Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Subject to credit approval, Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Salt Lake City branch. Terms and more at applecard.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Well, let's bring you more now on the conflict in the Middle East with the attacks now in their seventh day.
Iran stepping up strikes, as we were hearing, on countries across the Gulf with the number of alerts in the region being reported this morning. Let's discuss now with Cathy Ashton, who is the EU's first High Representative in Foreign Affairs from 2009 to 2014 and a key negotiator of the previous Iran nuclear deal known as the JCPOA. Cathy Ashton, good morning. Welcome to Bloomberg Radio. Hello.
What is your reading of the situation in the Middle East today? Do you see any path to de-escalation from where we are now? Well, I think there are a couple of things. First of all, it's important that we try and find out what exactly President Trump's ambition is for how this will end. Because on the one hand, there's a degrading of Iran's potential nuclear program.
And of course, the removal of ballistic missiles and launchers and so on, preventing Iran from playing any significant role in the region or with its proxies. And on the other hand, you have the prospect of some kind of regime change, which is a much longer process, as we know from other countries and other experiences.
And where you're trying to look for people who can lead the country in a different direction. And that so far has proved, I think, quite elusive. for President Trump, despite him saying he wants to be involved in choosing that person, despite them talking about a variety of different people, some of whom have been killed, some of whom don't seem to be appearing on the horizon.
So there is a sort of bigger question about what is the objective when it comes to Iran. And then, of course, there is a question of what Tehran is trying to do by sending missiles all over the Gulf. Is it about trying to send warning signals? Is it specifically about targeting U.S. military facilities? Or as we've seen, is it broader?
And are they trying to say to countries, you've got to tell the Americans and Israelis to cut back on this because it's for your own safety? Well, what should we make of the potential successes to the late Ayatollah? Trump says that his second oldest son is unacceptable. Well, that's right.
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Chapter 2: What is the current situation in the Middle East regarding Iran?
And this is where it gets kind of interesting, if I can use that word, in terms of what the Americans want to achieve. There have been a number of names that have been thrown around. Ali Larajan is one. The Ayatollah's second son is, as you say, another. If these are unacceptable people, well, where are the acceptable people?
The problem in Iran has been, I think, that we don't see the level of organized opposition that you would see perhaps in other countries. And that's because they've been oppressed. It's not because people don't oppose the regime. It's because when they do, we see these massacres, we see people imprisoned and so on.
So put very simplistically, if the IRGC wanted to surrender, who would they surrender to? With your experience in negotiating with the Iranians in the past as well, is there any path from here that can lead back to diplomacy on the nuclear issue? Or was this U.S. action inevitable to try and bring an end to any prospective nuclear program in Iran? Well, this is the chosen method, if you like.
When we had the JCPOA, we were confident that Iran could not build a nuclear weapon within at least 12 months of us engaging with them. In other words, that we would have at least a 12-month window in which we could take military action, we could put pressure on them and so on. We had thousands of cameras, hundreds of monitors on site who could see exactly what was going on.
That gave a certainty and a security, we hoped, to the world that we knew what was happening there. President Trump did not agree with that approach. And he has always taken the view that this was about a kind of win-lose, that the Iranians had to give up everything completely in order to achieve what he wanted. So it's hard to see how we get back to diplomacy in the traditional sense.
Having said that, all conflicts end with people sitting around a table. Even if they are the complete loser, there is a conversation to be had about what happens next. So at some point, people somewhere will have to sit down and start talking.
Before we get there, Cathy, has President Trump made a strategic error by alienating his European allies, many of whom are now refusing to allow US forces to use their bases? Well, I think this is a really interesting question because what we've seen has been a breadth and spread of support or not support from across Europe.
You've had Chancellor Merz, who seems to be the most forward-leaning in some ways, in support of the American action. You've had the Prime Minister, who under international law believed that the beginning of this was inappropriate but was willing ā
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Chapter 3: What insights does Catherine Ashton have on de-escalation in the Iran conflict?
to help, of course, in defence of people in the Gulf. And then you've got the Spanish Prime Minister who said absolutely not. And they probably represent the classic European mix of feeling and thinking about this. But at some point, the Europeans will have to and will come together. Brussels is an extraordinary place where in the end, you do get a kind of consensus.
It may not be what everybody wants all the time, but it's a sort of way of trying to come together and actually decide what they're going to do. But for them, too, they'll be very conscious of what this is meaning for Europe.
our attention span on Ukraine and what's happening because we're thinking about, rightly, the Gulf, but we're not thinking about Ukraine and the implications for missiles and for the ability to be able to support and arm Ukraine effectively in the future.
Is it strategic then for European countries to rally behind the American efforts to try and, as you say, refocus attention on Ukraine and supporting that country? Well, I think there'll be a number of things. I think, first of all, they'll be looking to try and support the Americans when it comes to helping out with the countries of the Gulf. This message is brought to you by Apple Card.
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Subject to credit approval, Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Salt Lake City branch. Terms and more at applecard.com. that are under attack. So I think you will start to see a bit more forward leaning on that because that's important to Europeans, not least because there are Europeans living all over the Gulf.
I think secondly, there'll be a desire to keep the relationship with the United States in good shape as far as they possibly can, especially when it comes to support for Ukraine. But also there's a big economic question underneath all of this, which is about energy prices and about the economies across Europe.
And of course, President Trump is willing to use tariffs as a method to try and bring people to his way of thinking, or at least to say he's not happy with the decisions that they've made. Cathy, we really appreciate you coming in to talk to us today.
Cathy Ashton there, who was the EU's first high representative on foreign affairs from 2009 to 2014, and a key negotiator of the previous Iran nuclear deal. Thank you so much. Hello, I'm Stephen Carroll. I'm in Brussels, where many of Europe's biggest decisions get made. And I'm Caroline Hepke in London. We're the hosts of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast.
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