The Demographic Transition

Are we heading toward a future underpopulation crisis instead of overpopulation?In this episode, George Cooper and Gerald Ashley explore the far-reaching effects of a global demographic shift already in motion.Fertility rates worldwide are plummeting below the replacement level—South Korea, for instance, is at just 0.7 children per woman, far below the 2.1 needed to sustain a population. This largely overlooked transition, overshadowed by politicians focus on short-term growth, is pushing us toward a 'demographic cliff' with profound implications.Aging populations, like the retiring baby boomers, are increasingly dependent on shrinking workforces, putting immense pressure on retirement systems. Fewer workers are left to support a growing number of retirees who need more healthcare and resist changes to pensions.For investors, this shift calls for a complete overhaul of asset allocation strategies.But there’s a silver lining: a naturally shrinking global population could ease resource scarcity and environmental strain. Labour shortages might also drive up wages over time, making it easier for families to form and potentially stabilizing birth rates at a sustainable point.Whether you’re planning for retirement, investing, or just curious about society’s future, this episode offers critical insights into one of the most transformative economic shifts we’ll face.This Episodes Book RecommendationsGerald went for:Material World: A Substantial Story of Our Past and Futureby Ed ConwayAnd George suggested:Gambling Man: The Wild Ride of Japan’s Masayoshi Son by Lionel Barber

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