Can anyone really understand Trump’s strategy on Iran?
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The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk with Aviva Insurance.
Well, President Donald Trump cancelled strikes on Iran overnight. This was after a day in which he promised to seize Karg Island and promised third day of attacks on the country. America, said Pete Hemsworth, was going to be negotiating with Britain. bombs. The reason for cancelling the strikes? Well, he said a peace deal was close. Fahwes Gerges is Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science and he joins me now. You're very welcome to the programme, Fawez, there's a really interesting timeline on the BBC website of all of the statements that Trump has made in relation to a deal with Iran.
What are the latest developments in Trump's strategy on Iran?
On the 20th of April, he said it would happen relatively quickly. On the 6th of May, he said the war will be over quickly. On the 23rd of May, he said the deal was largely negotiated. On the 28th of May, Vice President J.D. Vance said it was very close. And on the 29th, he said there was a final determination to be made. So do we believe in this time? More bluster? Closer? Part of a strategy? You know, 40 times CNN counted that the president and the vice president have made statements about imminent breakthrough four times in the past three months. So my first instinct is to say we have to be cautious. We have to be careful. But what we have seen in the past 48 hours is that a flurry of reports in the U.S.
media and international media that a memorandum of understanding is almost, almost finalized. And I think the reason why there is something happening because the first time that the Iranian media have spoken about progress, even though the Iranian media says that it's not finalized, But there is a kind of a general understanding on the broad contours of what the memorandum of understanding will include. Remember, this is a memorandum of understanding. It's not a final solution. But the final peace treaty or peace settlement will take at least 60 days to negotiate between Iran and the United States if and when The memorandum of understanding is signed. So I think there's a bit of light at the end of the tunnel.
And I think we are seeing de-escalation as opposed to escalation as we have seen in the past few days. Do you think in previous cases where he has said this deal is so close and you cited CNN saying it's happened nearly 40 times from his administration, that there was a strategy there, there was an idea we need to calm the economy, we need to calm the markets here? Well, I don't think President Trump ever thinks strategically, with all due respect to President Trump. I don't think he's a strategist. I think he's temperamental, he's chaotic, he improvises on the go. But I think what he was trying and what he's trying to do is to reassure the world economy and the American economy and the energy industry, because he's in a very strategic bind.
The war is very, very unpopular in the United States. More than 60% of Americans say that the war should not have taken place. Inflation now, the annual inflation is 4.2.
How has Trump's rhetoric changed regarding the Iran deal?
Before the war, it was 3.2. I mean, Americans really care a great deal about their pocketbook like most of us in the world. So I think he was trying to reassure the American electorate and also tried to bring down the costs of energy. But at the end of the day, it seems to me that Iran thinks that it has leveraged. Iran has prolonged President Trump's strategic predicament and pains. So really, in a way, regardless of what happens, I think Iran will most likely emerge as with more strategic gains as opposed to President Trump. I think the question for President Trump is that how much he has to cut his losses. And I think that's the question, the critical question that he had not been able to really accept.
You mentioned Iran's foreign ministry making sort of more positive statements about this memorandum, this text and saying, yes, the majority of it has been finalised. But they did go on to say that the US has made excessive demands and has added some new requests.
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