Beau of The Fifth Column
Let's talk about unemployment fears being higher than the great recession....
20 Aug 2025
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Well, howdy there, Internet people. It's Belle again. So today we're going to talk about unemployment fears being higher than the Great Recession. So we got a message and it's definitely worth going over because it showcases how the economy works and why we're in trouble in plain language.
Chapter 2: What are the current unemployment fears compared to the Great Recession?
Ms. Bell, I'm sure you've seen the University of Michigan numbers about unemployment worries. I'm curious why you think they're so high. I would guess you think they'll go up, too. But as of right now, they aren't, and inflation is down, and the PPI numbers haven't translated into price increases. I just don't understand the record high unemployment fears. Yes, I watched the Michigan numbers.
Chapter 3: Why are unemployment fears at a record high according to recent data?
And what they just told us is that more people are worried about unemployment than at any point since the Great Recession. But that's also economists reading it, not an exact number. Here's what you need to know. Generally, overall, going back for years and years and years, the baseline number for people expecting unemployment to get worse over the next year is a bit over 20%. It's currently 62%.
That's really, really high, but not actually a record. In fact, it's been worse since Trump took office. The problem for economists is that when Trump took office, the number shot up to 50 or so percent and haven't been below since. About 50% is in line with the spike that occurred over COVID. Yes, Trump is as damaging as a global pandemic.
The thing is, the COVID era 50% was a single month reading that high. We're now at five or six months over 50%. So he's actually more damaging than a global pandemic. The last time the numbers were this high for this long was the Great Recession. That's a drain. If people are worried about unemployment, they tend to spend less.
In fact, a different report, also from the University of Michigan, shows that 58% of consumers plan on cutting back on spending this year. You said unemployment isn't here yet. The federal July numbers say 4.2%, but a number of states like Oregon, Ohio, California, and more are posting 5% numbers. Inflation isn't down either. It's just not going up as fast as expected yet.
Producer inflation is up, and people know that will translate into higher prices for them. People are worried for a very simple reason. They don't react to the hard economic data. Remember, people thought inflation was bad under Biden, even once it was back down. The economy cares about your feelings.
Americans, even MAGA Americans, understand that higher prices are coming and they're more worried. Not just because they're worried about layoffs, but the higher prices make the prospect of unemployment scarier. People are also worried about grant cuts, benefit cuts, and so on that make unemployment scarier. So, more people are worried.
There's a lot of people out there attempting to cherry pick numbers that cast Trump's policies in a good light. But there's no denying that when taken as a whole, the economy is not on a firm footing. And I think people know that. They may not understand the finer points of the Fed's dual mandate and them trying to balance unemployment and inflation.
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Chapter 4: What factors contribute to rising consumer anxiety about unemployment?
But they understand the concept of a catch-22. Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.