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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk. With Aviva Insurance. We're constantly being told that AI is going to change the way we live, the way we work, the way we play. We're also told that we all need to adapt to AI and use it or we will miss the boat. But my next guest says that before we buy into any predictions, we need to stop and ask, who's telling us this and what are they selling?
Let's find out more from philosopher, author and Oxford professor Carissa Veilies, who has recently published her new book, Prophecy. Carissa, you're so welcome to the programme. Thank you so much for having me. So if we're told that something like AI is going to define us and change us and become intrinsic to all of our lives, you argue that that in itself becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Chapter 2: How is AI predicted to change our lives?
Yes, predictions about the social world act like magnets. They tend to bend reality towards themselves. And so the first thing to note is that no prediction is ever a fact. It can be at best an educated guess, but more often than not, it's a power play in disguise.
And instead of just accepting it as a fact and obeying and making the prediction become a self-fulfilling prophecy, maybe we should stop for a second. And if we don't like the prediction that we're listening to, we should defy it.
So in particular, do you say that that's happening with AI?
Yes, it's a fundamental tool of Silicon Valley that they sell us a vision of the future. And they sell it not as a hypothesis or a possibility, but that is inevitable. They tell us that that is progress and that's what it looks like and there's nothing to do about it. And that's a very authoritarian tactic.
Chapter 3: What questions should we ask about predictions?
We've seen it before in authoritarian regimes, but that it's being used by companies is no different, particularly companies that are so powerful. And part of the duty of citizens in a democracy is to question that and to say, well, is that the future that we want? And if not, what are we going to do to build the future that we want to live in?
Well, tell us a little bit about the lessons that we have learned from history, because I suspect that you believe that predictions have always been a bit of a con man's charter.
Yes, and it's fascinating that even though there are thousands of books and even academic journals on prediction, there wasn't even one book on the ethics of prediction, on what kinds of predictions maybe we shouldn't do. And one of the lessons is that next to leaders, you always find a profit.
And even though the technology of AI is very different from, say, astrology or the Oracle of Delphi, the political role that they play is actually quite similar. And if you would have interviewed a medieval European and asked them about astrology, they would have said something like, well, it's a very technical discipline. It's very hard to understand. It's very opaque.
And it's a cutting edge decision making method. That's exactly what we say about AI today.
But what does it say about us as human beings that we so desperately want and have always desperately wanted to know what's going to happen into the future?
Well, it's nerve wracking to be a human being. We're in a way too smart because we know of everything that can go wrong and we want to avoid bad things from happening. And we get the illusion that if we can see around the corner, that will make us safer and that it will give us a competitive advantage.
The trap is that that assumes that there's a script to be discovered, but the future is unwritten. And in fact, it's unpredictable. And not to be aware of that perversely makes us more unsafe.
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Chapter 4: How do predictions act as self-fulfilling prophecies?
But I mean, going back again to the self-fulfilling prophecy, if a fortune teller tells you that you're going to have a happy marriage to a fair haired man, there's a risk that you're going to turn down the perfectly suitable dark haired man.
Exactly. Predictions change our expectations about the world if we believe them. But we have the power to question them. So if Oedipus had laughed off the prediction that he would marry his mother and murder his father instead of getting scared and trying to run away from it, he wouldn't have made the prediction come true.
Tell me a little bit more about that theory, because you talk about power being in our hands when we ignore predictions. But when predictions are taken seriously, it becomes more about the power of the person making the prediction rather than the knowledge that they have.
Exactly. So when a tech executive says that we will use his product tomorrow everywhere and for everything, and if you don't, you're going to fall behind the curve, what they're trying to do is to instill in you the fear of missing out so that you will go out and buy that product and fulfill their vision of the future, which also happens to line their pockets. And instead...
We should realize that no, that the future is unwritten, that nobody knows what it holds, that it's partly up to us to build it. And that uncertainty is actually very good news, because even though it can be nerve wracking, it also means that we have the power to change the future.
Because if you knew exactly where you would be tomorrow and every day after that, it would mean that you lived in a police state.
We also have to make the distinction, don't we, Carissa, between those who are set to benefit financially from these predictions and those who are experts, who have studied a field and are using data analysis to predict certain outcomes.
Yes, and maybe even a more important distinction is predictions about things and predictions about the social world. Because if I make a prediction about a molecule, it's not going to change the molecule. But if I make a prediction about a human being, even if I have good intentions, there's a very high likelihood that it will affect that human being.
So even, for example, predictions by economists with good intentions can shape the future dramatically. And therefore, we should be much more careful and we need a public debate about what are the rules of who gets to make these predictions and when maybe we shouldn't predict something, even if we could.
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Chapter 5: What historical lessons can we learn about predictions?
So we should do like Joe Frazier. And when we listen to a prediction about the social world that is against our interest, instead of taking it as a fact and accepting it, we should take it as an invitation for defiance.
Very interesting theory. Thank you so much, Carissa Valise there on her new book, which is out now. It's called Prophecy.