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Excess Returns

Big Decline. Big Rally. What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next | Katie Stockton

02 Jun 2025

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, for a deep dive into the current state of the market through the lens of technical analysis. Katie walks us through her outlook on U.S. and international equities, key sector rotations, and the signals her indicators are sending about what’s next. We also explore the strategy behind her tactical ETF (TACK) and how investors can use chart-based insights to manage risk and identify opportunities in a complex macro environment.📌 Topics Covered:The current technical setup: secular bull, cyclical bearHow to interpret gaps, indicators, and moving averagesWeakening market breadth and its implicationsSector rotation: what’s working and what’s notThe outlook for international vs. U.S. marketsSentiment extremes and the "fear & greed" indicatorsTechnical setups in commodities: crude oil and goldThoughts on Bitcoin, the dollar, and bond spreadsHow the TACK ETF applies technical signals in practice

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