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Chapter 1: What are the Blue Jays' current standings and performance after the Phillies series?
Welcome to At The Letters for June 11th, 2026. Ben Nicholson-Smith here with you in Toronto. Arden Zwelling, fresh from the White House, joins us from Washington, D.C. Arden, how's it going? Morning, Ben. How are you? Good.
Care to let our listeners in on why you're where you are right now? I think most people are aware the UFC is having an event at the White House this week. And Sportsnet is where you get all of your UFC content in Canada. So, yeah, I'm here covering that for Sportsnet.ca.
Boom. Two sports star. But we are not going to discuss anything to do with UFC on this podcast. We are going to stick to the Toronto Blue Jays. And as we sit here on Thursday, June 11th, We are talking about a 33-36 Toronto Blue Jays team that just played the Philadelphia Phillies, lost a couple games to the Phillies.
Lots going on, lots to discuss from that series, including Simeon Woods Richardson, Patrick Corbin, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Max Scherzer. So we are going to get into a lot of that in this podcast. But Arden, big picture. You look at this team right now. Where are you at? Let's get a little check-in on your vibe with the Jays.
I think that Fangrass has them around 40% playoff odds, give or take, and that feels about right to me. I'd say four out of ten times if you just simulated the rest of the season. I think the Blue Jays would sneak into a wildcard spot.
I think that so much of, well, the next month is going to, like the next four weeks is going to help determine the trade deadline strategy, and then the next rest of the season is is going to help determine just how difficult it's going to be for the Blue Jays to get in a wildcard spot.
And so much of that's going to depend on whether other teams in the American League begin to separate themselves or not.
Yeah, and I think at this point, I expect the Blue Jays to be buying. They want to buy. If they lose six in a row, I mean, their fate might be decided for them.
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Chapter 2: How did Simeon Woods Richardson perform in his recent outing?
But I think they want to buy and certainly have a talented team that if things start to click a little better... in this American League, as you said, with playoff odds that are right around 40%, above 40% in fact, then yeah, you can make a case. I think also in observing this team and in observing the conversation around this team, I see people reaching for certainty.
People want to know, are they good? Are they not good? Are they going to be in it? Are they not? We just don't know. We don't know. Ultimately, it's been a disappointing start to the season, and they have missed opportunities, whether it was very early in the season when they had a weaker schedule, or even more recently, they've certainly missed some chances.
But it's still there for them, and if things start to click, then they definitely could get in the playoffs, and it could be a season where we're talking about
playoff rosters and how do they set up against certain teams that's on the table for them so for all of the ups and downs i just feel like we're still in this place of not knowing what this team is going to be and it's hard to embrace i think as a sports fan we want to feel like there's there's something we can grasp onto but for me i look at it i'm just like i don't know i don't know which direction this this team is going to go
That is the design and that is the structure of the league with adding that third wildcard team is to keep as many teams relevant for as long as possible, as deep as possible into the season. So that's why things are as vague as they are now and as uncertain as they are now. And I don't think that anyone who's looking for certainty with the Blue Jays is even going to have it on September 20th.
I think with a week left in the season, a lot of this is still going to be up in the air. The Blue Jays have a series in Texas the second last week of the season that could be rather consequential because the Rangers are one of those teams right there in the wildcard mixed with the Blue Jays.
I imagine they'll go into those final two weeks, even that final week, with just a few games separating the Blue Jays, Rays, Rangers. And we'll see with the White Sox whether they can continue to surprise or not. And that's just likely going to be the state of things. So I think the best thing that's happened for the Blue Jays this year has been just the middening of the American League.
And the second best thing, which is like somewhat related, is the Orioles and Red Sox not being as good as a lot of people thought that they would be. I mean, the Red Sox have just completely bottomed out right now. I mean, they're 12 games under .500. It's kind of shocking, honestly. And the Orioles are having a second straight...
season where they're just dramatically underperforming what i think would be pretty reasonable expectations of them coming in uh just considering the talent that they have offensively uh so the those two teams performing so far below expectations is really helping the blue jays just in the american league east and then also having like a tigers team underperforming and the astros not playing well that's helping them in the context of the greater american league
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of Max Scherzer's return to the rotation?
So the added velocity on the fastball is really encouraging because it's just going to be hard for him to live if he's 91, 92 with his fastball, just considering that his secondary weapons aren't devastating or anything. He's not throwing a Mason Miller slider or a Kevin Gosman splitter. So he needs at least that 94-ish velo on his fastball in order to just set those pitches up better.
And he had that. Like he averaged 93.9 in that outing. So that's huge. I mean, he hadn't pitched in a while, so maybe that had something to do with it. Maybe there's some, um, some technical things that Blue Jays has been working on with him, just postural or delivery wise. Maybe that's part of it.
I think also eliminating the splitter to righties, which he did in that outing and the slider to lefties, which he did in that outing is going to be huge for him. Um,
These are going to be limiting factors for him as a starting pitcher, because I think that when it's only two pitches to either side of the platoon, really good teams that game plan really well and have access to traject and eye pitch, etc., are going to be able to really figure him out and probably do some damage against him if one of those pitches isn't working.
But if he's going to be in a relief role or if he's only taken one trip through, etc., and hitters don't have enough time to really figure out what he has working that day and what he doesn't and just what his plan of attack is, he could be useful in a bulk role out of the bullpen. You don't want to overreact to just one outing, but...
I think just the change, because whenever somebody performs a lot better than they have in the past, it's always like, okay, what's changed? What's different? And to me, it's just the added velocity and the pitch mix deployment.
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Chapter 4: What challenges does Max Scherzer face pitching in the AL East?
Those are the two tweaks that I, or the two improvements that I saw. And now he's just got to build on them going forward. Right. Velo is a big deal.
Velo is like a tangible thing. And if your Velo is going up, that's always going to earn you extra looks in Major League Baseball. So I'll be honest, like when he took the ball from John Schneider midway through that game on Monday, I thought...
here we go he's going to give them a few innings probably going to allow a few runs be dfa'd by this time tomorrow i was i honestly believe that and then he actually pitched well enough that i think he earned himself at least one more game and i still think i mean sorry swr if you're listening to this i still think he's on dfa watch i still think he's probably one outing away from being one of those guys who gets cut from the 40 man in this ongoing churn that we're seeing and
for the Blue Jays if they need that spot. But he earned himself, in my books, at least one more look to just see if there's something to build on and get back to the form where he actually was somewhat of a useful back-end starter from 2024 to 2025.
Yeah, it wasn't a perfect outing by any means. Adoliz Garcia swung right through a hanging slider, basically right in the middle of the zone. Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh both crushed balls over 100 miles per hour that went for outs. So
I think that for Woods Richardson going forward, it's probably not, you don't want to expect that to continue, that he's just going to have these results going forward.
Like the much greater sample from earlier this season is of him not being what we saw, but for as long as he's going to be serviceable, as long as he's going to pitch like he did in that outing, Blue Jays are going to take it because this is a team that certainly could use some reliable innings out of its pitching staff.
Well, the churn that I mentioned before has really been an ongoing theme this week. And I want to get your thoughts on this a little bit as well, because we've seen Yario Rodriguez cut from the 40 man. He's back on his way to AAA, presuming he doesn't get claimed, which I appreciate. Certainly presume with that contract he's not going to get taken off waivers.
Connor Siebel, DFA, see what happens there. Adam Macko, this is actually very interesting with the Yankees coming into town for three games this weekend. Adam Macko, lefty, performing well, but they wanted the active roster spot and he has options. So in that case, I actually was a little surprised that they ended up
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Chapter 5: What adjustments are needed for Vlad Guerrero Jr. and George Springer at the top of the batting order?
There's an urgency there. there's a pressure to come up with results in the short term. At the same time, of course, we know there are 90 games left. You can't be too reckless with these things. And you don't want to overreact to a single game where Scherzer's stuff, when it comes to the velocity, when it comes to the missing bats, it was actually reasonably good. It was solid.
It was what you'd expect or hope for from Max Scherzer from a stuff standpoint.
Chapter 6: How is the Blue Jays' batting order affecting player performance?
So I don't think you are in a rush to DFA the guy and move on. But I do think it might be time to get creative. And I do think the leash is shorter than it's ever been or should be shorter than it's ever been for Scherzer.
What are the alternatives is the big question there. Because if the Blue Jays have somebody there.
better and more deserving who has better stuff and has been getting better results and is healthy and able to give you 90 pitches and five innings then sure like upgrade on your rotation but i mean the blue jays just got off of a phase where they had only three starters because they had no one else so now they actually have five with scherzer being one of them and i'm not seeing anybody who's ready to step into the rotation right now today and take a spot
And that's why I do think that Scherzer will be a big part of the Blue Jays' pitching plans next week at Fenway Park. I think that he is going to continue to get those chances and be a big part of their plans. And I think that's the way it should be because you're trying to win games. He certainly has the resume and again, enough ā it's not like he's sitting 89, touched 95.
Like there are enough positives that you want to see if you can move forward with this. So for now, he's part of those plans for me. I will say. We're recording this on Thursday morning. So we don't know how Shane Bieber's ā I'm surprised we're not checking on Josh Fleming given our recent tendencies. But today it's Shane Bieber.
We don't know how Shane Bieber's start on Thursday is going to go. The expectation is that he's going to try to build off 59 pitches that he threw in his initial AAA start. If that goes really, really well, then you could dream about bringing Shane Bieber back right away. If it doesn't go quite as well, then clearly they've been very deliberate with him. Shane Bieber's going to need more time.
In that case, you have to figure something out in the here and the now. And again, Scherzer is going to be a part of those plans in some way, shape, or form, especially with a stretch of 16 games in 16 days coming up to end the month of June, heading into early July. So you don't want to be reckless in discarding pitchers who can help you cover those innings.
you have to look at the results in front of you.
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Chapter 7: What strategies can the Blue Jays implement to improve their offense?
And if that means considering an opener, for example, against the Red Sox, this is something that a year ago they wouldn't have done. I wouldn't be stunned if within the next few weeks there's an opener. I wouldn't be stunned if, you know, two weeks from now, Shane Bieber's back, he's looking good. Is there a Corbin Scherzer piggyback? Like, there are scenarios in my mind where...
The Blue Jays could get creative depending on how things unfold, depending on performance. But I think we're getting to that time.
Yeah, for Boston, if they're going to start Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, you could throw Mason Fluarty to start there. Duran, Abreu, both lefties. And maybe, I don't know, if Yoshida is hitting fifth or something, maybe Fluarty sticks around until then.
Chapter 8: What key decisions are facing the Blue Jays as they approach the Yankees series?
And then Scherzer can start with number six and down. We've seen Chris Bassett pitch behind an opener this year with the Orioles. Exactly. So it wouldn't be unheard of. And I think the Blue Jays could, especially if the results are what they've been, could ask him to do that. I think that with Bieber, who knows how plans have evolved and how thoughts have changed.
But I can tell you right now that like going into his rehab assignment, the plan was not for him to come back after his fourth start at 75 pitches. The plan was for him to get up to like 85, 90 in the minors before he comes back. And I think he's probably only about 16, 17, 18 days into his rehab assignment right now. And the Blue Jays intended to use all 30 to really ramp him up.
Because remember, he's going through spring training. It's not like he had a spring training buildup and then was shut down and just had some volume and conditioning built up. He's going through a spring training process right now. So even if he throws... 75 pitches over
three and two thirds or four innings for the Bison's here on Thursday and say he allows two earned, but he like strikes out five walks one. Like he just, he looks like Shane Bieber. I still think that the blue Jays will want to get him one more, at least, um, rehab outing just to get up to like 85 pitches and five innings, maybe even touch close to 90 before he comes back to the majors.
Because while obviously you're right, like every win is, matters especially this season where things are so tight and competitive in the AL you you need to prioritize the long term with Shane Bieber and what's best for him physically if you rush him back and he has some sort of a setback or he's just says he's 80% to 85% and not 95%.
I just don't think that's a worthwhile trade-off in order to get what he would line up after this for Boston, I guess. Just to get him into a game, a start against the worst team in the American League East. I don't think that the urgency is there. I think you need to do what's best for Shane Bieber and have him make at least one more outing after Thursday at AAA.
I agree that's the likelihood. And hey, is there a small chance that he goes out and he just feels amazing on Thursday? Sure. And you can react if that's the case. But I think the overwhelming likelihood is
that they continue to ramp them up very deliberately and we've seen that really all season all 2026 they have been very very deliberate with Shane Bieber they have stuck to a plan I don't expect that to change just because of what's happening in the major leagues one way or the other win or lose you know whether they sweep the Yankees whether they're swept by the Yankees I just I think that to your point they are going to try to do what's right by by Bieber but
It creates two spots right now at the back of the rotation where currently you have Scherzer in one, you have Corbin in the other, and it's totally fine. I think for now, those are the guys who are going to take those bulk innings. I think you prefer that to Chad Dallas or Simeon Woods Richardson or Spencer Miles.
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