Trump didn’t take military action against Venezuela in his first term. Here’s what changed.

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This is In Conversation from Apple News. I'm Shamitza Basu. Today, how to make sense of the U.S. 's operation in Venezuela.
It's been just about a week since the world learned of the U.S. special operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Celia Flores. It came after months of mounting U.S. military pressure on the country. Trump has said that the U.S. will run Venezuela for as long as necessary, years even, though what exactly that means remains unclear.

What triggered the recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela?

Any kinds of moves like the ones the administration has made in recent days— have just immense consequences that can ricochet in countless directions. That's New Yorker staff writer Jonathan Blitzer. Just the degree of uncertainty and confusion at a time when the actual human and political consequences are as grave as they are, I think has made the situation absolutely astonishing to try to follow. Jonathan has been reporting on immigration and foreign policy for years. And the way he sees it, Venezuela sits at the nexus of so many interconnected Trump administration priorities, from stemming migration to addressing drug trafficking to amassing natural resources. I sat down with Jonathan to ask him to untangle the reasons why he says Venezuela has long been an obvious target for Trump and for the people in his orbit.
A few factors at play. To begin with, you have people like Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, who have long had designs on ousting the current regime in Venezuela for a whole host of reasons. And to be clear, the Maduro regime in Venezuela was a brutal, repressive, dictatorial regime. There was never any question about that. And it was, in very obvious ways, illegitimate. Most specifically, in July of 2024, there were national elections in Venezuela. Maduro lost, declared himself the winner, and that was that. And since 2013, for instance, there have been 8 million Venezuelans who have fled the country as it's essentially collapsed. economic failures, repression. Just the country has really been completely upended in the last decade plus.
So given that backdrop, you have someone like Rubio, who has always had this ideological position about the need to topple the Venezuelan regime as a way of eradicating the wider region of the kind of scourge of socialist dictatorships. Specifically, what is the main obsession for Rubio is the regime in Cuba. And so Venezuela, the thinking goes, is basically propping up the Cuban regime by giving them oil, essentially providing them with some sort of lifeblood to prop up a failing government in Cuba. And so the logic always was that if you could remove that piece in Venezuela... Then the Cuban regime is, you know, on borrowed time. The socialist regime in Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, is also extremely vulnerable.
And so for someone with that kind of design for the region, Venezuela has always loomed large. Then you have the element of Trump and what he represents. Trump is actually a somewhat complicated figure in all of this. In his first administration, he did a lot of saber rattling about the need for regime change in Venezuela. He talked about the idea that Maduro had to be ousted. He tried to use strong rhetoric as a way of scaring or pressuring members of the military in Venezuela to break ranks with the Maduro regime and instigate some kind of coup or transition. None of that worked. But one of the reasons why it didn't work was specifically because Trump himself was uncomfortable with the idea of committing US troops or resources to a more thoroughgoing intervention in Venezuela, which is actually, to be clear, not an unreasonable position.
It's a very complicated undertaking. And so he has kind of bounced back and forth among different positions on what the U.S. posture should be vis-a-vis Venezuela. Oil has always been, I think, enormously attractive to him in the sense that Venezuela has some of the largest oil reserves in the world. And yet, because of mismanagement, the actual infrastructure for extracting that oil has fallen into disrepair.

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