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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Clare Byrne Show on Newstalk with Aviva Insurance.
Jim O'Callaghan and Dara Kaliri have been mooted as possible candidates for any leadership race in Fianna Fáil and Micheál Martin appears to be holding fast to power right now. But talk about who will be the next leader has been rife since the party's poor performance in the recent by-elections. So has the race effectively begun?
Well, Gerard Howland is a public affairs consultant and former senior political advisor, and he joins me now. We were talking about this earlier on Anton's programme, and I described it as a shadow race in Fianna Fáil. How would you describe it? Is it underway? Is it rumbling around there, Gerard?
Chapter 2: Who are the potential candidates for leadership in Fianna Fáil?
It's not underway. There's a bit of rumbling. There's always a leadership race in every party in that somebody is looking at themselves in the mirror every morning and wondering, what about me? Positioning themselves vis-a-vis their colleagues and so on. But in real terms, is there any effective race on today? The answer is simply no.
More money has been lost in bookie shops betting against Micheál Martin than I think can be calculated at this stage. It's very much his to give up when he chooses, barring an event or a mistake.
And do you think that is what will happen, that he will decide to leave rather than being pushed?
I don't know is the short answer. He has incredible stamina. I mean, he's been extraordinarily successful in managing a weak party a weak political hand himself in terms of keeping himself as leader since 2011, in getting himself back into the Taoiseach's office twice, in being really dominant in the ether of Fianna Fáil. But actually, he thrives in its weakness.
His strength is its weakness because it is weak in terms of personnel, in terms of numbers, in terms of energy. He, as that very dominant force, is proportionately a bigger character, a bigger figure.
So what type of a person do you have to be who thrives on your party being on life support?
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Chapter 3: Has the leadership race in Fianna Fáil effectively begun?
People forget how bad things were back in 2011. I mean, the machine was very nearly switched off a couple of times and he has stayed in there, as you have said, since then. But what does that say about him as a leader?
His determination and stamina and grace is simply unprecedented. I mean, you could go back to Hawhey in 81, 82 and surviving the coups, but it was a much bigger machine. There was a lot more at stake. These were very lean times. And his determination to go on regardless make him a singular political figure. What he lacks, I would argue. is vision and imagination.
And that's why, you know, we're talking about runners and riders in terms of the future leadership of Fianna Fáil. Perhaps the bigger issue is the relevance, because unless a future leader can address that issue of its relevance, I'm not sure it's really as important as we might
So redefining what Fianna Fáil is, because he did an interview with Gavin Riley on Virgin and he talked about being pro-enterprise. And I think there were some in Fianna Fáil who said, well, that's what Fianna Fáil is. So you can't, you know, you can't say that as your lead item on a description of Fianna Fáil. So you've got to redefine what the party is.
Now, who is there amongst the runners and riders who may have a vision, do you think, for what the party should be?
I mean, I think there are people who are somewhat livelier, somewhat more animated, and I think particularly of Jim O'Callaghan or perhaps Dara Kaliri, whether what they have, that energy they have, amounts to a comprehensive vision, which they can articulate in government, which, by the way, is partially a disadvantage, because reimagining while you're in government...
while you're pinned down hour by hour, day by day, dealing with all the issues that arise, to find a headspace, to find a political room, to take on a new position, a new stance, is actually much more difficult. But do either of them, yes, or anyone else in Fianna Fáil, has articulated something for the 21st century in which life as we live it and experience it is utterly changed.
from the Fianna Fáil that was founded just 100 years ago. The answer, yes, is no.
But is there anyone, are you hearing, is there anyone on manoeuvres? Because it seems to be a six-month race period from July now while the presidency is underway for the EU.
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Chapter 4: What factors are influencing Micheál Martin's leadership position?
I suppose Dara O'Brien and Jack Chambers are two others who might self-suggest or might conceivably put their hands up. And that's about the absolute outer extent of the list.
I saw some interesting speculation about Jack Chambers because a lot of people held the presidential election and the Jim Gavin saga against Jack Chambers. But the suggestion I read at the weekend was if he has a good budget, he could be in a very different place now towards the end of October.
Six months is an eternity in politics. He, Chambers, has handled himself well since the debacle of the presidential election. He hasn't let it get him down. He has continued on. He's doing his work. He's up and at it. And as you say, if he's deemed to have a good budget by next year, it could be further back in the rearview mirror.
And Dara O'Brien?
Dara O'Brien has had three major jobs in Cabinet, which is at least one more than any of his colleagues because he had housing in the last door. He has transport as one department, another, and then separately he has climate, energy and environment in this. Is he a potential leader? Perhaps some people think so. I'm not convinced.
Now, Dara Kaliri, we mentioned as well, and he has the advantage in that the rural constituency might be more in favour of Dara being the next leader rather than Jim.
Yes, because what will happen next has never happened before. Every leader of Fianna Fáil has been chosen by the TDs alone in the parliamentary party. The next time out for the first time, as yet untried, will be an electoral college.
That electoral college is significantly different to the Fine Gael electoral college that elected Leo Varadkar in 2017, I think, because the Fianna Fáil electoral college gives 45% of the vote to the party members, provided you've been a paid-up member for one year.
It gives less than that, just 40% to the TDs, and it gives 15% to Senators, MEPs, Councillors and members of the National Executive. So that, while sweeping the Parliamentary Party would give you a good start, if you could sweep it, The membership will be very, very important. The membership of Fianna Fáil is overwhelmingly based in rural constituencies.
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Chapter 5: What qualities define a successful leader in Fianna Fáil?
and few people believe this is true, but I wouldn't absolutely rule it out, that he has not decided not to lead on into the next election.
OK, and that theory around the presidency of the EU, that something may happen towards the end of this year, do you lend any weight to that theory?
No, because, I mean, this is Leinster House talk about people who thought he would be gone umpteen times by now. They've always gotten it wrong. They have no basis other than their own wishful thinking. And as I say, they don't know what Micheál Martin intends to do. And to my knowledge, he hasn't told anyone.
And do you think there's another candidate in there that we haven't mentioned?
It's entirely possible, but there's 48 TDs, 10 of them, a few of all TDs I should say, 10 of them are brand new, several of them are retirees. You look around the other cabinet ministers and ministers say, I don't readily see it.
All right, we wait and see. Gerard Howland, thank you very much for being with us. A couple of messages coming in on that. Patrick thinks Billy Callagher should be considered as Fianna Fáil leader. He's over in Europe at the moment. And Tony says, surely Micheál Martin's success has more to do with Fianna Gael rescuing him by agreeing to share power to keep Sinn Féin out of the picture.
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