Crossing Thin Ice
Episodes
Rethinking Volatility
16 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Replace "this won't happen" with "what if" and give your strategy a fighting chance. Volatility isn’t just a number — it’s the signal that tells...
Good Execution: The Final Ingredient to Business Profits
02 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Execution isn’t speed or perfection. It’s reliable delivery under chaos. Use these six steps to get there. Great ideas can fail simply because exe...
When ORSA Rides the Elevator
18 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Most ORSA reports definitely fall into the TLDR category. But you can tell the ORSA with a clear, fast story that will become a part of the strategy d...
Data Centers: Thirsty and Power Hungry
04 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Data centers, AI, and local energy and water systems are colliding — and communities are feeling the strain. In this episode, we break down how data...
Good Timing and Risk Management
21 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Good timing is a critical advantage in product launches and broader risk management. But you need to be ready. Readiness is internal - organizationa...
When Investing for Float Makes Sense
07 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Can insurers treat premiums like a cheap loan — and when does that bet blow up? In this episode we unpack “investing for float”: where it can bo...
Good Judgment with Risk Management
23 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
True business success often hinges less on the risks taken and more on the quality of judgment, timing, and execution. Yet, what precisely constitutes...
Risks Growing in the Dark
09 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Many of the most extreme dangers aren’t where people are looking. When risks are “in the light”—visible and priced—they get managed and shri...
Deforestation and Feedback Loops
19 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
What if the world's largest rainforest became a savanna? The Sahara was once lush. Could the Amazon face a similar fate within a generation? Defore...
AI Simulations for Risk Managers
05 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Ever wished you could practice for those critical conversations or high-stakes scenarios before they happen? In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Max...
Demographics and Destiny
22 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Everything we know about economic growth is about to change. Demographics hold the key.This discussion explores how global demographics, from declinin...
Risks and Reward
08 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Do you believe higher risk always leads to higher returns? This podcast challenges that conventional wisdom. Max Rudolph and Dave Ingram explore the c...
Beware the Myths of AI
17 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Are AI myths clouding your judgment? Join Dave and Max as they debunk the two most common fantasies about artificial intelligence, revealing the true ...
Time to Update your Scenarios?
03 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Recent economic volatility, geopolitical tensions, and climate impacts are reshaping the landscape of risk. With insights on the importance of adaptin...
SEC Risk Disclosures
20 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Think you understand corporate risk? Listen in as we explore the ins and outs of SEC disclosures. Are the risks that matter the most being buried? ...
Enhancing Your Creativity with AI
06 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Explore how AI can enhance creative problem-solving within risk management. Dave and Max discuss the importance of adapting to emerging risks and the ...
Emerging Risks and the Insurer’s Dilemma
15 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Insurance only works if we can all keep up with the rapid changes being brought on by climate change. In this podcast, Max Rudolph explores the ch...
Anti-ERM Beliefs
01 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Anyone who has worked in Risk Management has encountered individuals who, for one reason or another, do not believe that ERM is beneficial to a compan...
Just Around the Corner: 2025 Stress Scenarios
18 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Discover four scenarios that could reshape our world and your business. Max and Dave are always talking about how important it is to do stress tests. ...
Top Emerging Risks for 2025
04 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Are we ready for the next wave of challenges? As the world evolves, so do the risks that come with it. From climate change to geopolitical tensions an...
Ocean Acidification and the AMOC
18 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Climate change isn’t just about heat. It’s also changing the chemistry of our oceans, with serious consequences for marine life and food security....
Own Factor Risk Formulas
04 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Are you using RBC for your company’s risk capital calculations? In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph dive into the powe...
Does the Starting Point Matter?
21 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
When building scenarios - It certainly does! Think about how the 2008 financial crisis reshaped economic forecasts. Those who clung to pre-crisis as...
Align ERM to the Company
07 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Ever wonder why the ‘best practices’ in ERM often fail? Here’s the secret. ERM that does not fit the company will be rejected. It will not t...
Adaptor - A Vital New Business Role
17 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The future belongs to those who learn to adapt. In this, the 48th episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph dive into the importance o...
Risks for 2025 and Beyond
03 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
From China’s aging population and economic slowdown to India’s tech-fueled growth, from the decline of globalization to the rise of AI and climate...
Spillover Revisited #46
19 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, we revisit the crucial topic of zoonotic spillover diseases and their evolving impact. From the ongoing challeng...
Large Language Models in Risk Management
05 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Discover how LLMs are transforming the way risk professionals tackle complex problems, enhancing decision-making much like spreadsheets revolutionized...
Model Assumptions under Increasing Uncertainty
22 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
There are massive challenges for setting modeling assumptions in an era of increasing uncertainty. With insights into the impact of climate change, ec...
The Power of Risk Management Decision-Making
08 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
A risk-focused mindset ensures better informed, resilient decisions. This mindset leads to a Risk Management Decision-Making process that we describe ...
Regime Change - Before & After
24 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Once more, we dive into a critical discussion on regime change, the scenarios that could drive it, and for the first time talk about what might follow...
AI in Investing: Enhancing Risk Strategy
10 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
AI is being used to improve investment decision-making and risk management. Dave and Max discuss how these models can be retrained with specialized kn...
Vector Borne Illnesses
20 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
As winters grow milder and the global climate shifts, vector-borne diseases like Lyme and Zika are spreading to new regions. Join us as we delve into ...
Scenario Planning in 10 Steps
06 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Build your strategic foresight with our latest Crossing Thin Ice episode "Scenario Planning in 10 Steps." Learn how you can use scenario planning to r...
Zero Cash Flow Assets
23 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Is there a Place for Zero Cash Flow Assets? Whether a product of today’s added complexity or a result of the recent reach for yield when rates a...
Overconfidence
09 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We are all overconfident. Sometimes Overconfidence is what is needed to get out of bed in the morning. In an insurance company it is often the c...
The Power of AI to Revolutionize Actuarial Work
18 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Explore with us how AI is poised to transform the actuarial landscape. We interview Dan Kim, an actuary pioneering AI innovation to streamline researc...
Risk Beliefs
04 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
You must walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Strong Risk Management culture means that words and actions are also consistent with beliefs. B...
Cybercrime - Most Dangerous Risk of 2024
21 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The leading risk in the 2024 survey is Cybercrime. From phishing scams to ransomware attacks, cybercriminals are constantly evolving, posing new t...
Permafrost
07 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Feedback loops are increasingly seen as important in climate projections. Melting permafrost is expected to accelerate warming of the planet and r...
Regime Change - Scenarios
23 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Four scenario examples leading to Regime Change from Neil Howe, Ray Dalio, Peter Zeihan and the IPCC show us how widely the disruptions can differ whi...
Interest Rate Risk for Insurers
09 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
When rates recently spiked it surprised many with direct and indirect implications. The market value of bonds decreased, and the price of replacem...
Dangerous Risks 2024: Return to Normal Concerns
21 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The 2024 survey sees respondents react to recent increases in specific risks as technology evolves and the environment moves away from the pandemi...
No Free Lunch
05 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
New asset classes like junk bonds and subprime mortgages initially promised high returns without too much risk. Many investors were surprised to f...
RiskMaster Cheat Code
20 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Has any of your ERM program has been written down? Or is it at risk of being lost when a key player leaves the insurer? The Risk Management Fram...
Water, Water Everywhere
06 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Climate change and population growth have stressed fresh water sources, leaving agriculture and coastal residents with opposing issues. While ...
Achieving Resilience
23 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Resilience can be described as bending without breaking. There are four aspects of ERM that all need to be fully adopted to achieve this important...
Using Risk Appetite: Contrarian Views
09 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
It is commonly assumed that higher returns require higher risk to be accepted. Fear and greed may outperform over the short term but often the las...
Regime Changes lead to New Normal
18 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Radical changes in our Physical, Political, Economic and Social systems have been and will continue to buffet humanity. Every so often the combined re...
Leverage: The Flip Side of Risk Management
04 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
It was tempting, when interest rates were so low, to borrow just because you could. But that may not be best for an organization from a risk/rewar...
Climate Migration
20 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
No one is arguing anymore that the planet is not getting hotter, but what are the limits to temperature rise for humans survival? The ramification...
Risk and Capital
06 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Stakeholder perception about the appropriate level of risk and the corresponding capital level varies. Some insurers focus on optimizing income an...
Interactions between risks: Implications for building scenarios
23 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Historically, scenarios have focused on one assumption at a time but that is not realistic in today’s quickly evolving world. Risk interactions are ...
Why Insurers Do ERM
09 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Enterprise Risk Management is practiced in different ways by insurers. Some focus on the basics while others consider ERM as a strategic stren...
After COVID
25 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Prior to 2019, Pandemic was the most studied emerging risk. And now that one has happened, it is time to study our reactions to COVID. In this podcast...
Six Futures for ERM
11 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Scenario based planning is good for forming company strategy and it can also be good for planning risk management. There are a number of ways that...
Super Volcano
21 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
A volcano erupts somewhere, on average, every week. Eruptions large enough to impact the global environment happen much less frequently, but they ...
Concentration
07 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Concentration is added by doubling down on things you do well. This two-part story considers strategic drivers that add to concentration and tacti...
Cascadia Earthquake
23 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
When a catastrophic event hasn’t happened since 1700 there is not much historical data to aid those who live there or insure residents. Here are...
Telling Your ERM Story to Rating Agency
10 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
There is a story about ERM that most insurers can tell. A story with four chapters: ERM Framework, Individual Risks, Aggregate Risk & Capital ...
Microplastics
19 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Tiny pieces of plastic are found in the ocean, soils and the human body. This can’t be good. Scientists are still learning about the implication...
Three Levels of Stress
07 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Stress tests come in a wide variety of levels of adversity. This podcast suggests that we all should focus on just three: normal volatility, realistic...
Solar Storms
22 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Emerging risks play a key role in risk analysis. One such emerging risk, Solar Storms, is much more than just pretty northern lights. An impactful...
Inflation - Most Dangerous Risk of 2023
08 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
A deep dive into the risk selected as the Most Dangerous of 2023. We compare recent inflation spikes against past events, look at the drivers of the...
Fear vs. Danger
24 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Fear or Danger is a false choice. But using rational thought to balance fear and danger, and find an appropriate response, is very difficult. This...
Spillover Diseases
07 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As humans encroach on new ecosystems diseases found in animals and birds can jump to a new home inside us. We think about coronavirus and influenz...
Most Dangerous Risks
23 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Over 200 respondents in the Dangerous Risks to Insurers Survey reordered the top risks, with Inflation swapping with Cybersecurity and cybercrime ...
Bacterial Antimicrobial Resistance
01 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
This podcast is a challenge for you to consider something that is likely not yet on your risk register. Could the spread of bacteria with resistan...
Learning from Loss
22 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
A major loss often causes management to question past decisions. They might even reverse some of them, but this may be an overreaction. The Chief Risk...
Moderately Adverse Conditions
13 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
We have generally used a continuation of the current environment as our base assumption. But now, with the encouragement of the NY DFS, that is being ...
Three Little Pigs
28 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
When you encounter vastly different risk taking behaviors at two different businesses, you shouldn’t automatically presume that they are driven by t...
Narrative Scenarios
28 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The current real life scenario combines a pandemic, weather events, supply chain issues, inflation and a regional war all at the same time. Multi risk...