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Chapter 1: What is the focus of this week's business debate?
This is the Saturday edition of Fear and Grieve, business news you can use. I'm Sean Aylmer and good morning, Adam Lang. Good morning, Sean. Now, our Saturday show is all about two of us, each nominating what we think is the biggest story of the week, the most remarkable story, a mystery category, and our favourite story.
Normally, of course, it's a battle between Michael and I, but given that he's gallivanting along the west coast of the US at the moment, Today's battle is between Adam and I, and of course, we need a judge. And no disrespect to you, Adam, this week we actually have a decent one with serious journalism credentials to boot. Welcome to the Saturday edition, Juliette Sarli from Ausbiz.
Good morning.
Chapter 2: What criteria are used to judge the biggest story of the week?
Sure. Good morning, Adam. Oh, gosh, this is tough.
Chapter 3: What impact did the Reserve Bank's interest rate hike have?
Big boots to fill.
Well, no, they're Adam's boots. They're not that big. Maybe to help you out, Adam, you can inform Juliet what your arbitrary categories are in judging. for Weekend Chat.
You bet. So, Juliet, please feel free to use or ignore as you see fit. But I tend to go towards what is the story with the biggest economic impact? And feeding into that, obviously, I mean, I'm preaching to a journalist here, so I feel bad doing it, but topicality and timeliness, right?
But then I'd like to throw in a bit of my subjective bias, which in my case is anything with reform in it is typically going to get a thumbs up. And more for Michael than for Sean or me, but melodrama. If you can bring some pizzazz to the story, all the better for it.
Is there only one story this week? I'm in the RBA. Come on. I've already picked the winner.
Oh. Gone early.
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Chapter 4: How are geopolitical events influencing market trends?
Gone very early. I can see I'm not going to like you very much, Juliet.
I'm breathing a little easier already. Sorry, I didn't know who had that one.
I'm not going to like you very much. Let's just start. Biggest story of the week. Adam, you go first. I think I'm in trouble if you go first. Give me what Juliet just said.
I think, just independently, of course, it has to be interest rates. The Reserve Bank...
Sly dog.
Of course. Of course.
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Chapter 5: What significant corporate scandals are being discussed?
I was always going to go with that for my story, Sean. Always. The Reserve Bank, as we know, lifted official rate for the third time this year to 4.35%. And that adds about $90 a month to the cost of a $600 mortgage. That's bad enough. But then the bank and its governor, Michelle Bullock, made it very clear that there could be another rate hike on the way. So the pain may not be over.
And this is because inflation is not yet under control and they predict it won't be sometime until late next year that it could be. So obviously, high energy prices have pushed up costs, particularly in recent times. But even before the Middle East conflict, inflation was on the rise. Nowadays, members of the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Board vote on the decision and we get to know that vote.
And eight voted for inflation. and only one against this one. Last time round in March, it was 5-4 and four against. So the bank has actually become even more emphatic in between meetings.
Chapter 6: How is the Australian gas reservation policy affecting the market?
And obviously for me, Juliet, this is the biggest story of the week.
And maybe for Juliet too, judging from what we've heard so far. I haven't had my go yet, Juliet.
You haven't had your go. I'm not judging. I'm just going to say, you know, I've got skin in the game here because I was at the press conference. But you give it your best, Sean.
Yes.
What surprises me, right? One thing I have thought about this, everyone's saying it's going to be a line ball decision and it came in an 8-1, whereas the previous one was 5-4.
I actually think I'm surprised that one voted against it because the four people who voted against it in March were proven so wrong, like they needed a rate rise in March, that surely you're walking a little sheepish going, I was only joking back then. We're going to go for one this time around. So I'm surprised one, anyway. Juliet, was the press conference fun?
It was.
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Chapter 7: What are the latest developments in electric vehicle sales in Australia?
It was fun. I think I was telling you earlier in the week, I asked a little bit of a cheeky question because I did ask, you know, she always says no forward guidance given, they say.
But I did ask whether or not these podcasts, the fireside chat in New York that Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser had been given was some form of forward guidance, given that money markets seem to have been pricing in the rate hikes after he spoke both those times. So we weren't really that surprised that they did hike. And, of course, she says no forward guidance.
But I did ask at the end of the question, I said, if you are giving forward guidance, would you like to come on my show on Ausbiz? She politely smiled and said, thank you very much for the offer, which I think I said to you, Sean. Very generous. I took as a yes, you know, we'll see.
I imagine we'll see her in the next couple of weeks. Well, I like that, no forward guidance. The only person who thinks it's not forward guidance is Michelle Bullock because markets respond to everything she or Andrew Hauser says.
I mean, come on. And it's kind of part of their job as well, right, to communicate so that people are not shocked when their interest rates go up.
Many years ago, of course, there were a few journalists.
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Chapter 8: What tribute is paid to Ted Turner in this episode?
We won't mention Roskin's name, Alan Mitchell's name, any of those people. And this is pre the communications we have today. And whatever they wrote on Monday seemed to happen on the Tuesday. Anyway, moving on. Look, good story. Very provincial, though, Adam. Very, very provincial. This is an international show we have here.
We had serious signs this week that we could have some sort of deal in the Middle East. Now, admittedly, by the end of the week, it was less serious. Clear? But the week did begin with Donald Trump saying the US would escort boats through the Strait of Hormuz. He paused that after about, I don't know, what, 30 seconds, a minute? He said, no, no, I changed my mind on that one.
But his argument was that the Iranians wanted to negotiate, so he paused that escorting boats through. There were real signs of a breakthrough between the two sides by the end of the week. Now, Everything with Donald Trump is unclear, so hard to know how much to read in it. But we seem to be at a point in that conflict where it is make or break time.
It just can't sit in this nowhere land for too long. Equity markets clearly think that... there is going to be a breakthrough. They saw it. Wall Street hit a new record, although they did come off later in the week or late in the week. The local market jumped a couple of percent in two sessions. It then came back off on Friday. Aussie dollar pushed back above 72 US cents.
Enjoy that, Michael, if you're listening, spending your Aussie dollars over there in the US. The price of Brent crude fell back towards 100 US dollars a barrel. Okay, anything out of the White House at the moment seems a little problematic. It has done for a couple of months, but there are just signs that this week was the week where it's really make or break.
Like it all explodes or there's a deal done and there's The favourite on that is still a deal done because gas prices in the US at $4 a gallon is really hurting Donald Trump and the Republicans. So in terms of the biggest story of the week, Adam's given you some dodgy story from the Reserve Bank that you happen to like that we knew was going to happen.
I, on the other hand, Juliet, have gone big picture. Not quite man to people, but you know.
Yeah, you know, we talked earlier in the week about fatigue over the Middle East story and how markets sort of are trading past it. You don't remember that.
No, no, I don't remember that at all.
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