Ariel Investments Founder John Rogers Talks US Economy
episodePreviously titled “John Rogers, Founder and CEO of Ariel Investments” — renamed by the publisher on Aug 3, 2026
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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We appreciate your patience. I want to go back to something. How are you, first of all? Doing okay, dealing with all this volatility and craziness. Well, is it crazy? I love talking to folks like you. You guys have been investing for a long time. You've seen a lot of market cycles. How do you kind of factor in this one and the stuff that feels like every morning we can wake up and there can either be something out of Washington that really impacts the trade and there are days it doesn't. So how do you kind of work all that into strategy? Well, I think of the 43 years. The noise, if you will. Yeah. I mean, the 43 years of Airedale, we've had lots of ups and downs. The 1987 crash, of course, 08 and 09 financial crisis.
But this is the first time we're seeing like they're sort of we're making this crisis happen. You know, making a conscious decision to make policy decisions, whether it's the tariffs or now whether it's the war. And that's causing all this drama and all this angst. And that's something that's unusual and different for us. How do you trade that? Well, I think on the one hand you trade it is that we know that President Trump cares about the markets. He sees that as a scorecard. So the one positive thing you can pluck out is that eventually he figures out a way to adjust to get things back to a calm state eventually. But you just hope he doesn't go too far, you know, one more time and stretch and do something that really he can't pull it back.
I'm curious about your view on this as it does not relate to markets. It sounded like you were saying that we've entered a new paradigm, at least with the decisions that this administration is making.
What insights does John Rogers share about the current economic climate?
I'm wondering how you're looking at that. We understand what the president wants to achieve with tariffs. I would not say I understand what he wants to achieve right now. Yet, with Iran, we're still waiting to hear exactly what the U.S. wants to achieve there. But how do you view this, not necessarily with regard to markets? What I worry about is that Iran does something that's extraordinarily painful for America or another part of the world. As they fight back and feel like they have to defend their honor, they'll just do something that we'll all have a hard, hard time living with over the long run. So we all saw what happened when the World Trade Center collapsed and all the trauma and drama and extraordinary heartbreak from that situation.
And you just hope that nothing like that happens again ever in the United States or in our friendly countries. I've got to say, I went right there after this happened, and that's what I thought about retaliation. Any of us who were here in New York during 9-11 remember it like it was yesterday. And it does make me a little scared, and I'm not an alarmist, but it did make me think, okay, what's the retaliation of all of this? We're going to set that aside for now. We can shift back to markets, Carol. We can shift back to markets. Well, I want to go back to something you said actually in January, and I was doing some read-in on this. And you said the U.S. will likely slide into a small recession at the end of the year.
Stock market will drop as average income consumers struggle with high living costs.
What strategies does John Rogers suggest for navigating market volatility?
Um, and this was, I think at the executives, uh, club of Chicago's annual outlook event.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–2:20
2
What insights does John Rogers share about the current economic climate?
2:20–3:46
3
What strategies does John Rogers suggest for navigating market volatility?
3:46–9:14
4
How do political decisions impact market dynamics according to John Rogers?
9:14–14:33
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