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Breakfast Business with Joe Lynam 7 min 2 speakers 2 chapters transcribed
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What are the main business headlines for today?

Joe Lynam 0:01
Breakfast Business with Enterprise Ireland on Newstalk. Good morning and welcome to Breakfast Business and thank you to Eamon Torsney. It is Monday the 6th of October at 6.31. Happy World Architecture Day. Coming up on today's show we'll be talking to the boss of the Foresight Group about private equity investment and we'll be looking at new changes in our current accounts and all the markets as usual. You can email us business at newstalk.com. But first, let's have a look at the main business stories in the newspapers and websites, which we shall do in the tip top company of Leona McCann from Irish Life Investment, Irish Life Investment Management. Good morning, Leona. Morning, Joe. Hope you had a nice weekend.
Joe Lynam 0:42
A lovely weekend. Not too windy, I hope. Now, tomorrow is Budget Day. What should we be looking out for and what will the markets be especially looking out for?
Leonie McCann 0:52
Yes, so Budget 2026 is to be announced tomorrow. What we know so far or what's been alluded to is that it should be a £9.4 billion budget package. About £7.9 billion will be in spending and about £1.5 billion in tax cuts. So the rumours so far are that we will see a VAT cut coming through for the hospitality sector.
Joe Lynam 1:12
Very controversial.
Leonie McCann 1:13
Very controversial, but a sector that's been struggling and lobbying hard for it. So it's expected that VAT will be reduced from 13.5% to 9%, and the estimated costs to that are 870 million. So far, we're not expecting any income tax packages. The relatively small budget tax package of 1.5 billion doesn't leave a lot of room for any income tax or USC changes.
Joe Lynam 1:35
And the VAT cut is included in that 1.5 billion?
Yes.
Leonie McCann 1:37
Exactly. And then elsewhere, they are expecting, well, there's a proposal that's not been agreed to reduce the VAT on the sale of new apartments. That's under consideration, but not yet agreed. There's also talk about potentially extending the reduced rate of VAT on energy bills, which is due to expire at the end of October. Now, all in all, it is expected that this will be a much more measured package. That is generous. Exactly. So I don't think you're going to see the same level of shorter term cost of living measures and instead really focusing on longer term resilience. And one thing the government have actually come out to say is they're really going to be a bit more focused on and targeted on areas that the needs are greater.
Leonie McCann 2:17
So there are talks about as well expecting an increase in core welfare payments as well. And indeed, the government have addressed that they're looking to address child poverty in this year's budget. One idea is a rise in the working family payment, according to some reports. The other thing I think we'll see a focus on, this is in addition to the National Development Plan that was announced earlier this year, is that likely to see infrastructure spending as well.
Joe Lynam 2:40
I think that's going to be a very big one, actually. There's going to be a lot of money announced for spending, whether it will be spent next year or not, especially huge projects like Metrolink remains to be seen. Now, the US shutdown continues. It's now almost, is it a week now? It is a week.
Leonie McCann 2:57
Just about.

What should we expect from Budget 2026?

Leonie McCann 2:57
Yeah. So maybe just for context, the US fiscal year runs from the 1st of October. It starts on the 1st of October. And ahead of that, the US government looks to... agree a funding bill to fund the government for the next year. And what's happened is that Republicans and Democrats haven't been able to agree that bill. Hence, you've got this shutdown. Now, shutdowns aren't a rarity in the US. We have seen them before. If you go back to the mid 1970s, there's been about 20 US shutdowns. This is the first one that were nearly seven years, so it might feel newer. It's actually the third one under Trump that we've seen. So they are things that we have seen before. So what happens in a shutdown is that you get most of the government agencies being shut down.
Leonie McCann 3:37
There's no funding essentially for them during that period. What stays open? So things like mandatory programs, so things like Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid, as well as the Mail Service and the Fed, which are self-funding, so they're not impacted by this.

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