SELECTION SURPRISES: Lakai, Blackadder & The Loose Forward Debate
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What challenges are faced in selecting the All Blacks loose forwards?
Now one of the hardest places to pick for the All Blacks squad that gets announced next week for Dave Rennie and his team is likely to be the loose forwards because there are a tremendous amount of high quality loose forwards putting up big numbers this year. So what we've done is we've had a really good look at the stats that are coming through for all of the contenders and that's the attack stats, we're talking about per 80 minutes. the carries, the meters, the dominance, the defenders beaten, the clean breaks, the defense stats, like your tackles, your dominant tackles, your offloads allowed, then your breakdown stats, your turnovers ones, your ruck arrivals, your ruck wins, all of these things, and we've chucked them into the old supercomputer, and we've looked to figure out exactly who should be in this team.
Now, Jepa, let's start with how many loose forwards would you take in a 34-man squad?
Well Neymar 34 a few weeks ago, don't judge me, I am obsessed with this beautiful game, and I had five purely because I couldn't whittle the locks down while Scott Barrett was available, but since Scott Barrett's sort of not available I think they'll go with four locks, because Tupou Ve'e will have to do the bulk of the work there, so I think there's going to be six. Six loose forwards picked. And what we've done here, we've weighted our little selection index with five different, I suppose, criteria. And the first, which has the heaviest weighting, and we tried to do it off Dave Rennie's comments around how he's going to select this team. So 35% of the weighting goes to Super Agni Impact. So where do they rank in terms of, I suppose, per minute engagement?
almost like a hard-working index from Super Rugby stats. We've then got 25% of how many repeat efforts did they have within Super Rugby. So from there, you've got 60% of this is weighted to that back-and-game stat that Dave Rennie likes, and he said he's going to pick on form. So that's 60% of the weighting. But I think then you have to... put 20 of the weighting to like a point of difference so like you can't have all the same player you need players that have the ability to do different things so they're a perfect loose forward mix and the way we've sort of done that is we try to utilize the stats where they wait favorably to work out what their point of difference is and how it fits into a mix of six
What statistics are used to evaluate loose forward contenders?
Then we've got 10% going towards super rugby experience because test match footy is going to be a lift up. So you've got to have a few runs under your belt. And then 10% is roll back. No, sorry, not super rugby experience. 10% towards test match experience. So having the ability, I think you need to acknowledge that going into that test arena, you've got to have... You've got to have guys that have been there and done it, first and foremost, but there may be space for someone who hasn't entered that but has Super Rugby experience, finals experience, coming out of the last two weeks of Super Rugby and who's performed, and then just that role balance within the squad. And by role balance, what's the difference between your point and difference in your role balance is understanding how Dave Rennie and his coaching team want to defend and attack and how they fit.
in terms of their role. And there's that 100%. And then, yeah, we've cracked some. We were full nerd mode. You and I in particular this morning. Bryn was still sleeping, but these two geeks were just absolutely frothing.
It's worth saying, obviously, that Adi Xavier doesn't feature within the Super Rugby, but is an automatic selection. So what we're looking at is the five people who aren't Adi Xavier who are going to make this six.
The Optus stats we put in, though, were for Super Rugby last year. I know you're the Super Rugby Player of the Year, and it might be a bit unfair, but that's the only way. We couldn't use the Japanese league stats. I think it was the best way to go light for light.
Right. And then the other thing is that we've heard that Leicester firing Anuku is not going to be a loose forward.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What challenges are faced in selecting the All Blacks loose forwards?
0:00–2:34
2
What statistics are used to evaluate loose forward contenders?
2:34–5:05
3
How are the weights assigned in the selection criteria for loose forwards?
5:05–7:56
4
Who are the top contenders for the All Blacks loose forward positions?
7:56–14:52
5
What role does experience play in the selection of loose forwards?
14:52–21:48
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from Aotearoa Rugby Pod
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