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Chapter 1: What challenges are faced in selecting the All Blacks loose forwards?
Now one of the hardest places to pick for the All Blacks squad that gets announced next week for Dave Rennie and his team is likely to be the loose forwards because there are a tremendous amount of high quality loose forwards putting up big numbers this year.
So what we've done is we've had a really good look at the stats that are coming through for all of the contenders and that's the attack stats, we're talking about per 80 minutes.
the carries, the meters, the dominance, the defenders beaten, the clean breaks, the defense stats, like your tackles, your dominant tackles, your offloads allowed, then your breakdown stats, your turnovers ones, your ruck arrivals, your ruck wins, all of these things, and we've chucked them into the old supercomputer, and we've looked to figure out exactly who should be in this team.
Now, Jepa, let's start with how many loose forwards would you take in a 34-man squad?
Well Neymar 34 a few weeks ago, don't judge me, I am obsessed with this beautiful game, and I had five purely because I couldn't whittle the locks down while Scott Barrett was available, but since Scott Barrett's sort of not available I think they'll go with four locks, because Tupou Ve'e will have to do the bulk of the work there, so I think there's going to be six. Six loose forwards picked.
And what we've done here, we've weighted our little selection index with five different, I suppose, criteria. And the first, which has the heaviest weighting, and we tried to do it off Dave Rennie's comments around how he's going to select this team. So 35% of the weighting goes to Super Agni Impact. So where do they rank in terms of, I suppose, per minute engagement?
almost like a hard-working index from Super Rugby stats. We've then got 25% of how many repeat efforts did they have within Super Rugby. So from there, you've got 60% of this is weighted to that back-and-game stat that Dave Rennie likes, and he said he's going to pick on form. So that's 60% of the weighting. But I think then you have to...
put 20 of the weighting to like a point of difference so like you can't have all the same player you need players that have the ability to do different things so they're a perfect loose forward mix and the way we've sort of done that is we try to utilize the stats where they wait favorably to work out what their point of difference is and how it fits into a mix of six
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Chapter 2: What statistics are used to evaluate loose forward contenders?
Then we've got 10% going towards super rugby experience because test match footy is going to be a lift up. So you've got to have a few runs under your belt. And then 10% is roll back. No, sorry, not super rugby experience. 10% towards test match experience. So having the ability, I think you need to acknowledge that going into that test arena, you've got to have...
You've got to have guys that have been there and done it, first and foremost, but there may be space for someone who hasn't entered that but has Super Rugby experience, finals experience, coming out of the last two weeks of Super Rugby and who's performed, and then just that role balance within the squad.
And by role balance, what's the difference between your point and difference in your role balance is understanding how Dave Rennie and his coaching team want to defend and attack and how they fit. in terms of their role. And there's that 100%. And then, yeah, we've cracked some. We were full nerd mode. You and I in particular this morning.
Bryn was still sleeping, but these two geeks were just absolutely frothing.
It's worth saying, obviously, that Adi Xavier doesn't feature within the Super Rugby, but is an automatic selection. So what we're looking at is the five people who aren't Adi Xavier who are going to make this six.
The Optus stats we put in, though, were for Super Rugby last year. I know you're the Super Rugby Player of the Year, and it might be a bit unfair, but that's the only way. We couldn't use the Japanese league stats. I think it was the best way to go light for light.
Right. And then the other thing is that we've heard that Leicester firing Anuku is not going to be a loose forward. He might be a hybrid loose forward, but he's not going to be a loose forward within Dave Rennie's team. So he's kind of been eliminated from this conversation due to that.
Yeah. And I tried to include him, but it got too confusing as to where he was when he did the stuff. He covered so many positions. So to get specific to a loose forward, it was very, very challenging to get a fair reflection. But he's definitely a hybrid player. but I don't think he'd ever fill a loose forward role in a squad. What we've got is Adi Sarvir at one, 94 out of 100.
You've got Wallace Satiti, who's there, you've seen the impact he's made for the Chiefs, even though he's been injured most of the year, he's sitting at 90. But then Peter Lackie at 88, just shows you the out and out,
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Chapter 3: How are the weights assigned in the selection criteria for loose forwards?
Your Ardy, your Wallace, depending on his health, and then Pete Lakai. And then we've got a couple of Smokies. in four and five and I think it shows and it's really changed my thinking but Ethan Blackadder comes in at four at 86 out of 100 and his biggest rating is his repeat efforts. He's 92 out of 100, which is the highest out of anyone.
So back-to-back efforts, back in game, his super rugby impact is high. It's not as high as Lakai, but it's still high enough. And that's probably more to do with he hasn't been able to play. So does he come into the selection fold? I think we should talk about it, Brenna.
He's someone that people have sort of probably forgot about and cast aside because his body hasn't been able to sort of allow him to stay available and take his opportunities in the black jersey. But statistically, he still rates extremely high. But most importantly, the highest and the one stat Dave Rennie is obsessed with is back-to-back efforts.
a trait that Ethan definitely has. So look, you know, what I was seeing in those stats, like 92 is something that I'm not surprised hearing that because the work rate that he does on both sides of the ball is a big trait of his. So Ethan's probably just gone under the radar. I think the biggest thing with Ethan, we have touched on previously with him, it's his body.
Is he able to get through a full calendar when it comes to the All Blacks? Now, I think we have touched on you, I think Artie, Wallace and Peter.
pretty well i'll probably say pretty good bet that those could be the three guys depending on wallace satisi's injury that you'd think that'll be the six seven eight but when you're looking at their number 20 row and the utility with the fords and ethan blackcatter has to be in the mold based on those metrics especially the work rate that's something that dave has been massive on when it comes to the biggest stats
The other thing with Ethan Blackadder is, and you can understand why his body fails on him, because his dominant tackles and his dominant carry stats are off the charts. And if you're going to South Africa and you're going to be physical, he is the guy above all else in Super Rugby in New Zealand who brings that.
But it's also whack. And then it's these repeat efforts and it's whack again. And then it's whack again. It's like he is... And the Crusaders run came with him coming back. And I think the fixation with Leicester really took, I suppose, the focus off him and the under-appreciation of what he achieved.
Like, when we started this this morning, I expected him to be in sort of the top 10, but I did not expect him to be that high that he's pushing for a top three spot.
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Chapter 4: Who are the top contenders for the All Blacks loose forward positions?
Now we've interviewed him, we've talked about him a lot, but it's pretty clear based on the stats that he is very much in the running to be one of the six loose forwards if that's how many they pick.
If I go between the two of them, it's like Duplicy, Karifi and Anton Cegna. Those are the two guys that I am rating. And looking at these stacks, you know, they're six and seven. They're very, very similar in all the kind of areas. Like you're looking around, yeah, there's only maybe one or two points that are between them.
But I think the Opta, the 35% was at Anton Cegna, was at 91% and Duplicy, Karifi was at 83%. So, like, very, very small margins with those two. Like, I think both of them are somewhat similar. I think if you do look at the Jackal turnovers, I think Cegna is leading the comp. So he's now Jackal, which is a very good trait to have.
I think he's had more carries and clean breaks, but he's played a lot more minutes than Dupree C. Creafy over the year. And his improvements over the game line, I think, and towards Cegna this year, like, I think Dupree C. Creafy, very good in and around getting over the advantage line, and he's shown that in a few games.
a few campaigns but i think anton's signature in that area has been a massive improvement in his game when it comes to attacking side of the ball yeah anton segner if it wasn't for test match experience would be second
That's the area that brings it down. And remember, Test Match Experience is only a small portion of this. He's 91 out of 100 on form. The only person ahead is Peter Lakai in 93. And then his repeat efforts, he's 84. And the only person ahead of him is Blackadder, Adi Salvia and Peter Lakai. Oh, and Dupesie Karifi. So... He's ready. You have to think he's ready.
And when he came in here to be interviewed, man, you don't understand how big he is. It's sort of like when you meet Geordie Barrett. You sort of like see them on TV and then you're like, also when I met Geordie Barrett, I was warming up opposite him and I was like, geez, that's a big kid. I was like, that is a big unit. Go low on him, James.
Someone that I was quite surprised in these stats was Christian Leo Willey at five. Like if you look at 89, there's only, like you said, there's Peter Larkin at 93 and Artie Sevilla that's only higher than him and Anton Cegna. So in that top six role. But I think, you know, if I do look at Christian Leo Willey, he's been an out and out eight. You know what I mean?
So he hasn't covered six or seven. I think a lot of these other players are able to cover multiple positions. So is that something that's going to happen in his selection? But, you know, if you're looking at the stats, I'm very surprised. Not surprised, sorry. It was just a... No, I was surprised, actually. Yeah, seeing him at fifth, considering the loosies that have been here this year.
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Chapter 5: What role does experience play in the selection of loose forwards?
I named my 34 a few weeks ago and I only had the five loosies having Tupou Vale covering six. So I'm still comfortable with the five that I chose. So I'd be going Ardy, Wallace if fit, Peter Lakai, Duplessy, Karifi and Luke Jacobson. And then my six, I had Blackadder, Cegna, Parker, and Leo Willey bracketed, and someone else there, but I can't remember who it was, but it's Cegna.
And it looks like Bryn and I are going the classic Crusader Blues, but if you look at the two areas of what Dave Rennie's spoken about, pick on form and repeated effort, Cegna is out and out, second best behind Peter Lacoie.
I've kind of started mine with the loose forward trio slash bench. Xavier, Lakai and Satiti starting based on what we've seen, I suppose, from Lakai and Satiti and also what we know of Xavier. Then on the bench, that's the hard one is who do you put in there? And based off...
the impact that we've seen from blackadder the way that he throws himself into it um i put blackadder on my bench and you know there's a really good chance that you'd also find nuku there to to cover as well so then who do you add to those two and how do you get cover
See, look at that, mate, the old index. Look at it. It says your ideal starting trio. Off the back of the index is Satiti at 6, Savi at 7, Lakai at 8, and Blackadder and Jersey 20.
But then who do you put with them? Do you have cover for 6, 7, 8 who need to step in at the last minute across both positions? So for me, I was like, well, Cegna needs to be there because he's also a great line-out option. And I wonder, you know, when I look at all of them, You know, there probably aren't as many great line out forwards.
He'd be the best of the line out forwards, especially at the front of the line out for the Blues this year.
You're going to drop my boy, aren't you? You're going to drop Du Plessis. I don't know. I am.
Yeah, he's like, yeah, yeah, I am. I feel like what you could do is you can have Du Plessis as one of the non-34 and bring him in when you need him as cover straight in. But Cigna has been playing great at 7-2.
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