Chapter 1: What are the current dynamics of the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran?
The U.S. and Israel's war with Iran is rippling throughout the region. And some of the most active fighting outside of Iran is taking place in Lebanon. That's where Israel is conducting a massive bombing campaign and ground invasion. Just outside of Lebanon's capital, Beirut, there's a Christian-majority neighborhood called Hazmiyeh.
Chapter 2: How is Lebanon becoming a significant front in the conflict?
That's where, in 1958, George Shibley says his grandfather built the Comfort Hotel. But after an Israeli airstrike, the hotel has been reduced to rubble and broken glass. NPR correspondent Hadil Al-Shalchi was on the scene with Shibley as he described the destruction. Chablis says he's tired of Lebanon being helpless and not having control over its own affairs.
Orders from outside, meaning being told what to do by other countries. It's a country that is defined by the geography that it sits in, a geography of conflict at the intersection of interests that clash on its territory, of Western influence and Arab disputes. And it seems to be the fate of this country to keep going through these different conflicts.
Kim Khattas is a journalist for the Financial Times and The Atlantic. She was born and raised in Lebanon and has spent decades covering the Middle East. We're entering a new cycle and the future of this Middle East today is being defined.
Chapter 3: What impact did Hezbollah's actions have on the situation in Lebanon?
Consider this. The current conflict is not just a regional crisis. It's reshaping how countries in the Middle East relate to one another and to forces within with global repercussions. From NPR, I'm Adrian Ma. It's Consider This from NPR. Lebanon has become the most active second front in the continued conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.
Israel began its military assault on Lebanon after the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel as a show of solidarity with Iran. Now, Israel and Lebanon have a long history of war between them. But for journalist Kim Kratas, this one is different. When I spoke with her, she had just left her home in Beirut.
I am actually no longer in Beirut, but north of the Lebanese capital, because the very wide-scale evacuation order that came from the Israeli army on Thursday afternoon covered a huge part of the southern suburbs of Beirut. Beirut. And you have to remember, Beirut is a large urban sprawl.
Chapter 4: How has the Lebanese government responded to Hezbollah's actions?
So when we speak of suburbs, they're not sort of distant, quaint areas. They are densely populated neighborhoods. We believe that about 800,000 residents were displaced by that evacuation order. That's 13% of the Lebanese population. And you can just imagine the heartbreak the panic and the pressure on the rest of the country that this is causing.
You talk about Beirut being sort of a sprawling area. With these attacks, do you feel the proximity of them, even though it is sort of a sprawling area?
We all feel it and we feel generally in Lebanon that we're entering a dangerous new phase that could see a further ground incursion by Israeli forces into southern Lebanon and potentially a scenario where people will not be able to go back to the southern suburbs, which is where Hezbollah has a lot of its offices, some of its infrastructure.
There are concerns that this is a long-term campaign that Israel is now waging against Lebanon, which will continue regardless of how the war against Iran will unfold. This renewed intensification of the conflict happened because Hezbollah decided that it should show solidarity with Iran and launch rockets at Israel to mourn the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei.
Chapter 5: What are the potential long-term implications of the Israeli campaign in Lebanon?
And there's a lot of anger in the Shia community and in Lebanon in general because of what they've done. I think it is worth emphasizing for folks that Hezbollah is not the same thing as Lebanon's government. What has been the response from Lebanon's government?
The Lebanese government has come out and said that Hezbollah's military and security actions are now considered to be outside of the law. They've called on members of the Revolutionary Guards of Iran to leave the country. They said they've arrested people who are carrying weapons in southern Lebanon. But for a lot of the Lebanese, this feels like too little, too late.
The Lebanese government had the opportunity over the last year to really demonstrate its serious intention in establishing and enforcing Lebanese state authority over the whole of the country, especially southern Lebanon. The fear amongst the Lebanese officials was that pushing too much too far against Hezbollah could provoke a civil war. Instead, we're now in a war with Israel.
Now that Lebanon's government has made moves of wanting to clamp down on Hezbollah, is there still a risk that a civil war could happen? I don't think so. I think that that is always a very convenient excuse to avoid taking serious measures and serious decisions. Right now, I think there could be isolated incidents. There's a lot of anger in the rest of Lebanon against Hezbollah.
But it is a very, very heavy load. It's a lot of pressure for a small country to go through this intense war twice in just over a year and a half. Zooming out for a bit, because you've covered the Middle East for many years, and I'm interested in your take on how this war could affect the geopolitics in the region.
So Iran has been firing missiles and drones into neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq. the UAE and Oman. And Iran says they're aiming at things like U.S. military bases, but we know that civilian targets have been hit too. Can you talk about how these Gulf states around Iran are reacting to all this? Well, they're not happy. That's for sure.
I think that probably what happened was Saudi leaders telling the United States, telling President Trump, you know, we believe that Iran is not as weak as you think that it is. We prefer diplomacy. But if you go for war, you have to go all the way because we don't want to be left with a vengeful, spiteful regime in place that is probably going to continue to fund militias in the
and probably rushed to get a nuclear bomb. So now what we're seeing is very much Iran trying to raise the cost of this war for everybody, including Gulf countries, in the hope that some of these Gulf countries will then pressure the United States to wrap up as quickly as possible because all prices are going up, trade routes are disrupted. Energy production is disrupted.
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Chapter 6: How are Gulf states reacting to Iran's military actions in the region?
Tourism is disrupted. This is not the vision that neither Dubai nor Riyadh had for the future. You talk about Iran's motive in sort of sending strikes into neighboring countries could be to get the U.S. to back off. But could this also backfire in terms of driving its neighboring countries closer together, aligning them more against Iran? Absolutely. I think we're already seeing that.
I think that countries that have often tension in their relations, especially recently the Saudis and the Emiratis had a big spat, think they've all rallied together in the face of of this unexpected, to some extent, conflict in the region. Whether they will come together and also fight back, I'm not sure we're there yet. I don't see at this moment in time Gulf countries participating actively
in this conflict.
Chapter 7: What could be the future geopolitical shifts in the Middle East due to this conflict?
I think they would still try to stay not on the sideline, but not participate fully. And they've made assertions to this effect, that they're not allowing their airspace to be used, that they're not allowing their territory to be used. I don't at the moment think yet that this is about to change.
Kim Katas is a journalist based in Beirut and author of Black Wave, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the 40-year rivalry that unraveled culture, religion, and collective memory in the Middle East. Kim, thanks for joining us. Great to be with you. Reporting from NPR's Hadil Al-Shalchi contributed to this story. This episode was produced by Daniel Offman.
It was edited by Michael Levitt, Sarah Robbins, and Hannah Block. Our executive producer is Sammy Yannigan. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Adrian Ma.