Episode 90 - Measurement and risk management with Doug Hubbard

Are you better at judgment than a model of you?  In this episode of Battling with Business, Gareth and Chris dive deep into the world of data-driven decision-making with renowned expert Doug Hubbard, author of the popular series of books How to Measure Anything. Doug shares ground-breaking insights on how businesses can revolutionise their approach to project management by focusing on what truly matters: measuring the right variables and embracing quantitative models over flawed human intuition. Doug explains how simple yet powerful tools like Monte Carlo simulations can outpace even the most seasoned experts in forecasting outcomes—whether in project management, sports predictions, or investment strategies. He highlights the common pitfalls of human judgment, such as inconsistency, selective memory, and overconfidence, which often lead to poor decision-making. By adopting scientifically proven methods, businesses can overcome these challenges and dramatically improve their results. One of the key takeaways from this episode is Doug’s emphasis on measuring uncertainty in project benefits, rather than just focusing on costs. Many organizations fall into the trap of measuring what’s easy rather than what’s valuable. Doug shows that by focusing on the right metrics, businesses can unlock untapped potential and improve performance in ways that standard project management techniques have failed to deliver. The conversation also explores the exciting future of AI and human-AI collaboration in project management. Doug argues that while AI can surpass human decision-making in certain areas, it should be viewed as a powerful tool to augment human expertise. From running simulations to testing decision-making models, AI has the potential to enhance forecasting, reduce risk, and help leaders make better-informed decisions in complex projects. Listeners will come away with a fresh perspective on decision-making, armed with practical strategies to implement data-driven methods that can lead to measurable improvements in project outcomes. This episode is a must-listen for business leaders, project managers, and anyone looking to embrace a more scientific approach to solving real-world challenges.

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