Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Well, howdy there, Internet people. It's Belle again. So today, we're going to talk about Trump saving $4 trillion. Kind of.
Chapter 2: What is the significance of Trump saving $4 trillion?
The Congressional Budget Office has released some numbers about Trump's tariffs, and it's important to go over what they mean. Not just in the economic sense, but what they mean for you. Because you probably want to get ready for it. First, a question to start us off. So, I'm just wondering if you plan on covering Trump's tariffs, eliminating $4 trillion in debt by 2035.
I know you don't believe Trump, but these numbers come from the Congressional Budget Office, which is a source you cite. You didn't seem to think they'd work, but it sure looks like they're going to bring in money. Have any thoughts on this?
Chapter 3: How do Trump's tariffs impact the economy and consumers?
Sure. First, debt and deficit aren't the same thing. The debt is the credit card balance. The deficit is how much you're charging extra each year. The US debt is expected to reach $53 trillion by 2035, not go down from its current level of $37 trillion.
Second, the CBO projection said tariff revenue would reduce the deficit by $3.3 trillion, which is less than the projected $3.4 trillion increase from his one big Beautiful for Billionaires budget. So, he's still in the red there. But you can give him the $700 billion that could be saved by interest payments. That's why headlines say $4 trillion.
Now, I never said that tariffs won't raise revenue. I said they can't raise revenue while bringing jobs back. And also, you're going to pay for it. Tariffs charge the importer for goods coming in. If production switched to the US to create jobs, it wouldn't generate revenue. The CBO projection is based on the idea that jobs aren't coming back. If jobs come back, the revenue would fall.
But let's just use your $4 trillion number for the next part. How much of that are Americans paying? About a month ago, strategists at JP Morgan estimated that about a third of the costs of the tariffs are being paid by, well, us, the consumer. It's worth noting, since then, more and more companies have indicated they're going to pass the costs on.
And this number is viewed as the most conservative estimate possible because it was based on what was happening early on. But we're just going to use it anyway. But you should know, the real number is going to be higher. $4 trillion divided by 129 million households. Congrats, you're paying a little more than $10,000 extra based on the most conservative estimate.
You know what's funny about that number? That's based on the consumer share early on. And if you break it down by year, it's kind of right in the range of what economists were saying it was going to cost each American household. When Harris called it a Trump tax, she was right. The government is collecting money you will eventually pay. And the debt still isn't going down.
For most people, the cost of the tariffs is going to be more than the amount they saved on their income tax. Billionaires don't represent the working class. Ever. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.
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