In this episode, Scott Becker shares 14 quick takes on current market trends, investor sentiment, trade tensions, and economic outlooks.
Chapter 1: What are the current market trends and recent market movements?
This is Scott Becker with the Becker Private Equity and Business Podcast. These are 14 short notes today that we're following today. First, the markets dropped heavily late yesterday, but the markets aren't down as much today as maybe people feared with these new tariffs going into effect. In fact, the markets are pretty fairly split this morning. We'll see if that holds throughout the day.
Chapter 2: How are investors reacting to recent market dips?
Second, One Goldman Sachs strategist says, you're starting to see investors buy the dip, but that order book is very soft, very tepid. So we'll see how that goes, too, if people start to buy into this. Third, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who's a really, really bright guy, says we're more likely than not to see us head into a recession that can lead to 2 million jobless.
Chapter 3: What is the economic outlook and recession risk?
We'll see how that goes. This is if the trade war continues. Fourth, We're close to what's considered a beer market, where the market's down 20% from its highs. This is a drop from the highs. But fifth, you have to remember, I looked yesterday. The S&P is still up about 80% in aggregate over the last five years. You've got to remember, the markets just don't go up directionally forever.
Chapter 4: What defines a bear market and where does the market stand now?
They do have ups and downs. And I think you've sort of got to take a deep breath on all this stuff. Sixth. At some point, I think President Trump will start to cut trade deals with some of our bigger trading partners. I don't think he's going to do it with small trading partners because then it's going to sort of show his hand to the bigger trade partners.
Chapter 5: How has the market performed over the last five years?
When he does start to cut these bigger trade deals, I do think you'll see the markets really start to recover. Seventh, we're thrilled today to feature on our webinar, Sean Carson of Sales Empowerment Group on growing revenues and a changing economy, a great topic for today. Eighth, we're running a Twitter survey today on whether or not you're going to cut spending based on the market downturn.
Chapter 6: What are the expectations for future trade deals and their impact?
So far, the results show essentially 48% of people saying they're going to cut spending About 52% say they're not. Some of the interesting comments are plenty of people that are in the job market that have jobs but don't have equities are pretty... strong-minded about, this doesn't affect me, and I'm glad to see jobs coming back.
Chapter 7: Who is the featured guest on the upcoming webinar and what will they discuss?
And so there is a certain tone of that that you get in the responses on Twitter on this whole market turmoil. And it does show the stark divide in our country between the 50 or so percent that own equities and the 40 percent or so that don't. And those numbers are not exact, but somewhere around there. Ninth, it seems as though President Trump, aside from other motives,
Chapter 8: What do survey results reveal about consumer spending amid market downturns?
His intent on forcing two things to happen, Chairman Powell to cut rates and the Chinese to come to him and negotiate. It's fascinating to watch to try and understand his thinking. He has a love-hate relationship, maybe more hate-hate with Chairman Powell, and has wanted to force his hands for a while and control the Fed.
It's a bad idea for the president to control the Fed, but President Trump finds a way to do it regardless. Just fascinating to watch. Tenth, we follow what we call the Levin Fair and Anxiety Index. That is jumping to higher levels than it's been in a while. Reported to me at 7.1 today. Eleventh, I think we're on 11 now.
Leading investor, David Staffman, great investor, is playing the golf of his life and sort of making up for market losses on the golf course. Really playing better than I've seen him play in years. It's somewhat shocking. Twelfth, This is obviously not a serious post, but I need a 12-step program to admit I have no power over my putting. I broke down yesterday.
I bought a new trouble, a new putter. It may be the best medicine for a bad day. You know, I know it's not a real fix. 13th, Warren Buffett says this brilliantly, as always. You can't do good deals with bad people. I feel like recently was trying to force a deal. And so happy didn't happen. You can't fit a square peg into a round hole.
Fourteenth, finally, and we did a podcast on this yesterday, life in the big scheme of things is damn good, and be damn thankful for everything that you have. Be grateful and thankful every day, and try and ignore some of the noise out there. Thank you for listening to the Becker Private Equity and Business Podcast, and thank you, as always, to Chanel Bunger, our tremendous producer.
Thank you very, very much.
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