[Linkpost] “Video and transcript of talk on ‘Can goodness compete?’” by Joe_Carlsmith

This is a link post. (This is the video and transcript of a public talk I gave at Mox in San Francisco in July 2025, on long-term equilibria post-AGI. It's a longer version of the talk I gave at this workshop. The slides are also available here.) Introduction Thank you. Okay. Hi. Thanks for coming. Aims for this talk So: can goodness compete? It's a classic question, and it crops up constantly in a certain strand of futurism, so I'm going to try to analyze it and understand it more precisely. And in particular I want to distinguish between a few different variants, some of which are more fundamental problems than others. And then I want to try to hone in on what I see as the hardest version of the problem – and in particular, possible ways good values can have inherent disadvantages and competition with [...] ---Outline:(00:32) Introduction(00:51) Aims for this talk(02:06) Basic vibe(03:44) Lineage of concern(04:45) What I mean by goodness(07:38) What I mean by competition(09:35) Can \*humans\* compete?(11:30) Some distinctions(14:40) Alignment taxes(17:14) More fundamental variants(18:14) Negative sum dynamics(20:26) The strategy stealing assumption(21:38) Locust-like value systems(25:27) Other ways the strategy stealing assumption might fail(28:21) Addressing failures of the strategy stealing assumption(31:25) Is preventing/constraining competition in this way even possible?(33:31) Is preventing/constraining competition in this way desirable?(35:19) What is a locust world actually like?(36:29) Might a locust world be less bleak than this?(43:09) Current overall take(44:28) Poem: Witchgrass(46:47) Q&A--- First published: July 17th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ax258h7adna7xkNSz/video-and-transcript-of-talk-on-can-goodness-compete-1 Linkpost URL:https://joecarlsmith.substack.com/p/video-and-transcript-of-talk-on-can --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

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