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Baseball Isn’t Boring

BIB on the Go: Lucas Giolito On His Underlying Numbers & ABS

10 Apr 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0.031 - 2.796 Lucas Giolito

Yeah, there should be some passion. This doesn't have to be boring.

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3.316 - 10.448 Bradfo

You don't get bored by baseball. Okay, one thing the game needs is more people like you. You. You. You. You. You. You. You.

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11.911 - 23.57 Lucas Giolito

You. You. You. You. You. You. You. You. You. You. You. You.

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24.712 - 33.209 Bradfo

You. So this sort of dovetails, I said I wanted to talk about one of the things that you got a chance to is look at baseball from a different perspective right now.

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Chapter 2: How are underlying numbers affecting pitcher evaluations?

34.611 - 57.808 Bradfo

But one of the things that we had talked about modeling, we had talked about value, how a pitcher is valued. And even now, we're starting to see that maybe the way that some teams thought. This was going to work this year isn't necessarily working out the same way. The way that you pitch has any teams at all or insinuated say, hey, this is good or this is bad.

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57.848 - 77.238 Bradfo

This is going to play or this isn't going to play under the new world, you know, or am I making too much of like how much this AB has that system? Are we talking about ABS? No, I mean strike zone or whatever it is. Or even the way that hitters approach things. You know, because you know how it works. We've talked about this.

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77.639 - 81.348 Bradfo

It's like they're valuing one thing one second, they're valuing this the next.

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81.629 - 99.696 Lucas Giolito

Yeah, I'd say right now... I mean, as far as valuating pitching, velocity is huge. Swing and miss, swing and missing zone. The expected numbers are getting weighted a lot. FIP and numbers like that.

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100.917 - 117.159 Lucas Giolito

You know, that probably has something to do with the position I'm in right now to where teams will look at my expected numbers and my underlying numbers from last year and be like, he's going to regress. Yeah. So you can't argue with it. It is what it is. It can only work on getting better.

118.2 - 139.505 Bradfo

I mean, I've gone on rants about this. I went on a rant on the radio about it in the middle of a game. Because I'm sure you listen to the AM radio spring training Red Sox games. But for the last three innings, actually, my partner, Cooper, he said, we're talking about Quinn Priester. And Quinn Preece is like, oh, well, some, you know, I said, oh, you get a really good year.

139.926 - 149.06 Bradfo

He's like, oh, yeah, but some teams are worried that he's underlying. I'm like, underlying? He got outs. Like, he got outs. And he did it, by the way, all the way to the end.

149.621 - 182.841 Lucas Giolito

Yeah. I don't know. There isn't. That's the thing is you don't have analytic stats that quantify. I like to call it dog. Right. That there's no there's no analytics for that. So. you know i think that certain certain teams probably all teams value that to a certain extent but we are living in a world where the the computers dictate a lot and models projections things like that so

182.821 - 185.889 Lucas Giolito

You know, that's just that's where we're at in the game. It is what it is.

Chapter 3: What is the significance of ABS in modern baseball?

197.047 - 205.256 Bradfo

Look at me. I got outs, you know, instead of projections. I mean, again, not naming names, but it must have been that way.

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206.377 - 217.67 Lucas Giolito

I feel like when I look at free agency as a whole, you know, looking at like starting pitchers in my class that were free agents and what they signed for and who they signed with, I think it kind of checked out.

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217.79 - 229.307 Bradfo

All right. All right. I'm not in your shoes, so I don't know. I can say that. So when you look at games, do you watch games? Mm-hmm. Okay. I know you watch games.

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229.407 - 231.33 Lucas Giolito

I got friends in the league, so I watch them.

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232.972 - 245.86 Bradfo

What's your takeaway from this? We talk about, believe me, and I say ABS, more the strike zone, about how the strike zone has changed. I don't know. The floor is yours. You're watching the game.

245.92 - 254.543 Lucas Giolito

What do you say? I watch the games and I talk to guys. Yeah. The strike zone's small. So...

255.215 - 284.749 Lucas Giolito

know it requires pitchers to be to be on their on their p's and q's you know uh throwing strikes yeah um more so than in the past more so than ever i mean you watch any game from like the early 2000s and before and it's just different yeah i mean you you watch you watch so many of those games the strike zone would depending would be you know this far off the plate uh that doesn't exist anymore yeah um and even if a umpire does screw one up that

284.813 - 309.308 Lucas Giolito

And if it's a good hitter that has good recognition of the strike zone, they'll immediately challenge and win. It's a ball. Yeah, and umpires aren't going to take that chance. Yeah, umpires want to get great. They're getting graded, too, just like players are. That's the feedback I'm getting, is the strike zone feels smaller because umpires are very much aware of ABS. They want to be graded well.

309.768 - 326.357 Lucas Giolito

They want to do well offensively. So, you know, they're trying to be cognizant of that. And, you know, the everyone you can challenge pitches now and overturn them, which can change the course of a game. Yeah. In the right situation.

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