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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk with Aviva Insurance.
Well, President Donald Trump cancelled strikes on Iran overnight. This was after a day in which he promised to seize Karg Island and promised third day of attacks on the country. America, said Pete Hemsworth, was going to be negotiating with Britain. bombs. The reason for cancelling the strikes? Well, he said a peace deal was close.
Fahwes Gerges is Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science and he joins me now. You're very welcome to the programme, Fawez, there's a really interesting timeline on the BBC website of all of the statements that Trump has made in relation to a deal with Iran.
Chapter 2: What are the latest developments in Trump's strategy on Iran?
On the 20th of April, he said it would happen relatively quickly. On the 6th of May, he said the war will be over quickly. On the 23rd of May, he said the deal was largely negotiated. On the 28th of May, Vice President J.D. Vance said it was very close. And on the 29th, he said there was a final determination to be made. So do we believe in this time? More bluster? Closer? Part of a strategy?
You know, 40 times CNN counted that the president and the vice president have made statements about imminent breakthrough four times in the past three months. So my first instinct is to say we have to be cautious. We have to be careful. But what we have seen in the past 48 hours is that a flurry of reports in the U.S.
media and international media that a memorandum of understanding is almost, almost finalized. And I think the reason why there is something happening because the first time that the Iranian media have spoken about progress, even though the Iranian media says that it's not finalized,
But there is a kind of a general understanding on the broad contours of what the memorandum of understanding will include. Remember, this is a memorandum of understanding. It's not a final solution. But the final peace treaty or peace settlement will take at least 60 days to negotiate between Iran and the United States if and when The memorandum of understanding is signed.
So I think there's a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. And I think we are seeing de-escalation as opposed to escalation as we have seen in the past few days.
Do you think in previous cases where he has said this deal is so close and you cited CNN saying it's happened nearly 40 times from his administration, that there was a strategy there, there was an idea we need to calm the economy, we need to calm the markets here? Well, I don't think President Trump ever thinks strategically, with all due respect to President Trump.
I don't think he's a strategist. I think he's temperamental, he's chaotic, he improvises on the go. But I think what he was trying and what he's trying to do is to reassure the world economy and the American economy and the energy industry, because he's in a very strategic bind. The war is very, very unpopular in the United States.
More than 60% of Americans say that the war should not have taken place. Inflation now, the annual inflation is 4.2.
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Chapter 3: How has Trump's rhetoric changed regarding the Iran deal?
Before the war, it was 3.2. I mean, Americans really care a great deal about their pocketbook like most of us in the world. So I think he was trying to reassure the American electorate and also tried to bring down the costs of energy. But at the end of the day, it seems to me that Iran thinks that it has leveraged. Iran has prolonged President Trump's strategic predicament and pains.
So really, in a way, regardless of what happens, I think Iran will most likely emerge as with more strategic gains as opposed to President Trump. I think the question for President Trump is that how much he has to cut his losses. And I think that's the question, the critical question that he had not been able to really accept.
You mentioned Iran's foreign ministry making sort of more positive statements about this memorandum, this text and saying, yes, the majority of it has been finalised. But they did go on to say that the US has made excessive demands and has added some new requests. Do you have any sense of what those new requests are?
You know, I think for our listeners, we need to caution our listeners because both sides are trying to really basically score political points, right? I mean, both Iran and the United States would like to say they have won. And I think that's what you're going to hear if and when the memorandum of understanding is signed. But the reality is, I think the big point for Iran is
is to end the war, is a lasting end to the war, is to force the United States to unfreeze its frozen assets. Iran has about $21 or $24 billion in frozen assets. And also lift the sanctions and lift America's blockade of Iranian ports. And also importantly is to end the war on all fronts, I'm not convinced at all that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will agree to end his war in Lebanon.
So, again, there are many contentious points. And there is no clarity. And all we could say at this point is that some progress has been made, but the memorandum of understanding is not finalized. And as we know, historically, the devil lies in the details. So we really have to be careful about making any generalizing about what the memorandum of understanding will include or will not include.
But is it your sense at this point, Fawaz, that if there is a deal being finalised here, really what it will amount to is a ceasefire, a reopening of the Strait, perhaps not freezing up some of those assets and the sanctions that you spoke about there, but that any negotiations on the nuclear programme, they'll just be kicked down the road? Absolutely. And that's the biggest win for Iran.
Because, I mean, you will see in the next few days if the agreement is signed, Many Americans will say to President Trump, why did you trigger this war in the first place? Because you're going back to the pre-war status quo. Iran was negotiating with the United States, and the United States and Israel attacked Iran twice while Iran was making concessions on its nuclear program.
And I think what you see is that Iran has insisted that any discussion on its nuclear program will have to really await the end of the American blockade on its ports, and also the unfreezing of some of its assets by the United States.
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Chapter 4: What evidence suggests a peace deal with Iran is close?
And this is a major, major political and symbolic win for Iran. Just very briefly for Wes, if something doesn't materialise this time round, what can we expect to see next? Well, I think what we're going to expect next is basically the beginning of of a serious negotiation process between Iran and the United States. And again, very complex, very difficult, very painful.
But I think Iran insists on a Security Council resolution. Iran wants China to be involved in any kind of international guarantees because the Iranian leadership does not really trust President Trump. They have no trust whatsoever in the American leadership.
So I think also the G7 Europe could also be involved in providing guarantees for Iran, because remember, Iran will have to make painful concessions. on its nuclear program in the next 60 days if the agreement is signed. So all in all, I think we have a very prolonged, very complex, very difficult process, and it could implode. And as we know from Iran, Iran basically plays for time.
Iran has mastered the art of really basically dragging its feet And they know their game very well. The question is, will President Trump have the will and the patience to really go through this kind of difficult negotiations with Iran? Final point, the 2015 nuclear deal between the United States and Iran took two years, almost two years. to basically conclude, to finalise.
So you can imagine now how complex the process of negotiating an agreement on Iran's nuclear deal will be. 60 days? Well, it could be probably, you know, quite a few months, if not 60 months. And potentially how hostile both sides will be around the negotiations this time. Fawaz Rajez, thank you so much for taking the time to speak to us on The Clare Byrne Show today and bringing us that update.
The Clare Byrne Show. With Aviva Insurance. Weekday mornings at 9. On Newstalk. Conversation that counts.
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