The Risks of the Rise of Passive Investing | Mike Green

In this episode of Excess Returns, Mike Green returns to dissect the structural transformation underway in public markets due to the rise of passive investing. He explains why “there’s no such thing as a passive investor,” how inelastic flows distort prices, and what it means for valuation, volatility, and the long-term sustainability of equity markets. From the math behind market multipliers to the policy distortions driving mega-cap dominance, Mike walks through the macro, micro, and behavioral implications of passive flows — and what investors and policymakers need to do about it.🔍 Topics Covered:Why passive investing isn’t truly passiveThe origins and impact of the inelastic market hypothesisHow passive flows distort price discoveryThe shift from mean reversion to mean expansion in marketsMultipliers and the mechanics of how flows drive pricesWhy market efficiency is breaking down at scaleThe hidden risks of passive-dominant market structureTarget date funds and their unintended consequencesThe fragility of valuations under passive dominanceThe problem with IPO scarcity and capital misallocationOptions strategies for convex tails and market driftWhy the Fed and regulators may act — and what could trigger itBitcoin and private markets as new flow-driven regimesHow policy and tax advantages have reshaped capitalism⏱️ Timestamps:00:00 – "There’s no such thing as a passive investor"01:05 – The origins of Mike’s work on passive flows03:00 – Bill Sharpe vs. Lasse Pedersen on passive flaws06:00 – Index rebalancing and the illusion of passivity07:00 – The rise of flow-based (demand-side) asset pricing10:00 – Why EMH broke down under scale12:00 – The human layer markets forgot14:30 – The math behind price multipliers (5x to 25x)17:00 – Market efficiency vs. market distortion20:00 – Meta, index drift, and fake efficiency23:00 – What individual investors should do25:00 – The Mag 7 and extreme multiplier effects27:00 – Options and convex tail risk management29:00 – Mike’s 2016 survey on marginal buying behavior31:00 – The shift from mean reversion to mean expansion33:30 – When the music stops: wealth-to-income dynamics35:00 – Theoretical crash under net withdrawals36:00 – Why the boomer selloff thesis is flawed39:00 – The overlooked risk: wealthy investors exiting actives41:00 – Public vs. private equity concentration43:00 – Why policy response is likely (and how it may look)46:00 – Political power vs. market dominance49:00 – Bitcoin, passive ETFs, and flow-driven pricing52:00 – Private equity in 401(k)s — implications and risks57:00 – The unintended outcomes of inflated valuations59:00 – The hollowing out of the public equity bid1:01:00 – How Vanguard’s 2015 rebalancing moved the market1:04:00 – Valuation opacity and future withdrawals1:07:00 – What Mike is working on now and next steps

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