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CommSec Market Update

PM 04 May 26: Caution ahead of RBA decision

04 May 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

2.613 - 4.015 Laura Becerrati

a listener production.

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7.059 - 10.644 Steve Daghlian

The Aussie market kicks off the week in the red ahead of a busy couple of days.

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11.084 - 15.61 Laura Becerrati

And investors are holding their breath ahead of the Reserve Bank's interest rate decision tomorrow.

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15.67 - 21.718 Steve Daghlian

Good afternoon, I'm Steve Daglian. I'm Laura Becerrati. It's Monday the 4th of May. Welcome to the ComSec Market Update.

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Chapter 2: What market trends are impacting the Australian share market this week?

21.8 - 33.776 Laura Becerrati

Can you believe it, Stevie? The ninth decline in the past 10 sessions. So, of course, on Friday, we did see our market improve. It was our best day in a little while, but we're back down today.

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Chapter 3: How is the Reserve Bank's interest rate decision affecting investors?

33.837 - 44.331 Laura Becerrati

It seems to have been quite a cautious start to the week. As you mentioned, it's a busy week ahead, and I think things are really going to kick off tomorrow with that Reserve Bank decision, 2.30pm Sydney time.

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44.311 - 60.481 Steve Daghlian

Yes, over the past two weeks, our market has shed around 2.8% of its value. It means that since the war started in late February, our market is down by roughly 5.5%, so we're still under a lot of pressure. I think it's easy to forget, though, that April overall, if we look at it as a group, it wasn't too bad.

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60.841 - 65.61 Steve Daghlian

Yes, the last couple of weeks have been pretty rough, but we still managed to lift by around 2.2% in April.

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65.59 - 75.862 Laura Becerrati

Yeah, and we did have quite a good start to the year as well. So that means at this stage, we're pretty much flat since the start of this year. So I guess it certainly could be worse with everything going on in the world.

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75.882 - 89.978 Steve Daghlian

Yeah, exactly. Considering the set of circumstances that we're faced with at the moment with a war, a number of them really, we've got interest rates that have also been raised twice already in Australia since the start of this year and very well could be increased again tomorrow.

89.958 - 108.135 Laura Becerrati

Yeah, and inflation pressures. We had tariffs, which feel like a lifetime ago, but that was really at the start of this year. Once again, that started to sort of heat up again. I think President Trump has forgotten about the tariffs for now, at least, although he did announce some new tariffs on Germany over the course of the weekend. So maybe he hasn't completely forgotten about them.

108.115 - 132.569 Laura Becerrati

But look across the different sectors today. It's been a fairly mixed bag. Now, unsurprisingly, we have seen energy falling by a little over 2%. So it's the worst performing sector as we speak. And this is after oil prices fell back below 108 US a barrel amid signs of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, which we'll talk about later. in just a moment.

132.61 - 155.976 Laura Becerrati

But if you remember, oil prices got to something like 120 US a barrel just last week. So they've really come off the boil. Now, in terms of the US and Iran, we did hear Trump say that the United States will guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz, calling this Project Freedom. Now, he said this follows very positive discussions with Iran, which are still continuing, but

155.956 - 178.96 Laura Becerrati

Reports from Iran, however, warn that any US interference in the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire, saying the Strait will not be managed by, quote, Trump's delusional posts. So the two still seeming to not see eye to eye. They're at a stalemate of sorts. But, you know, some reports of productive talks. But we have heard this a number of times, haven't we?

Chapter 4: What factors are contributing to the decline in the energy sector?

503.612 - 518.637 Laura Becerrati

Okay, let's look ahead. We've already spoken briefly about the RBA's interest rate decision tomorrow. So they are largely expected to hike rates for the third meeting in a row, so the third time this year, which would take rates to 4.35%, its highest level this

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518.617 - 544.793 Laura Becerrati

since december 2024 and there's about a 77 chance that the rba will actually raise rates tomorrow so i guess still a small chance that they might keep things exactly where they are but a bigger chance that they will hike rates once again yeah and last time they met they were kind of split on whether or not to lift interest rates or keep them on hold so we'll see what the split is there that's going to be interesting in the final hour and a half of trade we've also got westpac out with its first half results tomorrow after nab

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544.773 - 549.9 Steve Daghlian

Did so today in ANZ last Friday. And then I believe there might be a few more quarterlies around as well.

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550.02 - 566.342 Laura Becerrati

Yeah, and the Macquarie Conference kicks off. This is the three-day event. It's, you know, a big one for investors because over 100 Aussie and New Zealand-based companies host presentations. And depending on what they say, that could potentially move share prices around. So another thing to watch, not only tomorrow, but over the next three days.

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566.322 - 577.549 Steve Daghlian

Yeah, there are a few holidays as well. Not so much here in Australia, but the Shanghai market is shut today. We've got the Toko Stock Exchange closed for a holiday, the London Stock Exchange tonight and tomorrow also a few more in the region.

577.729 - 580.095 Laura Becerrati

All right, I think that wraps it up. We'll chat to you again tomorrow.

581.51 - 600.075 Steve Daghlian

This podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited, ABN 60067254399, AFSL 238814. The information does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

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