Chapter 1: What is Kalshi and how does it relate to prediction markets?
The Kalshi thing, which is interesting, is it Kalshi or Kalshi?
Kalshi.
Kalshi is interesting because, you know, you had this streaker during the game, and then, you know, people say now how much, you know, if you could bet on a streaker or you could do a prediction market on a streaker, and now all of a sudden it's insider trading with this whole situation. Now you got, you know, Giannis involved with Kalshi.
So it's a very interesting thing, and I think eventually it's probably going to have to be regulated in some way because there's ways you can control this market and win money. As we have talked about with the shaving of points and things like that, And then there's investigations that go on, and there's flagged betting, and the FBI will get involved, and people get arrested.
There's none of that happening here with this of any sort of regulating body who is paying attention to these things with people fixing certain situations to make money.
And by the way, it's not just Kelshi. It's Polymark as well. And remember, we first brought polymarket to the discussion here around the presidential election because they had Donald Trump winning the election.
Yeah, well, most people were trading at that.
But the predictive market is what the people trading were basically deciding for everybody.
Yeah. Yeah, so the, let's see, Super Bowl streakers fortune explored after paying hefty price. So that was, you know, actually that was, no, that was this year. Yeah, I mean, it's a crazy situation and different and legal in 50 states.
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Chapter 2: Why is Giannis involved with Kalshi?
So Cal State is a prediction market. Mm-hmm. I mean, it's genius.
The people who came up with this and started this probably market. I mean, absolute geniuses. But, you know, the problem is you can control these things, and there's going to be people who are going to take advantage of this, and people are going to lose money over things because it's insider trading that goes on.
Right, so Calshi and Polymarket consider their transactions as like financial derivatives is what they are. And there's a lot of non-sports gaming here too as well. I don't know if you want to call it gaming. You know what I'm saying? They could do it in California and Texas, and I don't think California and Texas allows online gaming.
Yeah, I mean, like, here's another thing that's a problem. So you can do just about anything. You could put up just about anything on Kalshi or Polymarket. Meaning, like, if, you know, what are the odds that this guy does this or this person does that or there's going to be something that happens in this particular game? You know, there's...
Things on a sportsbook where, all right, here's over-under points, here's spreads, here's first quarter, and all these things that happen during a game. You know, with these predictive markets, it could be anything, anywhere that people are involved in.
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Chapter 3: What are the potential regulatory concerns surrounding prediction markets?
So, you know, when you see someone who is like a Kevin Durant who is sponsoring FanDuel, that's one thing. Because the NBA and all the leagues are in with the sportsbooks now. And they're not allowed to bet on their sports. They're not allowed to do any of these things. We've seen the NBA and the issues that they have had with Jaunte Porter and Chauncey Billups and everything else.
And it's not a great look. But if you're someone like Kevin Durant and said you want to bet on these games years ago, that would look crazy. But right now, we do commercials for them. But the thing about Giannis with Kelsey, though, is there could be something up there where he could control it. Yeah. Well, that's the thing.
I mean, you could control the prop bet too thing, but people are on to that. And there's regulating bodies in the FBI will come get you. Like Giannis could control something on here about Giannis getting traded or whatever it might be. He can have inside information on that. And then people could make millions and millions off of it because he knows and he's now sitting there as a sponsor.
Or what about his agent? What about the... The tentacles within the agency that is representing him, there's a million ways of doing that. Now, FanDuel also, as we often say, at the end of every one of our live reads, you've got to be 21 and older. For a calcium poly market, you only have to be 18.
It doesn't feel like this is going to be the Wild West for a long time. You know what I mean? At some point, someone's going to have to come in and regulate this.
And FanDuel and those... those betting platforms take a big and I, where calcium poly market make their money, you know, they're, they're taking, I think they're taking their money from transaction fees and which are usually lower than, you know, you know, the Vandal and the DraftKings, big aspect of it.
Right, so you're not, you're betting, well, I'm going to use the word betting because I feel like that's what it is.
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Chapter 4: How do Kalshi and Polymarket differ from traditional gambling?
You're betting against each other. You're not betting against a house. A house, exactly. So it's people that are saying yes.
It's kind of like the stock market.
Right, yeah. That's what it is. That's really what's going on here. But they do take a portion of each one of the trades. And that's how they make their money. But like if it's a yes or no, like here's one. Will Trump say bad bunny this month? Yes, 64%. No, 36%, right? And it just changed when I said that 63 to 37.
Well, one is a financial exchange company and the other one is basically a bookmaking company.
Right. So like if I click yes... and I lose, you know, my money's not going to Kalshi, it's going to someone who said no. However, there's a piece of me trading that is going to Kalshi. Yes. And that's how they're making their money.
And if they can get all 50 states 18 and older... That's a pretty big market. Oh, yeah.
I mean, it's huge right now. Absolutely huge. You know, something like this, like who will attend the big game, Jason Kelsey or Zendaya, you know? I mean, there's $36,000 that's being traded on this right now. I mean, that's obviously over now because the game was last night. But these are things that you could totally have inside information on.
Let me ask you a question. Does Calci have a finality to the actual things people are trading on? In other words, do they give you a list of the things that if you bet yes or predicted yes that you've won? Or is that just ā I don't know how the payout works. I'm assuming that it works out ā In their accounts? Yeah. I mean, you're talking about the timing of it, like when that happens?
Yeah, so here we are. We're after the Super Bowl, and all the Super Bowl prop predicting is what I'm going to call it, as opposed to prop betting. Yeah. Prop predicting. Sure. So you know whatever you bet on pre-Super Bowl that has happened.
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Chapter 5: What types of events can be predicted on Kalshi?
We know what the answer is. So I'm assuming that do they list ā Or you would know, I guess, if you're in the market yourself and you're predicting this, then you would end up having the money in your account.
Yeah. I mean, that's probably what it is. I mean, I have not traded on one of these yet, but I'm sure it's similar to, you know, with these apps and the websites. When you buy something, there will be a tab that has, you know, once you log in and have an account of the things that you have traded on, you see how it's going.
I got to believe that they're ā no, listen. You know, these politicians, everybody wants their hands in something. So you got to believe that there is going to be some sort of legislation somewhere along the line going after these two. And I'm sure there's other ones as well.
Oh, of course. I mean, there has to be. So, I mean, there was so much red tape that FanDuel had to go through to get involved in every state, especially here in New York. And New York takes the largest cut, 51% out of any state that is out there.
Yeah, so the state gets a big two.
So, like, and this is one of those things where now, because it's the Wild West right now, no one's really paying attention to it because it's so new. No, people are paying attention to it with me. Well, I mean, they're paying attention to it, but they haven't come up with regulations yet.
But how about if you're FanDuel or you're DraftKings or any one of those other online sports betting platforms, you know you've got to be lobbying somebody about getting a handle on this. See, I would not... Because it's all, this is business. This is like, they're similar.
Yeah, but see, I would not be lobbying to shut them down. I'd be making my own prediction market if I were FanDuel or DraftKings. That's what I'd be doing because this isn't going anywhere. You know, why waste your money in trying to shut them down? Just start your own and with your own brand and then connect all your accounts together. So now I've got a prediction.
I've got a FanDuel prediction market. I've got FanDuel Sportsbook. I've got FanDuel Fantasy. It's one login for all of it. You know, that's what I'd be doing. And that's probably the next ā that's probably what they're working on right now, I would imagine.
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