Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
A listener production.
Markets are seeking direction on Middle East uncertainty and a US long weekend.
And what should investors be watching over the course of this week?
Good afternoon, I'm Steve Daglian.
I'm Laura Becerrati.
It's Monday, the 25th of May.
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Chapter 2: What are the current trends in the Australian share market?
Welcome to the ComSec Market Update.
I almost didn't believe you when you said the date there. It's almost the end of May already, but we're here to talk about the share market today. It's been a positive day. It looks like we're on track for a third straight session of gains.
We're only up very modestly though, up by around 0.4%, but it is better than where we started the day because in the morning we weren't really sure which way to go. We were barely budging for a lot of the session and we've actually flicked over into positive territory, which is of course good news.
So if we look back over the past three days, it looks like we're on track to gain a little over 2% over the prior three sessions. There is a little bit of cautious optimism going on in markets with what's going on between the US and Iran. But it looks like maybe they could be closer to a deal. Maybe not. We keep saying that.
But it did seem a little bit more optimistic than it has in the past, at least. over the weekend.
Yeah, cautious optimism, I think, is the right way to put it, because it's hard to know exactly where this US-Iran peace deal is going to end up. President Trump essentially saying at the weekend that they're very close to an agreement at the peace deal, of course, which he flagged in a very lengthy social post, which we've become accustomed to now.
He basically highlighted that the final aspects and details of the deal will be announced shortly, that the Strait of Hormuz will be open soon as well. Iran was pretty quick to push back on this, and Trump himself actually was pretty quick to play down hopes of an imminent deal about 24 hours after that initial post, saying that he's in no rush to strike a deal.
and that the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz would remain in place. So make of that what you will, but it's a back and forth that we've seen a number of times, of course, over the past 12 weeks. But you're right, some optimism. We'll see how long it can last.
Yeah, but look, the main thing here is that it looks like it's going to continue driving markets. We've seen it with, you equity markets with commodity prices. So oil prices have actually lost around 5%. So if we look at what the energy sector is doing today, it's down by around 2.5%. So some of those big stocks within that sector like Karun, Woodside, Santos, they're all on the losers list.
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Chapter 3: How is Middle East uncertainty affecting market direction?
I don't know if that's going to happen.
Yeah, we'll wait and see.
A bit too optimistic, perhaps.
Yeah, we'll wait and see. But you're right, it's been certainly, obviously, news coming out of the Middle East has been the big driver of oil and gas prices, but jet fuel prices as well, and other commodities as well, like fertiliser.
So we know that in March we had oil prices, or actually the energy sector, lifting by almost 20% because of, you know, what this could mean, I guess, for oil and gas prices and supplies as well. But the last couple of months, things have slowed down a bit. So since the start of May, the energy sector here in Australia is down by about 5%.
But you're right in pointing out that pretty much, well, you know, the... the losers have really been dominated, that losers list by many of these oil and gas companies. So the likes of Karun, Woodside, Santos, Beach Energy, Viva Energy, all of these companies are under a lot of pressure today.
And the oil price peaked at close to 120 at the peak of all of this conflict, but at the moment trading around 97 US per barrel. So it's come down quite a bit since that peak.
Yeah, and there's plenty of company news around as well, or at least some that's receiving attention. We've heard today from Charter Hall, the property group, which has upgraded its profit guidance for the year. This is for the third time now. It basically expects earnings to lift by around 26% on last year. And it would be almost 35% stronger than what it made the year prior in 2024.
It also noted, interestingly, that the changes in the federal budget to the capital gains tax and negative gearing to residential property might actually be a positive for the group because it could basically drive more demand towards high yielding commercial assets that it's involved with.
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