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CommSec Market Update

PM 12 May 26: Markets brace for budget

12 May 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

2.613 - 4.015 Laura Bessarati

a listener production.

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Chapter 2: Why did the Australian market decline for three consecutive days?

7 - 11.307 Steve Daghlian

Aussie stock slipped for a third day as Australia braces for tonight's federal budget.

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11.768 - 16.796 Laura Bessarati

And BHP hit a fresh record high, making it the largest stock on the Aussie market.

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17.196 - 18.438 Steve Daghlian

Good afternoon, I'm Steve Daglian.

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18.658 - 19.9 Laura Bessarati

I'm Laura Bessarati.

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19.961 - 21.643 Steve Daghlian

It's Tuesday the 12th of May.

Chapter 3: What impact did President Trump's comments on Iran have on market sentiment?

21.703 - 24.047 Steve Daghlian

Welcome to the CommSec Market Update.

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25.462 - 39.665 Laura Bessarati

Well, Stevie, it looks like we're on track for a third straight session of declines. Not falling by much, though, just a very modest move lower, down by a third of 1% heading into the close. But of course, on Friday, we were down 1.5%.

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Chapter 4: How did BHP become Australia's largest company?

39.885 - 50.963 Laura Bessarati

That was our worst day in seven weeks. So over the past three days, we've lost around 2.5% and currently hovering roughly around a one-month low.

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50.943 - 73.51 Steve Daghlian

Crazy to think we were above 9,000 points not too long ago, and now we're sitting at about 8,675. But overnight, we had US President Donald Trump calling Iran's counter-proposal for a peace deal garbage, and also saying that the ceasefire with Iran was on life support. So that type of Commentary not doing much for encouraging markets that a deal is getting any closer.

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73.871 - 94.509 Steve Daghlian

And as usual, of course, our market also pretty quiet ahead of tonight's federal budget. Over the past decade, the median percentage move on budget day is actually just a tenth of 1%, so barely any movement at all. might be a little more at stake in tonight's budget or at least more focused perhaps on potential tax changes around capital gains tax, negative gearing. So it's going to be a big one.

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Chapter 5: What should investors expect from tonight's federal budget?

94.529 - 103.883 Steve Daghlian

And tomorrow morning, our colleague James Gruber will cover off some of the outcomes in the morning edition of the podcast. And then the CBA economics team will probably go into a bit more, a bit of greater detail on that too.

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103.863 - 127.92 Laura Bessarati

Looking at what happened last night, the US share market just continues to hit fresh record highs. So last night, it did only creep higher by about a tenth of 1%, but that was enough to hit a new all-time high. So the strength in the US market has really been driven by solid earnings, particularly from AI and semiconductor stocks. Of course, we have Nvidia out with their results next week.

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127.961 - 129.583 Laura Bessarati

So all eyes are going to be on that. But

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Chapter 6: How did the US share market perform recently?

129.563 - 145.064 Laura Bessarati

That's really what's been driving the strength in US markets. And it seems US investors have really been looking past the stalled US-Iran peace talks and the ongoing closure of the Strait and the back and forth between both parties and just focusing on that solid earning season.

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145.204 - 158.322 Steve Daghlian

Yeah, and across the market today, there are just three sectors that are improving. The utilities, which is one of our smallest, it's up around 2.1%. Energy stocks, they're up a tenth of 1% today. And then the materials, the big winners, up by more than 2.5% today.

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158.302 - 161.387 Laura Bessarati

I also wanted to highlight some year-to-date moves.

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Chapter 7: What were the major stock movements today?

161.447 - 182.841 Laura Bessarati

So the Aussie market, as it stands right now, we're down ever so slightly in year-to-date terms, down by something like a third of 1%. But that compares with the United States, which is up by a little over 8%. And if we look at the tech-heavy Nasdaq alone, it's up by 13%. So the US market certainly outperforming our market here in Australia.

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182.821 - 207.58 Laura Bessarati

Another thing that happened overnight, we've seen Trump's pick for the next Fed chair, Kevin Walsh. He got one step closer to getting confirmed into the position. So it appears to be somewhat of a three-step process. So last night, he cleared a key hurdle in the US Senate. And then there's another vote required to confirm him for a 14-year term as Fed governor. So he'll be on the board.

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207.56 - 229.399 Laura Bessarati

If that's confirmed, that could happen as soon as tonight, potentially. And then finally, lawmakers would need to go through a confirmation process for him to become the Fed chair with a vote on that role, potentially coming as soon as Wednesday. So it could be all revealed this week ahead of the current Fed chair's last day, which is this Friday, the 15th of May.

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229.379 - 242.172 Steve Daghlian

We've also had a couple of updates on consumer and business confidence today, basically showing us how we're all feeling about our finances. The weekly one that was released basically highlighted that consumer sentiment is a bit on the weak side.

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Chapter 8: Why did Life360 and DroneShield see significant stock declines?

242.192 - 255.066 Steve Daghlian

In fact, the fourth lowest reading on record. The three rate hikes we've had so far this year, obviously not helpful, but tonight's federal budget may be just getting a bit more attention than your typical budget, just keeping investors and markets guessing a little bit.

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255.046 - 268.735 Steve Daghlian

And also we had an update on business conditions, basically showing that, and confidence, showing that business conditions have fallen now for a fourth consecutive month. The Middle East conflict just putting upward pressure on cost for a number of different companies.

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269.055 - 294.064 Laura Bessarati

Let's look at some of the big stock moves today. And it was hard to ignore mining giant BHP because it did touch an all-time high during today's session, surpassing $60 per share for the first time ever. So its share price is now a little over 30% higher in year-to-date terms with a market cap of roughly $304 billion Aussie dollars. That makes it the largest Aussie stock, overtaking

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294.044 - 310.001 Laura Bessarati

CBA once again. So they're really competing for that position. They're going back and forth as time passes. At the moment, BHP is the biggest and CBA the second biggest. Now I had a look back over the past 10 years and BHP has actually only posted a yearly loss twice over the past 10 years.

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310.381 - 332.022 Laura Bessarati

And its recent gains are likely driven by a surge in copper prices, which surged to a record high overnight. And that's beneficial to BHP because its copper division recently became its biggest earner, overtaking iron ore as its biggest profit driver. And it's also had a strong focus on continuing to grow its copper segment, which has been performing very strongly.

332.082 - 344.406 Laura Bessarati

So that's certainly helped BHP's share price today. But also, Other miners involved with copper, including Rio Tinto, Capstone Copper and 29 Metals, which has jumped by 10% today.

344.627 - 367.811 Steve Daghlian

And just on that as well, the Middle East conflict has limited the supply of sulphur. So that's a critical ingredient into extracting copper. In fact, about 50%. of global seaborne sulphur supply moves its way through the Strait of Hormuz. So essentially no sulphur means very little copper production or at least a potential shortage of supply. So that also has been potentially a bit of a driver.

367.851 - 387.215 Steve Daghlian

Looking at one of the losers of the day today, it's actually Life360. It's down around 11%. The location tracking app released its first quarter results today. Record quarterly numbers. It upgraded its guidance for the year as well. It said it also made around 20 million US dollars in advertising revenue just over the quarter.

388.096 - 405.912 Steve Daghlian

What perhaps did not please investors was the number of monthly active users globally. So about 97.8 million monthly active users, which sounds like a lot, but it's up around 17% year on year. It did flag though that there's been a temporary technical issue, which has weighed on growth and that may be holding back the stock a bit.

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