Chapter 1: What are the latest jobless claims and their implications?
Jobless claims. And of course, these are for the weekend, January 3rd. So there are potential seasonality issues here. 208,000. That's a bit below estimates. Last week's 199 pops back over 200,000. Suffice it to say. These are really well-behaved initial jobless claims. On the continuing side, always a week in arrears. These are the week ending December 27th.
So once again, there are seasonal issues here. 1,914,000, very close to estimates. Last week, well, we remained under 1.9 million. The 1,866,000 becomes 1,858,000. Also well-behaved as we dabble between being above and below 1.9 million. Let's look at productivity, shall we? The secret salve of the U.S. economy, what Greenspan called the special sauce. Well, this is the third quarter preliminary.
There will be changes. 4.9%, extremely close to estimates, and a really solid number. In the rearview mirror, 3.3% becomes 4.1% for the last quarter's final. So 4.9%. Wow, you have to go a long way back to find a higher number. We have to go all the way back to the third quarter of 2020. Productivity is great. And if we look at unit labor costs, unit labor costs come in, well, 1.9, down 1.9.
That's a minus sign. They are lower. Unit labor costs are lower. That's always good news. And in the rearview mirror, the 1% to the upside becomes minus 2.9 to the downside as costs drop. And finally, on the trade balance, which we know is going to be a deficit, we're expecting a number around $58 billion. Buckle up. This is unreal, the movement in this number. Minus $29.4 billion.
We cut it basically in half. This is the primal scream of a dying regime. Pray for our enemies, because we're going medieval on these people. I got a free shot on all these networks lying about the people. The people have had a belly full of it. I know you don't like hearing that. I know you've tried to do everything in the world to stop that, but you're not going to stop it.
It's going to happen. And where do people like that go to share the big lie?
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Chapter 2: How does productivity affect the current state of the economy?
MAGA Media. I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a conscience. Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose? If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved. War Room. Here's your host, Stephen K. Bann. It's Thursday, 8 January, Year of Our Lord, 2026. Thank you for sticking around for the second hour of the morning edition of The War Room.
We're here in the studios of The Economic War Room, the great Kevin Freeman. Thank you. This studio is unbelievable. I'm so glad you're here. I know. I've always been close to you, and your take on things is my take on things. I'm going to get you into this conversation. That's where I'd head you up. I've got Mal Pass, and I've got Joe LaVarnier over at Treasury. Joe...
We should be skipping around lighting our hair on fire. Productivity number, the trade deficit. Of course, only Santelli wants to talk about it. That's why Rick Santelli is the great. Rick Santelli, the great. Trade deficit. You cut the trade deficit in half. Navarro and the team, it's working. The productivity number hasn't been seen. Now, wait for this, folks.
Connect the dots has not been seen since. January 2020. Who was president of the United States back then? Donald Trump. Before the Chinese Communist Party hit us with, and Fauci hit us with the pandemic. Because remember, the fourth quarter of 2019 was nirvana.
Low interest rates, no inflation, blue collar, wages rising higher than white collar, high school graduates higher than college graduates. It was literally the The economic engine of President Trump, of populist nationalism, cutting ā stopping illegal immigration, all of it clicked. You had the Biden years. We were handed a disaster. LaVornier, you and Besson ā Besson's in Minneapolis.
This is what I said the other day to him. Hey, would this thing happen in Minneapolis? You must ā because this speech has been ā Locked in for a couple of weeks. You've got to go out there and talk to the business community and talk to citizens about what President Trump's economic package is, because that's the engine is going to drive us through here.
And then people are going to realize, hey, the illegal alien situation is what's dragging the economy down. Joe LaVarnier, can you walk us through the math that we heard this morning? Yes, Steve, thank you.
First was the President making sure, with the Secretary's help and many others, that we didn't have a massive tax hike, the biggest ever, occurring in 2026, solidifying those gains from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, but then encouraging other phenomenon, other tools, so that you get strong productivity growth.
And you get strong productivity growth through deregulation, cheap and abundant energy, raising the cost lowering the cost of capital, raising its return by having full expensing of capital expenditures, adding the novel approach of full expensing for factories, and then you encourage investment in this capital formation will lead to higher wages.
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Chapter 3: What are the recent trends in trade balance and their significance?
So the productivity number that Rick had mentioned was about 5%. There are other measures of productivity, which actually even from a core perspective are even stronger, which is known as non-financial sector productivity is rising even faster. But the point is a disinflationary boom has been laid in place, been created. We're seeing the GDP numbers.
It's now just a matter of time before we see it in the job market. And yesterday's jolts numbers, I think, were misreported in the press. It showed that the level of openings are down. They came from a really high level, but that was because of all the supply disruptions that occurred during the pandemic. We're essentially at a job openings rate. That's exactly where it was during the first
three years of the Trump boom back from 17 to 19. So to me, things look great. The trade deficit numbers are excellent. It's happening, Steve, because exports are surging almost 30 percent annualized in the last three months, while imports are down. They're almost down 30 percent annualized. So it's a great combination of what's happening.
And it's playing out exactly the way President Trump would describe it and how Secretary Bassett envisioned it playing out itself. You're starting to see the traction.
The Trump plan and coming at Liberation Day being on April 1st, then the work through to get the supply-side tax cut to make sure that we can turbocharge capital investment, and now the conversions of that, the tariffs, as two things, a forcing function to force people to come here and build manufacturing plants here, or if you don't, pay the tariffs or the tolling fee to get here.
President Trump said, yes, I think he thinks it's going to be a trillion dollars. It's some big number.
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Chapter 4: How have recent policies impacted labor costs and productivity?
But you're starting to see the green sprouts of the economic plan. You can't turn an aircraft carrier around immediately, but you can tell the direction this is going. And you see it from the productivity numbers. You see it from the trade deficit numbers. You see it from the increase in exports and the decrease in imports.
I mean, everything that we've planned for, everything that Scott Besson and the president have walked through, you're starting to get the traction on that. And we really haven't even gotten to the tax refunds and things that are going to happen in this spring. And I think, Dan, you're going to see the big turbocharge for really what's happening with the supply-side tax cuts, sir.
Steve, what has been misreported or not reported, I should say, in the press is that in the first, the data we have from when President Trump took office to November shows real wage growth, blue collar wages, what are known as non-supervisory production workers within the employment report, rising about one and a half, 1.6%.
That's a huge increase, one of the largest we've ever had to start a new administration. Now, fast forward, you're into 2026, the no tax on tips, the no tax on overtime, that will further lift nominal wages. That's the result of President Trump's policies. But importantly, equally important is the president lowering the cost of living for key items such as energy.
You're seeing energy move substantially lower. Gasoline prices nationally are only around 275, 280 a gallon. that is significantly lower than where they've been. That is a tax cut for everyday working Americans.
And as the inflation rate moves lower, that will further expand real wages, which then get the added kick from those productivity gains that are starting and are set to continue through 26 and beyond. You used a phrase. I want to make sure we don't bury the lead here. Disinflationary growth. This is so important. You're having growth that doesn't look ā yeah, go ahead. Boom.
Walk us through that because it ā this is kind of the reverse of how you've been hammered. Take a second and walk us through that.
Yeah, so a disinflationary boom is one where the economy's underlying potential, its ability to create jobs, its ability to create income, its ability to create wealth, its ability to provide the goods and services that people want because the economy is growing quickly, it's generating revenues quickly. It's lowering the deficit relative to GDP.
All the good things that economic theory tells us about how you raise living standards is starting to play out. So a disinflationary boom is where the economy's speed limit, we can grow faster. We're not gonna grow at the sub 2% rate, let's say the CBO predicts, and then they say there's gonna be a debt Armageddon, because yeah, if we grew that week, we would have a problem.
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Chapter 5: What is the significance of the productivity numbers from the Trump administration?
We just heard Joe Livornia talking about supply-side growth policies. Those are working. And the idea that there can be an economic boom, I want to tell that, and I hope the president and the administration can tell that to the people of Nigeria, that you can have an economic boom if you allow markets to operate
and you get away from the control of your central banks, there won't be the Islamic terrorists with Kalashnikovs coming in and killing Christians in Nigeria. Hang on, hang on, hang on. I got that, I got that. But that's lecture in Nigeria, fine. But what does President Trump have to do here? Because he's got these big institutions. We have a growth plan.
That's what the whole, we talk about this on the show all the time. It's a risky bet, but you mitigate the risk because, as Scott said all the time and you said, if you didn't do a supply-side tax cut this time, it was gone. You didn't have another chance, right? You had to go to another model. We've got it, and we now know we've got GDP growth, 4.3%. You now have had the backup numbers today.
Things are directionally moving in the right direction, and you see the green sprout of the theory of supply-side is actually working. However... He's got institutions like the Federal Reserve, like the World Bank, like IMF, and these other globalist institutions that, through the executive order, he did not get us out of, et cetera.
And as you've talked about, they are anti-growth, and their policies are anti-growth. Before we lecture the Nigerians or the rest of the world of the benefits of capitalism, we've got to have capitalism here. This is my whole point. We don't have a capitalist system. We have a corporatist system.
And the driver and one of the foundational elements of the corporatist system is a central bank and the lords of easy money on Wall Street that fight against populist economics. What's your recommendation? President of the United States thinks very highly of you. What's your recommendation to the President of the United States that we've got to take the torch to the enemy here, sir?
That's exactly right. And there needs to be new models, sweeping reform of the models. You know what? The central banks around the world It's not just the Fed. It's the IMF and central banks worldwide think that inflation targeting works. It doesn't at all. We need a price rule monetary policy. That's a core part of supply side. And that's consistent with what President Trump wants.
That's dollar dominance. You know, you're right that we're getting toward energy dominance, but we're still weak on the dollar. And that gives us the new investment into the U.S., that's going to allow us to rebuild all of the supply chains. So that needs to be core changed at the Federal Reserve. I think Davos is an opportunity to say it, that we stand for prices being stable.
And that means central banks have to stop with their stupid models, the Phillips curve, the Nairu model, the QE. Secretary Besson, has been really clear on that not working. It causes income inequality. But what did the Fed do on December 11? They announced another round of QE, the expansion of their balance sheet.
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Chapter 6: How do current economic conditions compare to past administrations?
And then best of the day, cut the money off. So they're in the mumble tank on this. Where do people go to get your social media, David? at David R. Malpass. And people can also just plain Google things like IMF quota increase. That shows you that the international organizations are fully planning to grow. And so far, that hasn't been cut off.
Beyond the 66 that they did, there's another 66 that are even bigger that need to be reconsidered. Tell you what, we're going to have you on again and go through the second wave of the 66, the bigger ones and the gnarly ones. Hopefully the Wall Street Journal, Paul G. Joe and the team over there will allow you to continue to put those great op-eds up on the Wall Street Journal.
David Malpass, thank you so much, sir. Appreciate you. Thanks, Steve. Kevin Friedman, your assessment. Well, we're talking about decreased taxes, decreased regulation, decreased globalization, and stable money. You put those together, you've got a booming economy. And full-spectrum energy dominance. You have a booming economy. A disinflationary boom.
I don't think I've ever heard that phrase before, right? It's the exact opposite of stagflation. If you've got stagflation, we've got inflationary recession. This is disinflation. Well, remember, no growth under Biden. You know, many months that you actually had retreats, so you had the beginnings of a recession, plus high inflation. That's classic stagflation.
Well, because we grew the government faster than we grew the economy, and that's what happened. Well, if you actually backed out the government spending, the massive government spending under Biden, you'd had negative growth the entire time. As soon as you back out Because that's a trick they pull, right? They have the massive spending.
Now, you are one of the folks that focuses on deficits, debt, and the dollar. We have a $2 trillion deficit. The president wants to increase national security, wants to basically double it from $800 billion to roughly $1.5 trillion. He says the tariffs will offset that. What's your concern about ā because all I see is the deficits. We're not getting a handle around them, right?
I'm just talking about the math. And you've got the debt at $38 trillion and hurtling towards $40 trillion. What say you? Yeah, the number one national security risk we have is our national debt. You would tell the president that.
You're saying, hey, look, I understand you want to go to 1.5 trillion, get hemispheric defense, get all the stuff you're trying to do, but your bigger national security risk is the debt? Yeah, absolutely. National security defense is a legitimate government business. They ought to be in that. But you can't just increase another half trillion to $700 billion in debt without repercussions.
We've got to reduce our deficit. We've got to stabilize that because we've grown government faster than we've grown the economy, and that is a trajectory for failure. Talk to me about Economic War Room. Got about a minute. Where do people go to get it? How do they get your social media, all of it? Yeah, Economic War Room is on Blaze Television and about 10 other platforms.
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Chapter 7: What are the challenges facing the American economy today?
Go to HomeTitleLock.com now. Use promo code Steve. That's HomeTitleLock.com. Promo code Steve. Do it today. Do it now. Here's your host, Stephen K. Bann. Okay, we've had... A clip from Rick Santelli. We've had a major interview with one of the senior guys in the Treasury Department about the economic speech Scott Besson's going to make today in the numbers. That's Joe LaVarnier.
We've had David Malpass, former head of the World Bank, and the number three guy in the Treasury Department, President Trump's historic first term. We've got Kevin Friedman, economic warfare borrower. So we've covered capital markets in the economy, and we still haven't done enough. But What I need you to do today is to go to birchgold.com, promo code war room, or excuse me, promo code Bannon.
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We told you something's happening big in the world, particularly with the stagflation, what Biden was doing with this massive federal spending. And we gave you the tools. It's not the price of gold. It's not, you know, people get on here and these other shares and they're hawking the price of gold. It is the process that drives the value of gold.
You have to understand that that's what we're trying to teach you with Birch Gold. Go check it out today. Talk to Philip Patrick. They've got all types of ways they can get you into gold and precious metals, IRAs, 401ks. That's the processing of it. The important thing is for you to learn. Why gold has been a hedge for 5,000 years, a man's recorded history. And Bert Scholl, the guy's the teacher.
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The book's coming out in the spring, Four Horsemen, but you've got these six things that are going to destroy America, and they seem like they're linked. Just walk me through it one more time. Yeah. All right. The four horsemen are China, Islamists, globalists and traitors and cowards here in America. And the six trials by fire is the first ones are debt.
The problem with our monetary policy is that they have to buy all this government debt because the government's overspending. That's the problem. That debt's now 38 and a half trillion. It's increased approximately quadrupled every two decades. You can't do that. It's unsustainable. It's debt. If we continue on that path, then our enemies will beat us. And we're going to destroy the U.S.
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Chapter 8: What future economic policies are being proposed to stimulate growth?
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