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Bloomberg Tech

US Eases Path for Nvidia to Sell H200s to China

14 Jan 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0.031 - 14.58 Caroline Hyde

AI agents are getting pretty impressive. You might not even realise you're listening to one right now. But we don't just talk. We work 24-7 to solve customer problems. No hold music, just answers and action. Visit sierra.ai to learn more.

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15.387 - 38.71 Stephanie Flanders

Donald Trump is rewriting the Washington rulebook and reshaping the global economy. If you're trying to connect the dots behind the headlines, Bloomberg's Trumponomics podcast is here to help. I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of government and economics at Bloomberg. Every week I'll bring you a smart, focused conversation with reporters and experts from Washington, Wall Street and beyond.

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39.631 - 44.196 Stephanie Flanders

Listen to new episodes every Wednesday and follow Trumponomics wherever you listen.

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47.737 - 65.442 Ed Ludlow

Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Lovelow in San Francisco.

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67.48 - 91.278 Deepak Pathak

This is Bloomberg Tech. Coming up, the U.S. Commerce Department moves closer to allowing NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China. Plus, robotic startup Skilled AI just closed a $1.4 billion funding round, tripling its valuation in seven months. We'll discuss with the CEO, Deepak Papak. And Netflix is working to revise its bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, shifting to an all cash offer.

91.718 - 108.237 Deepak Pathak

As you see, though, those names in the red and in general, the market on the downside. We still got geopolitical anxiety. We still got earnings coming thick and fast. And we still got an asset 100 off by one and a half percent. Not so in the world of commodities. A search for safety, a bid as the dollar falls.

108.217 - 131.345 Deepak Pathak

We see 2.8% higher on the Bitcoin rally, so maybe a bit of catch up with digital gold, where we see spot gold and a new record high. Up 0.7%, copper, all important commodity to our world of AI and data centers, Ed. We're at a new record high on an intraday basis. We're up 0.5%, just coming off of that high on the day, but Ed, it's notable and shift of this year. Right.

131.405 - 152.745 Deepak Pathak

Rules and requirements are changing in the world of AI chips. The U.S. Commerce Department out with clarification, which impacts NVIDIA and its H200 that it wants to ship to China, but also impacts AMD as well. AMD has been trading all over the place this morning, at one point notably higher in the session, but NVIDIA markedly down, now trading at its lowest level in around a month.

153.086 - 168.548 Deepak Pathak

What are these new rules and what do they mean and why is this significant? Bloomberg Senior Tech Editor Mike Shepard joins us out of D.C., lay out the new rules and requirements for us. But what we're saying in the Bloomberg story is this marks a significant moment for the companies in their efforts to sell into China. Why?

Chapter 2: What recent changes has the US Commerce Department made regarding Nvidia's H200 chips?

334.504 - 347.541 Deepak Pathak

Mike Sheppard, thanks so much. Let's stick with what this means for NVIDIA and more broadly for semiconductors. Beth Kindig's with us, IO Fund Lead Tech Analyst. So is this a $50 billion annual revenue opportunity? Is China that for NVIDIA?

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348.402 - 366.535 Beth Kindig

Hey, Caroline. Jensen Wang has stated it's a $50 billion per year annual opportunity. When we left off, it was about $5 billion a quarter. That's $25 billion. So somewhere between $25 billion and $50 billion, which really means that as we look into analyst estimates, they are probably too low.

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366.855 - 389.954 Beth Kindig

And that has been something from the very beginning that we have found alpha in, is that analysts are really struggling to wrap their head around the opportunity of NVIDIA. And now here comes back the H200s. And where my firm is very focused is calendar year 2027. If you look at these estimates, they are too low as it is, let alone if China revenue resumes.

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390.695 - 395.044 Beth Kindig

What's really interesting, though, is China's response to all of this.

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395.024 - 416.509 Deepak Pathak

You say it's too low how much might be the revenue for NVIDIA in China. But at the same time, we understand that DeepSeat's driving new models. We're seeing them use what they have in a different method that maybe Alibaba and Baidu don't need those 200,000 that they've already put efforts and offers in for. What do you make of the way in which China is going to pivot to domestic chips?

417.265 - 437.511 Beth Kindig

I would argue that right now, the number I had was about 2 million H200s, and there's only about 700,000 available, which means that, once again, NVIDIA's oversubscribed. I have been asked before, who is the next NVIDIA? Is it something like Huawei? You know, is it Google's TPUs? And the answer is, the next NVIDIA is NVIDIA.

438.151 - 444.96 Beth Kindig

They are extremely hard to disrupt, and that goes for China or even United States competitors.

445.885 - 468.417 Deepak Pathak

Beth, taking into account the news story that Mike Shepard just brought us, Jensen Wong told us at CES that the $500 billion forecast for five fiscal quarters, it includes this one for Blackwell Rubin, could get bigger because they could factor in some H200 sales in 26. I know 27 is your year, but have you modelled for that little update that Jensen Wong gave?

469.274 - 488.211 Beth Kindig

Yes, so right now the analyst estimates did actually catch up. They're about 320 billion this calendar year. Let's just go with 2026. I wanna really emphasize that it's next calendar year that we're gonna start to see analyst estimates too low. That is where the alpha is at right now.

Chapter 3: How will the new export rules affect Nvidia and AMD's sales to China?

685.788 - 702.186 Beth Kindig

And Ed, what was... I've covered AMD very thoroughly and we could get into the specs all day long, but OpenAI giving them that six gigawatt deal is a massive nod. I mean, that is a big nod that AMD is a contender from the leading R&D firm.

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702.807 - 724.307 Deepak Pathak

Helios AMD's first rack scale solution, but theirs in the world's first two nanometer chip inside, which they talked up in our interview last week. Beth Kindig of IOFund, great to have you back on Bloomberg Tech. Thank you very much. Now coming up, anger grows over sexually explicit, non-consensual AI generated images on X. We have the latest. This is Bloomberg Tech.

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726.05 - 726.351

Bloomberg Tech.

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735.359 - 748.809 Deepak Pathak

The Supreme Court still hasn't ruled on challenges to President Trump's tariffs, leaving the world to wait until at least next week to learn the fate of his signature economic policy. Remember, my surveillance co-host Anne-Marie Horden joins us right here for more.

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748.829 - 764.992 Anne-Marie Horden

So we delay once again, and that timing could be awkward. It could be awkward. So the Supreme Court punts it once again. They do not come out with a decision on whether or not the majority of actually a lot of this terrifying venue we're bringing in into the United States, more than 70 percent, is tethered to the president using AIPA.

765.152 - 781.532 Anne-Marie Horden

Very flexible, a blunt tool that he has used since he came back into office. And why it could be so awkward is because the president will be in Davos next week and he's going to be meeting with global leaders, the world elite. Last year, he joined on remote, really lambasted the global elite.

781.512 - 800.787 Anne-Marie Horden

And at this point, potentially, we could get the decision next Tuesday or Wednesday, because that's when the justices will be meeting again. That's when potentially we can get the decision. And he could potentially be facing a Supreme Court saying you cannot use that legal authority while he's talking to all these countries that he already did trade deals with.

801.965 - 825.617 Deepak Pathak

Bloomberg's Anne-Marie Horden, thank you very much. Another top story. The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a bill allowing victims of sexually explicit AI images to sue the creators of that content. The move is in response to growing public anger after Bloomberg reported that Elon Musk's ex has become a top site for generating pictures of people who have been non-consensually undressed by AI.

825.998 - 850.416 Deepak Pathak

Musk posted on X that he wasn't aware of any naked, underage images generated by Grok, That's XAI's generative AI tool. Let's bring in Bloomberg's Emily Birnbaum, who covers corporate lobbying government. The Defiance Act confers on American citizens a civil right to sue. Take that information and give the rest of the details because that's the bit that's new here.

Chapter 4: What are the specific requirements for companies exporting AI chips to China?

1043.362 - 1055.278 Mike Shepard

Each morning, we're up early putting together the latest episode of Bloomberg Daybreak U.S. Edition. It's your daily 15-minute podcast on the latest in global news, politics, and international relations.

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1055.258 - 1061.759 Caroline Hyde

Listen to the Bloomberg Daybreak U.S. edition podcast each morning for the stories that matter with the context you need.

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1061.819 - 1065.471 Mike Shepard

Find us on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

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1073.129 - 1094.043 Deepak Pathak

I'm extremely excited, like Brian said, to bring craft to the art of deploying AI-first features and products. So I hope to be able to surprise the world with really beautiful features that they're going to love using every day. That was Airbnb's new CTO, Ahmad Aldale, weighing in on the short-term rental platform's AI efforts.

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1094.123 - 1106.747 Deepak Pathak

Let's get more with our own Latterly Lung, who spoke with Aldale and Airbnb CEO, Brian Chesky. I think an interesting way to start is what is Airbnb trying to solve for here by bringing in a new CTO? What is it they want to change about the platform?

1107.014 - 1128.229 Natalie Leung

So after a few years of sort of working on the plumbing of Airbnb's app, like revamping the app, they're ready to take it forward, adding AI across the app, including customer service, which they did last year. And now they're going to do more with search as well, like letting people discover listings and also cross-market some of the new services like tours and experiences going forward.

1128.209 - 1143.933 Deepak Pathak

And I think you sort of put that exact question to Brian Chesky himself. Let's just take a listen to how he responded as to why they're pivoting and focusing all in on AI at this moment. Take a listen. We are at the beginning of this incredibly exciting technological transformation with AI. It's going to be a journey.

1143.993 - 1164.628 Deepak Pathak

And I couldn't be more excited about Ahmed because he's one of the leading AI experts in the world, but he also brings a sense of craft to Airbnb, something we're really known for. And I think what you're going to see in Airbnb is not only AI search, but a very personalized AI experience where I think we're going to bring great design sensibility into the experience of Airbnb.

1165.739 - 1181.115 Deepak Pathak

Let's talk a little bit about how they're talking of the narrative of change because they've said farewell to the previous CTO who's there for about seven years and brought in this expert from Meta. So who do they say farewell to and why is this Meta executive the best placed?

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