“What I wish I had said about FTX” by AppliedDivinityStudies

The failure rate is not 0 The base rate of failure for startups is not 0: Of the 6000 companies Y Combinator has funded, only ~16 are public. This is the wrong reference class for FTX at a $32b valuation, but even amongst extremely valuable companies, failures are not uncommon: WeWork had a peak valuation of $47b Theranos had a peak valuation of $10b Lucid Motors had a peak valuation of $90b Virgin Galactic had a peak valuation of $14b Jull had a peak valuation of $38b Bolt had a peak valuation of $11b Magic Leap had a peak valuation of $13b That is only a handful of cases, but the reference class for startups worth over $10b is also pretty small. Maybe 45 private companies and another ~100 that have gone public. I'm playing pretty fast and loose here because the exact number isn't important, the odds [...] ---Outline:(00:04) The failure rate is not 0(03:54) Why does risk matter?(06:45) Looking back from today --- First published: October 31st, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/f5YfiCrunAHFeDpSQ/what-i-wish-i-had-said-about-ftx --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

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