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Chapter 1: What insights does Kevin Gausman provide about the Blue Jays' current trajectory?
it's at the letters for wednesday june the 3rd 2026 arden's welling here with ben nicholson smith and our producer christian chenidi thanks so much for listening ben we are both
in Atlanta and we are both witnessing what I suppose Kevin Gosman would refer to as the two steps back portion of the four steps forward, two steps back cycle that he described to us after Tuesday night's loss to the Atlanta Braves. A one run loss in a game in which the Blue Jays had a bunch of base runners. They had four hitters with multi-hit games and just could not
Cash them against Bryce Elder and some really, really strong relief pitching from the back end of the Atlanta Braves bullpen. So how do you feel about that summation that Gosman gave us that the Blue Jays season has essentially been oscillating between four steps forward and two steps back?
Well, I definitely think it's accurate for the last little while where they have been building this momentum and they haven't been able to fully just seize it and push it forward to where it needs to be.
And that was certainly the case over the weekend where they get to 500 and it's like, wow, this is the first time in a long time, despite all these injuries, they seem to be on the brink of turning it around and even going over 500. And then the Jeff Hoffman game happens and All those runs scored, they end up losing Saturday and Sunday and Tuesday. And look, we've seen this before.
Like it's not some fatal blow for the Blue Jays to now be three games under 500 because they've been there for much of the season to this point. But it is frustrating and it's going to test their patience and it's going to test their resilience.
Yeah, I think not to be pedantic, but I think it's probably more accurate to say three steps forward, three steps back. Because if you went four forward, two back, and you just kept doing that over the course of the season, I think you'd actually have a really, really successful season, right? I think you'd probably win like over 100 games.
so that's like if that's what they're doing keep doing it because that's going to work out over time but yeah that's not what they're doing it's probably more so like 3.1 forward 2.9 back but look this is the I think the important thing to keep in mind here this team is just forever going to be compared to the 2025 team and we're just always going to because it's so similar and 2025 just happened and a lot of the
protagonists remain unchanged and we're constantly going to be comparing these players to what they did last year and the team to how it performed last year and all season long we've been saying hey blue jays got out to a slow start yes last year you know they didn't really get going until they were about 60 games in and we've seen them like this before and then we've seen them put it together and go on a run uh but this is the point right now when the blue jays really took off last year i mean they got up to five games above 500 about a week into june
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Chapter 2: How will Alejandro Kirk's return impact the Blue Jays' catcher situation?
Right. Last year, June, 16-10. July, 18-8. August, 15-12. September, 15-10. And then we know what happened in October. So clearly, the best baseball of the season happened late last year. And for all the comparisons that I think are fair and inevitable when you talk about a team that was as memorable as the 2025 Jays, what was best about that team was the late part of the season.
So we'll see how close the Blue Jays can get this year to... just replicating some of that. And they don't have to win the division. Of course, best case is you win the division, you get a buy, you avoid that chaos of the wildcard series, which in the Blue Jays history, they have not won a wildcard series. So certainly not a lot of great memories there, but you can do it.
Chapter 3: What recent pitching developments should we be aware of?
And if you had Cease and Gosman in a wildcard series, like that would be a totally viable path through to the DS and beyond. So yeah, Yeah, the point is they got to start winning and they have three starters in rotation and a lot of their key hitters aren't hitting. So it's not it's not really the ideal circumstance. And yet it's still interesting. It's still compelling.
They still have a shot at it. So we're going to see if they can do it.
to me like the most appropriate comparison to 2025 if we're going to do this all year is just the comparisons of the seasons that Vlad and Springer have had and to like a lesser extent Kirk but like Kirk's it's kind of obvious he just hasn't been available so like of course he hasn't produced like he did last year it's been injury but Vlad and Springer have been generally available Springer took a little bit of time off when he fractured his toe but he's
um he's he's mostly been in the lineup and i mean right now he's been a negative war player he's a negative 0.3 f war player uh last year he was a five win player so that's just a massive difference in terms of like producing um and contributing to wins and losses and then vladimir guerrero jr who as of today is on pace for eight home runs
on the season he he has won in his last 156 plate appearances uh he's tracking for around a three win season which uh again would be a significant drop off from what he did last year like those are just your biggest movers like we can get into talking about backup catchers and the bench and platoons and matchups and all that and the bullpen deployment and all that but like
Just the biggest leverage points really have been the drop off in performance and production from Vlad and Springer, who are meant to be your carriers in your offense. And if that doesn't change, I just don't think the season is going to be successful in the end.
Well, they're going to need so many other pieces to come through the way things are going and so many other players to step up.
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Chapter 4: How are the Blue Jays coping with their current roster challenges?
And some of that will connect to health. We've already seen some of that with Pinyongo or Valenzuela. clearly emerging on the offensive side, Spencer Miles emerging on the pitching side, among others. But you look at George Springer, a 9.59 OPS a year ago, where the baseball savant page was all red. This year, it's a 6.32 OPS.
The baseball savant page has a lot of blue, meaning he hasn't been unlucky. He just hasn't been... making great contact. And unfortunately, that's just a huge drop off. He was amazing last year. And this year, he's still searching for it. Here we are in June, he's still searching for it. So yeah, it's, it's tough. And I think you look at the overall offense.
And as a group, this is a team right now that's 24th in Major League Baseball in WRC plus. So that is seventh, seventh from the bottom in Major League Baseball when it Yeah, it's tough to win a lot of games. This also contributes to how much pressure has been on the pitching staff. Not only do they just have the three starters right now, but they also are playing a lot of close games.
So that puts their relievers in a lot of leverage. And, you know, as we say this, it is kind of remarkable. Like, I don't want to be too down on it because, hey, there's three games under 500, which they can overcome within a week, a good week. And they're still very, very close to playoff position here as we're into June.
Yeah, the rest of the American League has a lot to do with that, obviously. And that's really just the silverst of linings for the Blue Jays this year is that they are close to a playoff position where like the record that they have now on the production that they've had this year would not have them close to a playoff position at this point last season.
So, but ultimately, other teams in the AL are going to perform better as well. Even if the Blue Jays perform just a little bit better, you have to assume that some other teams in the AL are going to start turning things around as well and start pushing their way up the standings. So ultimately, like for the Blue Jays, somebody is going to win the East and it's unlikely to be the Blue Jays.
Someone's going to win the Central and someone's going to win the West. So can you be the best among the best three teams of the remaining field? So you have to be top three among the remaining 12. Can they do that?
That's really what the rest of the season is going to be about, because until the Blue Jays are at least somewhere closer to the top of the American League East, it's just really not even worth talking about the division right now.
Yeah, no, that's for sure. They are a long way away from that. We can't talk about the division. So it's wildcard push time, and that puts a lot of pressure on someone like Kevin Gosman. Like, I think that that's a really...
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Chapter 5: What comparisons are being made between the current team and the 2025 Blue Jays?
Think about how many big league debuts we've seen this year. So, Casmo, Komodo, Brandon Valenzuela, Charles McAdoo, Johendrik Pinyongo, Spencer Miles, Tanner Andrews, Hayden Yinger, Adam Mako. That's like, what, eight names? And I'm probably forgetting one or two.
That's just an incredible amount of big league debuts in the first two months of a season for a team with a $300 million payroll that's built to contend now. and that has a bunch of veteran pieces on it.
It really is. It really is. And it's a credit to the Blue Jays for finding those guys. And it's ultimately a credit to those players. But it's also a reflection of the injuries that they've had, especially on the pitching side, where they've been really just exposed and overexposed and
You know, we've always known it wasn't sustainable to to keep going like this with even Spencer Miles rule five pick is one of your spots. Certainly, once you get to two and you see Austin both in there, that did not go well. He's off the roster now. clearly not sustainable to have two bullpen games in a five-day period. So they're going to have to find some answers there.
Thank goodness for them. Patrick Corbin and Spencer Miles look like two of them. But ultimately, the sooner these rehabbing pitchers can get back, the better. And you're not going to rush them. You're not going to tell Dylan Cease to rush through a hamstring or tell Max Scherzer what to do. He knows himself pretty well at 41 years old. But
if those guys can get back and Bieber's not too far behind them, then that will make a huge difference to this team.
Since we're here talking about the rookies, I do want to just make a quick comment about Kazuma Okamoto. And it's actually like, I think it's okay that he's leading the team in strikeout rate. And I think that just strikeouts are just going to be part and parcel to his approach. And I think because of
just his approach he's going to be streaky probably for his entire big league career and that's okay because um it feels like one of those hot streaks is coming or maybe we're even in the midst of it now just because he has three homers over the last week and like a i don't know a wobo over 500 uh over that span but you just you look at the on tuesday his first plate appearance against bryce elder and he's down oh two and then that's when like if if you have a high strikeout rate and a lot of
points where you're like going from 02 to 03 and walking back to the bench like that's the problem that's those are just empty calorie plate appearances but he showed in that spot like what makes Okamoto's approach different because he like went to work against Bryce Elder and he took a couple pitches and he fouled off a couple pitches and he like battled and he fought his way back to 3-2 and if in that point he had like
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Chapter 6: How does the current pitching performance affect the team's chances?
I think that the opinions of your pitching staff matter as well. And for us from the outside looking in, it's going to be really difficult to get a good read on that.
Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, ultimately it's not like you can go around and, you know, ask everybody what their opinion is either. So you almost have to, this is where it's like the day-to-day communication of just understanding, okay, do they like working with this guy? Is it working? Am I getting, you know, I don't want to say complaints because it's a professional environment.
I don't think that they're out there, you know, You're talking badly behind each other's back, but you got to get a read on it because, yeah, you're not going to send around, you know, anonymous pull on it and have the have the players. And I know you're not saying that, but, you know, you got to you got to make that call.
And you've got to as the front office and the coaching staff, you've got to make that best determination based on how you think those interactions go. Everybody in the clubhouse gets like a Google form.
Hey, how do you feel about your teammates?
For roster building by, yeah, why not? Anonymous polling. Someone should give it a shot. Maybe, yeah, maybe not this 2026 Blue Jays, but I would love to see that.
Yeah, I'll leave that to one of the rebuilding franchise. The Marlins are just like, hey, we're trying all kinds of wacky stuff this year. We're calling pitches from the dugout and doing all these things. So maybe we'll leave it to the Marlins. We're going to step away. Yeah. The more left to the Marlins, the better, really.
We're going to step away, but when we return, there's much to talk about on the pitching side with returning Cy Young winners and bullpen days aplenty and struggles in the bullpen. All that and so much more when we continue on At The Letters. It continues on at the letters are in swelling. Ben Nicholson Smith, our producer this week is Christian Chinetti. Thanks so much to him for his work.
And thanks to all of you for listening. And hey, if you by chance are going to go check out the Buffalo Bisons this week, who I believe are in Worcester. playing the Worcester Red Sox, which is the Red Sox AAA affiliate, you're going to see some serious pitching going on at the AAA level that you did not commonly see at that level.
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Chapter 7: What strategies are being discussed for managing the bullpen effectively?
He's kind of in his own category when it comes to just... understanding what it means to get back from an injury or to try to build up. Like he's, he has so much experience, more than a lot of pitching coaches, more than a lot of managers.
When it comes to doing this, not, not Pete Walker and John Schneider necessarily, but this is, this is someone who knows himself in that process really, really well. So if he says he needs time, give him time, totally agree. You can roll with Spencer miles. Conversely, if Scherzer says, I feel great. I threw 60 pitches. We're good to go.
At that point, I probably would be inclined to trust him and say, all right, you say you're good to go. You got bullets that you're ready to use in the major leagues. Let's go. And maybe that means a piggyback with Miles. Maybe that means Scherzer goes five and Miles covers the sixth, seventh, eighth, whatever it is. You keep him semi-stretched out.
But I would kind of play it off of Scherzer at that point and see what he says and see what his stuff looks like.
Yeah, look, even if it's only 70-75 pitches for Scherzer after this next rehab outing, I mean, who else with the Blue Jays right now is giving them 70-75 good pitches? I mean, competitive, keep us in the game pitches. It's been really hard for them to find that. And they've got TBD again here on Thursday, and we don't know what that's going to look like. Only that...
It sounds like the Blue Jays really want somebody who can give them legitimate length so they aren't burning through like another four or five pitching change bullpen day so they could at least have somebody who could cover four innings, maybe four and two thirds or five.
even uh we saw austin both attempt that the last time this spot came up didn't go so well he's now a free agent we're gonna have to really keep our eyes on uh the buffalo uh bison's box scores this week and see uh hey did josh fleming pitch did chad dallas pitch where are those guys at i mean the blue jays were very close to calling up chad dallas uh
over the weekend to the point that he had a locker stall like set up in the clubhouse in Baltimore with the Blue Jays, with jerseys in it, with Dallas and the number 37 on them and everything. And after I had brought that to the attention of a couple of people with the team, a few moments later, clubhouse attendant very surreptitiously walked over and removed the nameplates and folded up
The jerseys. So like this is what the Blue Jays have been cycling through this. Like this is what it's been like running these multiple bullpen days. There's a lot of uncertainty and there's a lot of moving parts, a lot of moving pieces. And you got to bring a lot of extra jerseys and extra nameplates. And you got to postpone starts in the minors and throw guys off their schedules.
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Chapter 8: What upcoming challenges do the Blue Jays face in their schedule?
What? So that's becoming... Yeah. They have an early game. What? Because we record this on Wednesday, June 3rd. So he's pitched... What are the odds? I know. We're just in lockstep with Josh Fleming here. He's actually pitching quite well. As of this moment, three scoreless, a couple of Ks. So... He will not be pitching Thursday. That is safe to say. He's not pitching anywhere Thursday.
Won't be for the Blue Jays. Won't be anywhere else. So we can we can cross that possibility off. And as for Chad Dallas, I'll just offer a thought there for anyone wondering, like, why would he be there? And then why would they shy away from that? This is a guess from the outside looking in.
No one's told me this, but my guess is that it's actually kind of valuable to have that 40-man roster spot as more of a, this is going to sound bad, but more of a churn spot where you have Austin Vothup for a couple days. He doesn't pitch well. he's gone and you DFM and then you bring someone new onto the spot. And then with Chad Dallas, you're not going to churn him off it.
Once he's on the 40 man, you want to keep him on the 40 man. So at a time that Alejandro Kirk is soon going to have to be activated and within the next 10 days or so, hopefully he is going to take a 40 man spot. And then that means someone else has to be pushed aside. So my read is they kind of want to keep that a little bit flexible if possible. Now that might not be possible.
Chad Dallas might be selected tomorrow. We'll see, but I think that that connects to their behavior around that spot.
100%, because if you put Chad Dallas on the 40-man, you're not going to then want to DFA Chad Dallas. So that basically locks him into that 40-man spot. It's similar with Charles McAdoo. You're not going to DFA Charles McAdoo. So that 40-man spot is now locked in. And like, so you do want at least one or two that you have some flexibility with. My mind turns to Tanner Andrews.
And I don't know when the last time was that he pitched. I believe he was just, he was only optioned from the Blue Jays when they did option him after his, I think he made two outings. So could he be a possibility for the Blue Jays? I don't know if he's somebody who could throw 70 pitches. Go ahead. Right.
Oh, I thought you meant as a possibility to get DFA'd. And I mean. I know. I was getting there. Yeah. Yeah. No, yes. And I mean, with all due respect, he's probably not going to be on the 40 man in six weeks time. I mean, that's just the way it is.
Yes. So yeah, I was getting there. Like if, you know, I don't, I don't think he could throw 70 pitches. So is that somebody who then kind of makes way for somebody else who can, um, you want to have that flexibility and that ability on your 40 man, um,
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