PE43: How likely is Balaji's Bitcoin bet, really?

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-third video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:43 Log scale 02:20 Bitcoin all-time power regression (95% R-squared) 05:57 1-sigma percentile moves 06:30 2-sigma percentile moves 08:30 3-sigma percentile moves 10:36 3-sigma+ percentile to get to Balaji's bet by mid-June 15:20 Likelihood of price moving above Balaji's trendline 18:55 Year end 2011 power trendline comparison (85% R-squared) 22:04 How rare is a 3-4 sigma move in price? Here we look at Balaji Srinivasan's $1 million price per bitcoin bet within 90 days, made last week. How extraordinary is such a price target? All-time trend coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 6.90E-18 * x ^ 588% Year end 2011 trend coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 2.52E-28 * x ^ 950% https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

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