Destabilisation and Peak Exuberance

Blain’s Morning Porridge 19th Dec 2025 – Destabilisation and Peak Exuberance “There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” Markets are winding down for the holiday break, but the news flow continues to hint at rising destability and noise, hinting the future economic path will get more twisty and difficult. Lower rates and QE fuelled markets (but not growth) in the 2010s, but won’t work when there is a strong inflationary impulse in place!LINK TO PODCASTUnless something dramatic happens in the next two weeks, this is the last Morning Porridge of 2025. I will therefore wish everyone a very Merry Christmas, Solstice or whatever, and a Guid and Prosperous 2026. I have a massive pile of interesting books to read, a recovering wife to look after, friends to spend time with, and a damn smart dog, Dinnerjacket Wrigglebottom (DeeJay to his mates), who takes me out for long walks explaining me the economics of treats. Perfect… nothing to distract me for the next 2 weeks, baring interruptions…I reckon the coming year is going to be more challenging than we expect – I don’t think we understand just how much the world changed in 2025, or how the consequences are yet to play out. Global uncertainty will remain a destabilising theme – every day there is something new, each of seemingly limited import, but which will add up to a mighty noise:Last night’s failure by Europe to act decisively by using seized Russian Assets to finance Ukraine for fear of Fitch Ratings (Who???) downgrading Euroclear, confirms the headless chicken dither in Yoorp over the necessity to take ownership of the War.The American President went on National TV for 20 minutes to rant at American voters how good the economy is – the WSJ fact checked him and announced 91% of his claims were bogus.The Bank of England narrowly voted to cut rates despite inflation fears… Angels on a pinhead… Regular readers of the Morning Porridge will know that as a dour Scotsman I am seldom mistaken for a ray of Sunshine. I’ve been bearish on overvalued stock markets and the market’s over-active speculation gland since 2010, the beginning of the QE Era. 16 years is a long time waiting for my negativity to finally fall into place – but who knows…. Maybe this time…You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

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