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Chapter 1: What are the latest developments in Keir Starmer's premiership?
Good morning, everybody. Morning. So, yeah, as we can see there on The Observer and all the other newspapers, Britain is having the biggest rush of blood to the head we've seen in recent years. And the bar there is fairly high because it's a country that's had a lot of Russia bloods to the head in the last 10 years. So things seem to be moving quite quickly around Keir Starmer's premiership.
Mark Paul, London correspondent at the Irish Times. Good morning.
Good morning, Brandon.
So what's the latest? What's happening?
Well, the latest is that it seems that Keir Starmer is at least contemplating resigning, possibly as soon as tomorrow. Peter Kyle, his business secretary, a senior member of the cabinet and somebody who has been loyal to him all the way through, although he is Wes Streeting's best friend.
But he did the morning round of television interviews this morning and he basically said he confirmed that the prime minister was considering resigning. He said flat out that Andy Burnham would be one of the contenders to replace him.
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Chapter 2: Who are the potential successors to Keir Starmer?
And he was given two opportunities to deny that Keir Starmer would resign tomorrow. And he didn't. He didn't deny that. So it seems we may well be entering the final 24 or 36 hours of Keir Starmer's premiership.
You said the final there. You nearly said death throes, didn't you? Is there any is there anyone defending Keir Starmer's premiership or saying he should stay on publicly at the moment in the Labour Party?
Look, there are a couple of people who are still loyal to him. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, has remained loyal to him all the way through. Lord Hermer, his Attorney General, has remained loyal. But, you know, Harriet Harman is a Labour Party grandie and she was appointed to a job by Keir Starmer just a month ago.
And she said a couple of days ago, this is somebody who just got a job from Keir Starmer. She said a couple of days ago, the herd isn't just moving, it is stampeding. So I think there's a general realisation across the Labour Party that Keir Starmer's time is up, that perhaps this is Andy Burnham's time, and they're all prepared to move on. Yeah.
Chapter 3: What is the current state of support for Keir Starmer within the Labour Party?
And of course, Rachel Reeves, like being one of the people standing with him, she gets defenestrated with him, basically, doesn't she? If he's gone, if Keir Starmer's gone, she's going to be gone. So that's probably her angle on it. So at the moment, we're told that he is holed up with his wife in Chequers. She seems to be the kind of last woman standing and his closest advisor right now.
Is that right?
Yeah.
That's right. I mean, Keir Starmer has always spoken that, you know, he takes his closest advice from his wife, Victoria Starmer. And, you know, she doesn't have a big public profile in the sense that she doesn't do many interviews and she's not very outspoken in the media or publicly, but she's always been by Keir Starmer's side and he's always spoken about how much he relies on her.
And I think when he went to Chequers for the weekend, I mean, that is a place where UK prime ministers go to think and to think things over and it's quiet. It's out in the countryside, you know, surrounded by fields and lots and lots
of police as well I've been up there a couple of times that's where Simon Harris met him but it's like an old country estate and I guess Keir Starmer went there to mull things over and it seems he's reached a conclusion that he can't go on So how do you think the week will pan out Mark?
Well, I think if, as seems likely, Keir Starmer resigns tomorrow, he will probably set out some sort of a timetable for his departure. If he decides, now it would be a surprise if he resigns immediately.
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Chapter 4: How does Andy Burnham's leadership style differ from Starmer's?
If he does resign immediately, Labour Party's National Executive Committee and the Cabinet would put an interim prime minister in place. They would just pick somebody. But if he sets out a timetable, then the question is whether or not there is some sort of a contest. But I think anybody who goes up against Andy Burnham at this stage is probably going to lose.
So I would imagine next week, if you're asking me to don my Mystic Meg hat, I think there'll probably be some sort of a deal done between Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting for a job for Wes Streeting. And I think there'll be a timetable announced and Keir Starmer will either go before the summer recess on July 17th or he'll go in September.
OK. Burnham is not actually in a hurry, is he? He wants time to get his ducks in a row, does he?
Exactly. I mean, he doesn't have a programme for government yet. He's technically still bound by Labour's manifesto in an election that he didn't even run in. He hasn't been in Westminster since 2017. He hasn't been in Cabinet for over a decade. He doesn't know most of the 24 intake of new MPs.
Chapter 5: What challenges does Andy Burnham face as a potential leader?
He has to get to know them. And he has to put together a team. He has to put together advisors. Obviously, he has he has some of this lined up. But I mean, you know, he's going to take over the steering wheel of a car that isn't exactly motoring down the center of the road or center of the lane. And it's all over the place. He needs to steady it.
And it's going to take him a little bit of time, I think, to come up with a plan to do that.
OK, Mark, do you need to go or will you stay with us for a minute while we discuss this?
No, I can stay with you. Go ahead.
OK, Brenda, they have a new saviour in Britain.
Yes.
The answer to all their problems.
I know.
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Chapter 6: How have recent political events affected public trust in the Labour Party?
I'm just reading Shane Ross's piece in the Sunday Independent today saying, like, this guy is not... You know, Superman.
And he is, according to some party sources, actually may not even be premiership, but that it does appear this is going to be a coronation, which they want, because the fear is that if he is in any way required to state his actual objective, give the details of how he's going to turn the ship around. that he's not going to be able to do that.
That's like a flawed logic, that he might be exposed in a competition, so instead we'll make him the Prime Minister.
Yes, and then find out that he's incompetent. This will be the seventh Prime Minister in the last 10 years in the UK. So, you know, no pressure on him, obviously. He knows he'll be gone within... a year or two if this doesn't work out. Apparently, poor Starmer is taking counsel from Victoria in Chequers, but there's a fear that he may be listening to Morgan McSweeney.
Yes, that Morgan McSweeney is secretly. Yes, according to one source. Please God, he's listening to Vic and not Morgan.
yeah would any wife can I I'll just ask the ladies this now not to be sexist would any wife be telling their husband you go back in there tomorrow and you show them who's boss and you continue this Jill Biden yeah okay good point good point um
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Chapter 7: What impact has Brexit had on the Labour Party's political landscape?
Doneg, you've been reading all this stuff. The Observer seemed to be the ones who were kind of leading the pack on the story. And it's their story is being quoted a lot elsewhere. So you read a lot of the stuff from the Observer. So what jumps out?
That's right. I wouldn't normally get the Observer, but it was clear that they had a head start on this. Their headline is, they think it's all over. And then their sub-headline, Storm are expected to announce resignation tomorrow morning. and plan an orderly exit. And as Mark Paul said, then it's only a matter of when he'll go rather than if he'll go.
As Brenda said, I mean, it's the seventh prime minister since Brexit. And of course, Brexit is a logical starting point for all of this. And it shows that, you know, chaos, internal chaos is not a Tory monopoly, that it also is something within the Labour Party. You mentioned Shane Ross's piece.
Chapter 8: What are the implications of changing leadership for Labour's future?
He hits on something, and of course it's also in the Observer pieces, indeed throughout the papers, is that despite the fact that it's obvious that Starmer is unpopular and that Andy Burnham has this charisma, there's still a lot we don't know about Andy Burnham. I mean, there's a headline there about who is the real Andy Burnham.
There's actually a joke that's been doing the rounds for years in the House of Commons that a Blairite, a Brownite and a Corbynite go into a pub and the barman says, what will you be having, Andy? Because Andy could be any of them. Andy has served under Tony Blair, under Gordon Brown, under Jeremy Corbyn. He has run for the leadership twice before. He has run for the leadership twice.
He lost out to Jeremy Corbyn. He has been a minister, yeah.
So it's not like some kind of disruptor coming out of nowhere.
And Keir Starmer previously backed him for the leadership as well. Did he?
Yeah. So it's strange that he seems, on the one hand, he's been around for a quarter century. And yet at the same time, there's so many things that we don't know about him. And as Brenda says, he's been out of Westminster. Or no, it was Mark Ball that said that he's been out of Westminster politics for a decade. He's known as the King of the North.
He would be the first, I think, prime minister since Harold Wilson, who's kind of very strongly from the North, represents that. And he's very proud of that aspect. In fact, he also is maybe the antithesis of Nigel Farage. And that's one of the reasons why he's popular in Labour, because he's seen to be the guy who could perhaps beat Nigel Farage.
He says that even though, of course, he was born in England and is from England, he considers himself British first, Northwestern second, Liverpudlian third, and English only fourth. And he attributes some of that to his Irish heritage.
It's interesting that Micheál Martin said during the EU summit in Brussels when he was asked about the by-election victory, he said that Burnham had a particular interest in Ireland. But also interesting that by-election, I mean, reform stomped home just last month in that very same constituency. And the Labour vote with Andy Burnham rose by 28%. So Labour...
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