“How I expect TAI to impact developing countries” by Tax Geek

This is a Draft Amnesty Week draft. It may not be polished, up to my usual standards, fully thought through, or fully fact-checked.  Commenting and feedback guidelines: I'm posting this to get it out there and hopefully elicit discussion but am pretty uncertain about this post as I am not that familiar with global development and am also relatively new to AI safety. So I could be overlooking some important factors. I would welcome any feedback, particularly from those with experience working with developing countries. Summary TAI's impact on developing countries[1] is likely to look quite different from its impact on developed countries. Labour displacement will be slower, and there will be less fiscal pressures on developing governments. But impacts will be uneven, and countries that rely heavily on service exports and remittances are likely to lose out in the near term. Global inequality is likely to [...] ---Outline:(00:13) Summary(01:26) Assumptions and caveats(02:28) TAI's impact on developing countries is likely to look quite different(02:34) Less labour displacement(04:28) Less government fiscal pressures(05:43) But impacts will be uneven(07:21) Global inequality is likely to increase, but this won't necessarily worsen global welfare(09:20) TAI could produce global public goods(11:32) Weakening influence of liberal democracies --- First published: October 18th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4apMQAnv5wuystcfx/how-i-expect-tai-to-impact-developing-countries --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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