Apple News Today
People are noticing “recession signs” everywhere. What does the data say?
Thu, 08 May 2025
Fed Chair Jerome Powell held interest rates steady on Wednesday, and said the economic path ahead is unclear. The Washington Post reports on how economists are trying to sort through the warning signs they’re seeing. The Wall Street Journal’s Drew Hinshaw joins to discuss a complicated problem the next pope will inherit: how to handle the Vatican’s messy finances. Yesterday Utah became the first state to ban fluoride in public drinking water. The Utah News Dispatch has more, while the Tallahassee Democrat details a similar ban set to take effect in Florida. Vox breaks down the science about fluoride’s benefits and risks. Plus, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced a new autism database, why the Trump administration is spying on Greenland, a unique use of AI in the courtroom, and some cardinals are in fact watching the movie ‘Conclave.’ Today’s episode was hosted by Shumita Basu.
Chapter 1: What are the recession indicators currently noticed?
Good morning. It's Thursday, May 8th. I'm Shamita Basu. This is Apple News Today. On today's show, the Vatican's messy financial picture, why more states are considering taking fluoride out of the public drinking water, and an AI-generated video allows a dead man to confront his killer. But first, in the past few weeks, there's been a lot of talk of recession indicators.
Some of it's been in the form of snarky memes online in response to the seesaw tariff policy from the Trump administration. Some of it is trying to translate the general sense of economic anxiety and figure out whether it's a temporary blip or here to stay. Economists are trying to sort out what's anecdotal, vibes-based, if you will, from what's showing up in the data.
Take McDonald's, which recently saw a drop in spending in U.S. stores, as acknowledged by their chief financial officer on a recent earnings call.
People are choosing either to skip breakfast or they're choosing to eat at home for breakfast. And I think that's more to explain what's going on in the U.S. versus any kind of
Chapter 2: How are businesses responding to economic uncertainty?
And The Washington Post reports that a number of major airlines have withdrawn their financial forecasts for the year, uncertain about how things are going to shape up. Companies like Procter & Gamble, responsible for so many of our household brands, are raising some prices. Mattel, the makers of Barbie, have also said their prices will go up due to the administration's tariffs on China.
And for smaller businesses, the effects of the tariffs will be harder to mitigate. CNN spoke to Stephen Borelli, the CEO of a California-based clothing store, Cuts, about his concerns.
When the 145% tariff hit, it caused a lot of stress on our business where we had to raise prices and it caused demand to go down a little bit. And I just want to reiterate, I am a Trump supporter and I believe he's going to figure out how to help us out. But I just want to say that, you know, cuts represents the small businesses and the American dream. And the 145% tariff really threatens that.
Meanwhile, if you zoom out and look at the larger economic picture, many of the key economic markers have largely remained steady. Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell kept interest rates unchanged, but said the path ahead was not clear.
Chapter 3: What is Jerome Powell's outlook on the economy?
My gut tells me that uncertainty about the path of the economy is extremely elevated and that the downside risks have increased. The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen. But they haven't materialized yet. They're really not in the data yet.
In other words, what he's saying is there's uncertainty, sure, but those recession indicators are not jumping out to him right now. Overall, consumer spending hasn't fallen yet. The labor market has remained strong. But some economists believe it will only be a matter of time before the tariff policy back and forth does, in fact, start to show up in data.
The New York Times reports that for some economists, the uncertainty feels a bit like hunting for clues during the pandemic. Back then, things like a drop in restaurant reservations and screenings at TSA checkpoints were signals of potential economic damage to come.
But one challenge the Fed now faces, as Powell said, is trying to decide whether to focus more on the risk of rising unemployment or inflation going up. If consumer confidence is low, then demand may fall. Just ask the McGriddle. And it is still possible that the current tariff outlook could change.
In fact, this weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant is scheduled to meet with Chinese officials to discuss trade. Though Trump said yesterday he does not plan to change the tariffs in advance of the meeting to secure a deal. Let's turn now to a huge problem the new pope will inherit, the Vatican's extremely messy finances.
The combination of deficit spending and financial mismanagement has driven the Vatican into unsustainable debt. When Pope Francis was elected in 2013, he was given a mandate to fix this problem, but it only got worse. The Vatican's deficit tripled during his tenure, though to be clear, he did try to push for reforms.
He hires auditors, essentially. One of them had been an executive at the accountant firm Deloitte, and these auditors are sort of shocked what they find.
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Chapter 4: What financial challenges does the Vatican face?
Drew Henshaw with The Wall Street Journal spoke to us from Rome.
There's nuns who are doing calculations and keeping budget ledgers with pencil and paper. There are clergy who are moving money from their Vatican accounts to bank accounts under a cardinal's name to hide money from the auditors.
To understand the Vatican's finances, Hinshaw and other journal reporters met with officials from the Vatican's bank, pension fund, and regulatory institutions. They also spoke to cardinals attending this week's conclave. A Vatican spokesman didn't respond to a request for comment.
Several interviews had to be held in secret, with their sources citing an atmosphere of suspicion and blame over the Vatican's deteriorating financial situation. The journal learned members of the clergy resisted the rules Francis tried to impose, things like obtaining multiple sign-offs for expenses.
Some tried to hide funds, citing security concerns for missionaries in countries where proselytizing is a crime. Hinshaw says trying to balance a budget for a papal state that's existed for more than a millennium was not a priority for many of them.
You have clergy who, in their minds, they're doing God's work on earth. And why an outside auditor or an accountant should tell them how to do those things? You're going to hit resistance.
The struggle between Francis and the Vatican's bureaucracy continued to escalate. Ultimately, he decided to shift his focus to other priorities. But he kept trying to find solutions. up until pneumonia put him in the hospital for weeks this February. Three days before he was hospitalized, Francis signed a papal directive to boost donations from the Catholic faithful, hoping that that would help.
Who will inherit the financial puzzle is still in question. Black smoke rose above the Vatican yesterday, signaling a new pope had not yet been chosen. Now to Utah, where the first domestic ban on fluoride in public drinking water went into effect yesterday. Florida will soon follow.
On Tuesday, Florida's Republican Governor Ron DeSantis signed a bill into law that will prevent local municipalities from adding fluoride to their water starting July 1st.
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Chapter 5: Why is Utah banning fluoride in drinking water?
In 2011, the city council in Calgary, Canada, voted to remove fluoride from its water. But a decade later, residents voted to bring it back. Calgary City Council member Giancarlo Carra spoke with NPR last year about this decision. He says they noticed when fluoride was removed, tooth decay was on the rise.
The rate of dental caries has increased significantly more than the rate of dental caries was increasing before. I think another meta study came out also in that 10-year period that looked at all the other studies and made it pretty clear that, yeah, there probably are meaningful benefits involved.
Some people who have been outspoken opponents of adding fluoride to water, like Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., have warned that it can be dangerous and lead to adverse health effects. And there's some truth to that if too much is consumed. Bruce Lamphere, a professor of health sciences who studies neurotoxins, told Vox about research in China.
It compared villages with high amounts of naturally occurring fluoride in their water to villages without high levels of fluoride.
And what they found is comparing the high versus the low populations, they saw about a seven IQ point difference. When it's that large, it's hard to sort of just dismiss.
But what's also worth noting, we are talking about high, high levels of fluoride exposure. Here in the United States, municipalities set fluoride limits, and most follow CDC guidance, which is much lower. No more than 0.7 milligrams of fluoride per liter of water. That's around five times less than the Chinese villages from the study Lamphere cited.
To put it another way, the National Institutes of Health says it's, quote, virtually impossible to get a toxic dose from fluoride at the recommended levels. As Utah's ban takes effect, dentists who treat children and low-income patients told the Associated Press they're bracing for an increase in tooth decay among the state's most vulnerable people.
Still, other states are plowing ahead, with Ohio and South Carolina considering similar measures. Before we let you go, a few other stories we're following. In other health news, Secretary Kennedy has announced a new database that will keep track of autism patients enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid. He says it'll be used to help researchers studying the causes of the condition.
A petition criticizing the move has drawn more than 50,000 signatures, with people saying that they felt an effective registry would be invasive and against the wishes of many families. The Autism Science Foundation raised privacy red flags. The National Institutes of Health denied that it amounted to a registry, and the health department says it would comply with all privacy laws.
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