Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk. With Aviva Insurance.
The ceasefire deadline between the United States and Iran is quickly approaching. There's no official end time which has been confirmed. The timing two weeks ago meant that it should end at 1am on Wednesday and we know the US Vice President J.D.
Vance is reported to be flying to Islamabad at the head of the US diplomatic delegation today if Iran agrees to further talks in the Pakistani capital as that deadline looms. So with the clock ticking, is there Today, Tehran and Washington's last chance to avoid further escalation.
Chapter 2: What is the current status of the ceasefire deadline between the US and Iran?
Well, I'm joined by Tara Kangaloo, who's global affairs journalist and author of The Heartbeat of Iran, and Cormac McGarry, who's director for Maritime Security Services at Control Risks. So, Tara, the latest we see is that J.D. Vance is expected to travel, but we don't know at this stage whether Iranians will be there to meet him or to meet the U.S. delegation. What is the latest on these talks?
Yes, of course. Well, first of all, we don't know. There's a lot of speculation as to whether J.D. Vance is going or not. I don't think we have any confirmation as to projecting that he's on the route. We still don't know. Some are reporting that he is. Some are reporting that he's not. As far as the Iranians, though, they have not confirmed that any delegation has set off for Islamabad.
I do know that security in Islamabad has doubled since the last round of talks a few weeks ago. And so the Pakistanis are very much waiting for both sides to arrive in Islamabad. However, the Iranians have said we're not coming because for them, the issue of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is something that is non-negotiable, it seems. Their vessel came under attack yesterday.
Not yesterday, but the day before. And so they put the United States to show some sign of goodwill because their bottom line is that we don't trust the U.S. And every time we came to the negotiating table, we got attacked. So I think this is a great opportunity for the U.S. President Donald Trump to show some goodwill. and tell the Iranians that he's serious.
And I think if he shows just an inch of leniency, the Iranians will most certainly come to the negotiating table because they cannot afford to continue this war. In fact, neither side can afford to continue this war.
The blockade it's reported is costing 500 million a day for Iran. Now, I don't have confirmation of that figure. That may be a U.S. figure to show what they wield over the Iranians. But I see the London Times reporting this morning that that Iran is believed to have given the green light to negotiations after all of this confusion, Tara.
But the problem in Iran is that there are hardliners now who are putting real pressure on the leadership to continue with the conflict and not to engage in diplomacy.
Definitely.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of J.D. Vance's potential visit to Islamabad?
I mean, some of the people that are making up the leadership right now are precisely those who did not want to engage back in 2015 with the US when it came to the JCPOA and the nuclear deal that conveniently Donald Trump tore apart in 2018. And so that's the challenge. Anytime you attack any country... you are at the risk of emboldening the most hardline factions of that country and society.
And that's precisely what has happened. Now, the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Barak Balibov, who headed the delegation, He himself is an IRGC official, along with him as part of the delegation. We had multiple IRGC Revolutionary Guard officials. So there is a sense that he's trying to convince the hardliners in Iran as to why they should engage with the U.S.
Also, his conversation with the domestic audience Sunday morning was quite telling. You know, we are fighting against an extremely powerful military. We've put up a good fight, but we cannot continue like this. And I found that fascinating that he took that line, essentially arguing as to why engagement might be the way forward.
Tara, thank you very much for that update. And we come now to Cormac McGarry from Maritime Security Services at Control Risks. Cormac, thank you for being with us this morning. I was reading about the straits this morning and there being a blockade within a blockade. So can you give us any clarity as to what exactly is happening in the Strait of Hormuz?
Sure, Clare. There is effectively two blockades. One is the United States blockading Iran, and the other is Iran basically blockading everyone else. What's critical there is when Iran was blockading everyone else, which it has been for about the last eight weeks since the start of this war, they were still able to get their own stuff out.
So ships were moving pretty much every day at a fraction of usual volumes, but most of them were actually moving Iranian stuff. So not just oil and gas, but also day-to-day imports and exports for Iran. So when the US imposed its blockade just over a week ago, that's the thing that then tries to shut off Iran. And that does really change the negotiations.
The tariff is just breaking down because... it does put more of an onus, an economic onus on Iran. That figure, 500 million a day that you mentioned, Claire, that's probably not far from the truth. The amount of oil that Iran would try to export a day, that being stopped is going to be a serious financial punishment on the regime, not just the country, but the regime itself.
So there is nothing moving there at the moment, is there?
Almost nothing. Now, look, there are some ships moving here and there for various reasons. Sometimes there's ships that have secured an arrangement with Iran, either through diplomacy. For example, we know that there's some ships got out because India or Pakistan negotiated a ship to get out. In some cases, we're pretty sure the owners of the ships paid maybe up to $2 million, basically a bribe.
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Chapter 4: What challenges does Iran face in the ongoing negotiations?
So in the best cases, you have companies, and frankly, these would be the companies that I work with because they're willing to work with my company, Control Risks. They have already found ways to get crew off their ships, get them into countries like the UAE, down into Oman, and get them out through the airport, and then get a fresh crew in.
So they're able to rotate people in and out, take care of them, make sure there's food and water and supplies available. Unfortunately, a harsh reality of the maritime world is that not every ship owner behaves like that. There will be plenty of ships and crews that have not been taken care of. And you probably won't see that on the news because it tends not to get reported.
But that will be a harsh reality. And look, I mean, there's thousands of seafarers trapped. Many of them will be well taken care of, but they are kind of living under the constant threat of attack here. And unfortunately, It's really important to note that the reason ships are staying where they are is precisely, it's not insurance, as some people have misreported.
It's precisely because of those crew and the ships themselves. So mariners have been killed in some of these attacks. There are dead mariners. And that is the primary reason why so many mariners are sheltering in place, as we would say it.
And, you know, as you mentioned, there are some countries that have managed to get their ships out and they have paid tolls or bribes, as you have described. Is that happening now or has all of that stopped in this new scenario?
Right now we're seeing basically nothing. So this was before the US imposed its blockade just over a week ago. Before the US blockade came in, there was a handful of ships getting out through these mechanisms. And again, I don't want to paint too much of a rosy picture. It's not like India negotiated every single ship that it needs to get out.
It seems like India may have negotiated to get a couple of LNG tankers out, you know. And then in some cases, individual ships were willing to pay a fee to the IRGC. So now, after the US blockade has been imposed, there's even less being able to move through. Because now... Even if you've paid a fee to the IRGC, now you've got to engage with the risk of the United States stopping you.
And that's what happened on Sunday. The United States did stop a ship and fired upon it.
So you're not going to budge, essentially. So this is why, as you said at the beginning, it's the nightmare scenario, really, isn't it?
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Chapter 5: What are the economic consequences of the blockade for Iran?
So it sounds like they got some agreement from someone in Iran. You've agreed to let us out. Now you're firing at us. Please let us turn around. It's a very emotional, very dramatic exchange. And what it says is that even if a ship did get an agreement from someone in Iran, that doesn't mean that some unit on the coastline isn't even aware of that agreement and could go attack.
So it's a really complicated picture.
It's a mess. It's an absolute mess. Cormac, would you describe it so well? Thank you very much for explaining it all to us. Cormac McGarry there from Control Risks and Cormac is Director for Maritime Security.
The Clare Byrne Show. With Aviva Insurance. Weekday mornings at 9. On Newstalk. Conversation that counts.