Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Breakfast Business with Enterprise Ireland on Newstalk.
Good morning. You're listening to Breakfast Business with Susan Hayes-Cullerton in for Joe Lynham today. And coming up this morning, we will be talking promotional pricing because, of course, it is Cyber Monday. European top 30 business school rankings and all of your market news. Now, I do hope that you're settling well and happy into this week.
I was actually in Liscannor myself for the weekend and you know, there is really something about the fresh air, the ruggedness of the Cliffs of Moher, the music, the food and of course, the people of North Clare. So, I hope you had a weekend where you have that topped up feeling as you head into the week and if not, well, I'm right here beside you to ease you into the first week of December. So,
Let's get straight into it and look at some of the stories in the paper this morning and indeed of the things that happened over the weekend with Russ Mould from AJ Bell. Good morning, Russ.
Morning to you, Susan. Hope you're well. Sound as if you are.
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Chapter 2: What business news is highlighted for Cyber Monday?
I am indeed. Thank you. Well, we'll start off, first of all, with a pretty decisive answer to the referendum in Switzerland yesterday, which had a proposal to impose a 50% inheritance tax levy on estates and transfers over 50 million Swiss francs. That works out about roughly 53 million euro. What happened in Switzerland?
So this was a proposal from the Social Democrats, left-leaning, to basically set up a climate change fund using inheritance tax on some of Switzerland's well-heeled residents. And the Swiss voted 78% to say thank you, but no thank you.
So I guess what they've done there is prioritise what Switzerland is famous for, which is a haven for indeed the well-heeled, because that's ultimately where the country has made its money for pretty much time immemorial.
But you do say the well-heeled residents. I mean, the reality is here, this wasn't about necessarily only taxing people who live there, but the opportunity cost, if I could take that economic term, about people who wouldn't move there if such a deal had been or such a proposal had been accepted.
Correct. And this is one of the reasons why, again, it gets back to what Switzerland has perceived as a haven.
It's one of the reasons why the Swiss franc is probably the world's strongest currency, why the economy is pretty stable, and why times of duress or even just times of governments rattling down the back of the sofa for cash, as a lot of them are right now, people tend to head to Switzerland. And in the end, this comes back to Walter Wriston's law of capital.
Former chairman of Citibank, money goes where it feels welcome and well cared for. Capital goes, and that includes people and ideas as well as money. And generally, low taxes attract capital, higher taxes, not so much.
But it's not like this agreement or the result was decisive, but the discussion wasn't necessarily. I mean, 43% of the population came out to vote on this. It was contentious, wasn't it? I mean, this wasn't easily decided, right?
No, and there'll be all of your listeners absolutely tearing their hair out thinking that, you know, again, there's been a short-term prioritization of capital over climate change. And a lot of very, very frustrated people in Switzerland and beyond. Of that, there is absolutely no doubt at all.
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Chapter 3: What was the outcome of the Swiss inheritance tax referendum?
And then, of course, the third one would be the massive spending that's on AI. And we are wondering when the returns are going to be there. All the same, all the same, those three points are relatively temporary. So what's your thoughts now on the European stock market looking ahead?
Again, given that you've had a good run this year, the valuations aren't as attractive as they were. Europe's probably trading broadly in line with some of its long-term averages now. But when stock markets get going, they tend to trade well above that. So if things continue to go well, there's nothing to stop Europe going ahead.
Equally, there are questions being asked about global economic growth. And if the U.S. is starting to slow down, as some suggest, then that may exert a bigger gravitational force than Germany. Would I want to bet against U.S. exception as well for the very long term? No, because the last 100-odd years tell us that's a pretty brave bet to take on.
But equally, when valuations are as lofty as they are, you can see why investors are looking for other options, and emerging markets have come back into fashion this year as well. Everybody wrote off Hong Kong and China a year ago. There was even an article in the Financial Times called them uninvestable. And lo and behold, they've had a good year again.
Valuations low, expectations low, doesn't take much to persuade people to give things a fresh look.
Well, in fairness, going back to the point you made there about Warren Buffett, I mean, he would always say is that when you hear things like uninvestable or when people are throwing in the towel, that's often the time at which to consider them.
If we take a look, though, at the ranking, so right up the top, among some African constituents as well, but we have Hungary, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Spain, Poland, Austria. Now, I do want to talk about Germany, though. You've already referred to it opening up its pockets, particularly spending on defence, but also it's It's spending on the economy more broadly.
The German stock market is up 20% in euro terms, but 34% in dollar terms. So the fact that the euro has strengthened this year has been a boost from that perspective. But of course, Germany is a big exporter. And as it exports into the US, a weakening dollar doesn't help it.
No, so these things, again, go around in circles.
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