“AGI by 2032 is extremely unlikely” by Yarrow Bouchard 🔸

Note: This is a somewhat rough post published as part of Draft Amnesty Week 2025. I very, very strongly believe there's essentially no chance of artificial general intelligence (AGI) being developed within the next 7 years.[1] Previously, I wrote a succinct list of reasons to doubt near-term AGI here. For example, it might come as a surprise that around three quarters of AI experts don’t think scaling up large language models (LLMs) will lead to AGI! For a more technical and theoretical view (from someone with better credentials), I highly recommend this recent video by an AI researcher that makes a strong case for skepticism of near-term AGI and of LLMs as a path to AGI: In this post, I will give more detailed arguments about why I think near-term AGI is so unlikely and why I think LLMs won't scale to AGI. Clarification of terms By essentially no chance, I mean less than the chance of Jill Stein running as the Green Party candidate in 2028 and winning the U.S. Presidency. Or, if you like, less than the chance Jill Stein had of winning the presidency in 2024. I mean it's an incredible long shot [...] ---Outline:(01:07) Clarification of terms(02:34) Some recent AI predictions that turned out to be wrong(03:38) Benchmarks do not test general intelligence(05:35) AI in the economy(07:36) AI vs. puzzles(08:12) Problems with scaling up LLMs(09:32) Agentic AI is unsuccessful(10:48) Conclusion --- First published: October 16th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sQSCqpm9Ymwiu8rdb/agi-by-2032-is-extremely-unlikely --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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