28 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Harrison gets fired up about the MLSPA, Ben thinks Columbus is the best MLS team of all time, and Kieran asks some trivia. Hosted on Acast. See acast...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 17 -- Your Spirit Has a Powerful Current Running from Washington to Kansas City
27 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Jonatan Giráldez has officially entered the NWSL chat. The Washington Spirit took down the Kansas City Current 4-1, and for a brief second, one had t...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Emergency Pod -- The NWSL's Historic New Labor Agreement
22 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The NWSL Players Association has just signed a new collective bargaining agreement, which may be one of the most historically significant labor deals ...
The Big Midseason NWSL Transfer Round-Up!
20 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The NWSL is back, baby!!! After six agonizing weeks away, the stretch run kicks off on Friday. A massive amount of transfer activity has gone down in ...
ASA Show: Secondary Transfer Window Whip Around
14 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Harrison, Ben, and Kieran drop off a transfer they love, a transfer they hate, and a transfer they really wish happened. And, trivia. Hosted on Acast....
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Olympics Recap -- The USWNT Paved the Parisian Streets with Gold
12 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
369 days after the USWNT crashed out of the World Cup Round of 16, they put those demons to bed, winning the gold medal at the 2024 Summer Olympics. T...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Olympics Recap -- The USWNT are Exhausted, but are On to the Gold Medal Game
07 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The players were dead on their feet. Lindsey Horan could barely ping a pass toward the German goal. But Naomi Girma led the defense to another sterlin...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Olympics Recap -- The USWNT Struggles but Moves On to the Semifinals
04 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
It was brutal, but perhaps it was necessary. The USWNT scraped past Japan in the Olympics quarterfinals thanks to an extra-time wonder strike from Tri...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Olympics Recap--The USWNT Win Group B, Face Japan in the Quarterfinals
01 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The USWNT beat Australia 2-1 in the final round of the Olympics group stage, topping the group and heading to the quarterfinals to play Japan on Satur...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Olympics Recap -- The USWNT Fly Through Germany in the Balmy Marseille Air
29 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Bang! The USWNT rained goals on Germany in a 4-1 victory, their biggest result against a FIFA top-10 side in six years. A Sophia Smith brace, a Mallor...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Olympics Recap: The USWNT Opens its Account With a Dazzling Win over Zambia
26 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
There were a couple of emphatic 3-0 wins in Group B as the Olympics tournament kicked off on Thursday. The USWNT contained Barbra Banda and put Zambia...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: The Big USWNT Olympics Preview! Plus Zambia, Germany, & Australia
22 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Here we go again! One year to the week that xOG launched, we find ourselves on the precipice of yet another major international tournament. The USWNT ...
ASA Show - Jesse Marsch, Gregg Berhalter, and International Analytics
18 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The resident Canadian drops in to discuss the comparisons between Jesse Marsch and triple G, while Ben and Harrison have an astute conversation about ...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: The USWNT Preps for the Olympics by Beating Mexico. Plus, A BIG ANNOUNCEMENT!
15 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The USWNT offered a lot in their 1-0 victory over Mexico on a hot and muggy day in New Jersey. Was their lack of finishing something to be concerned o...
Expected Own Goals: NWSL Week 16: Kansas City Current vs. Orlando Pride Was the Game of the Season
09 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The two best teams in the NWSL had to wait until the final matchweek before the Olympics break to square off, and dear lord was it worth the wai...
Expected Own Goals: NWSL Midseason Check-In, Pt. 2: Firings, Awards and time to Buckle Up, San Diego?!
02 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Eric and Evan debate another notable NWSL head coach sacking, hand out some Midseason Awards and go deep on Chicago's 3-0 "rout" of San Diego... was i...
ASA Show - Peter Vermes and the Hallmarks of Winning Organizations
27 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The boys get existential about what drives winning and how you build your organization when you have a generational coach. And, trivia. Hosted on Acas...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Midseason Check-In, Pt. I: The State of the League
25 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We're now (just over) halfway through the 2024 NWSL regular season, and trends are emerging! Eric and Evan uncover a host of interesting nuggets about...
ASA Show - Anonymous MLS Analytics Survey and the State of Analytics in MLS
19 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
ASA recently dropped the anonymous MLS analytics survey, as well as the Analytics Tier List for MLS and the guys get into who is where and how that li...
NWSL Week 12: The Bats Take Flight as Gotham FC Start Dominating
18 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Gotham FC's 2-0 victory on the road against Racing Louisville was about as ugly as 2-0 victories get, but dig under the hood and you see that the pres...
NWSL Week 11: Rappelling Down the Seattle Reign Cavern, with Sylvs of Shea Butter FC!
11 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Seattle Reign got smoked by the Kansas City Current over the weekend. That such a result would be par for the course shows what kind of season Lau...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: USWNT Recap -- The Emma Hayes Era Kicks Off With Goals Goals Goals!
06 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The day has come: Emma Hayes is now the head coach of the U.S. Women's National Team. The side demolished South Korea for a combined scoreline of 7-0....
NWSL Week 10: Destiny's Children? (H-Town Screwed Mix)
28 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Week 10! Two teams. Two massive victories. Two bright futures ahead? Eric and Evan ponder the meaning of Houston's staggering 3-0 home win over North ...
ASA Show - In Tribute of Om Arvind
22 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Kieran remembers Om Arvind, whose fundraiser you can donate to here: https://gofund.me/78b2bf97 . The boys join to discuss US Open Cup and MLS’ plac...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 9 -- The Utah Royals Stare into the Void
21 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Another week, another brutal Utah Royals loss. Though the scoreline was a mere 1-0 defeat on the road to the North Carolina Courage, the expansion sid...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL VIBE CHECK, PT. II -- DOUBLE THE OWN GOALS, DOUBLE THE FUN!?!?
17 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
More transparency! More accountability! More Own Goals! Kieran guest stars as the Grim Reaper in Evan and Eric's Own Goal Bogus Journey!Art by Eli Elb...
ASA Show - Messi the Magical Assister
17 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Harrison, Ben, and Kieran talk Inter Miami and the Lazarus pit driven powers of Messi and friends. Messi, good or not? Important questions. And, trivi...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Vibe Check, Pt. I -- xOG's Biggest Own Goals of the Season!
14 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We here at Expected Own Goals are about transparency and accountability. That's why, at the point in the season when xG stabilizes and becomes sticky,...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: What We Talk About When We Talk About The Red Stars, with Gal Pal Sports!
07 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We've been putting it off all season, but after a tough loss to the Washington Spirit and an emphatic win against Bay FC, we can put it off no longer:...
ASA Show - Stuck in El Trafico
02 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Ben, Harrison, and Kieran get in the weeds about Dejan Joveljic’s career progression and how LAFC are always good even when they aren’t that good....
EXPECTED OWN GOALS--NWSL Week 6--Spirit: Pride of the Cimarron
30 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Is Orlando the best team in the NWSL right now? They just might be. An emphatic 3-2 victory over the Washington Spirit on the road cemented what could...
NWSL Week 5: Angel Cities with Filthy Soles, NC Courage Cursed by the Soccer Gods
23 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The NWSL spring trade deadline has come and gone, and somehow, both the Houston Dash and Angel City made some significant moves. Eric and Evan brought...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 4: Gotham Gets Weird, and the Kansas City Current Put the "Fly" in "Chawinga"
16 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We last checked in on the Kansas City Current in Week 1. What a difference a month makes! They're sitting atop the table on 10 points, have a potentia...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: USWNT Recap: Does SheBelieve?
11 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The USWNT is SheBelieves Cup champion once again. Woo...hoo? The Twila Kilgore era comes to a close on a second penalty shootout win over Canada in a ...
ASA Show - Colorado Rapids and do soccer analytics practitioners grow on trees?
11 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Ben went to the Rapids game and hits us with some in person reporting, and the guys answer some listener questions including: how do we make more socc...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Late-Game Deciders: A Breakdown of San Diego-Seattle, Portland-Louisville, and Bay-Houston!
02 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
No fewer than three NWSL games were decided in the final moments of stoppage time last weekend, but each were decided in different ways. San Diego sur...
ASA Show - Small Sample Size Suppositions 2024
28 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Harrison returns from his Kraken based absence and the crew talk about some early season things that may or may not continue as the sample size fairy ...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 2: The Spirit in the Bay is Strong!
26 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
A jam-packed, wackadoo weekend unfolded in the NWSL, with golazos and refereeing madness and everything in between. Eric, Evan and Arianna drill down ...
Expected Own Goals: The NWSL is BACK, BABY! Breaking Down the Loony Nine-Goal Chaos Show at Kansas City
19 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The greatest league in the world has returned, and boy was it a doozy! From first-minute penalties in Seattle, to the Naeher-aissance denying Utah the...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS - NWSL Preview Week Concludes with the San Diego Wave + Gotham FC
15 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We did it. NWSL Season Preview Week concludes with last year’s champions and Shield winners, who square off tonight in the NWSL Challenge Cup....
EXPECTED OWN GOALS - NWSL Preview Week: Portland Thorns + North Carolina Courage, with Arianna Cascone
14 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The day has arrived! Arianna “Doc” Cascone makes her xOG début as we head into the homestretch of NWSL Season Preview Week. First up, Eric and Ev...
ASA Show - Go Kraken and Small Sample Size Suggestions
14 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Harrison goes to watch the Kraken, so Kieran and Ben commiserate as wooden spoon buddies. An update on the g+ draft and a deep dive on an MLS legend's...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS - NWSL Preview Week: Angel City + Seattle Reign, with Susie Rantz
13 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Another two-episode day here at xOG for NWSL Season Preview Week. We’re heading out to the the best coast to talk about two playoff teams at a cross...
EXPECTED OWN GOALS - NWSL Preview Week: Orlando Pride + Washington Spirit, with André Carlisle
13 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
**RECORDED BEFORE SIMONE CHARLEY’S AND RAFAELLE’S INJURY ANNOUNCEMENTS**In part two of today’s entries in xOG’s NWSL Season Preview Week...
Expected Own Goals - NWSL Preview Week: Racing Louisville + Houston Dash, with Theo Lloyd-Hughes
12 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our second episode today heads down south for the next edition of NWSL Season Preview Week. Louisville has a clear recruitment strategy—buy low on y...
Expected Own Goals - NWSL Preview Week: Chicago Red Stars + Kansas City Current
12 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
It’s a two-episode day on xOG as we roll along with NWSL Season Preview Week and continue to enjoy our new partnership with American Soccer An...
Expected Own Goals - BAY-UTAH
11 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
This is a really exciting day. In addition to launching NWSL Season Preview Week--an entire week of content previewing all 14 teams--we are thrilled t...