How Trump’s Transactional Nature Led To The Ceasefire

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Dave Davies 0:00
This is Fresh Air.
Donald Trump 0:01
I'm Dave Davies.
Dave Davies 0:10
This week began with outbursts of celebration as the last 20 surviving Israeli hostages in Gaza were returned to their families and nearly 2,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons were released. That was all part of the ceasefire agreement which finally halted two years of war in Gaza, the conflict sparked by the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Our guest today, Aaron David Miller, spent years in the U.S. State Department trying to forge peace between Israel and the Palestinians, working under Democratic and Republican presidents. He says that in bringing this ceasefire agreement to fruition, President Donald Trump dealt with Israeli leaders in ways no other president has. He says Trump's transactional approach to politics and diplomacy probably helped in this case.
Dave Davies 0:59
Today we'll look at how the ceasefire came to be and consider the challenges that remain for Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Aaron David Miller spent 25 years in the State Department, playing a key role in the Oslo peace process in the 1990s.

What events led to the recent ceasefire in Gaza?

Dave Davies 1:16
He's received the State Department's Distinguished Superior and Meritorious Honor Awards. He's now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the author of five books. We recorded our conversation yesterday. Aaron David Miller, welcome to Fresh Air. David, it's great to be here with you. I want to begin with an excerpt of President Trump's speech at the Israeli Knesset on Monday. Let's listen.
Donald Trump 1:42
This is not only the end of a war. This is the end of the age of terror and death and the beginning of the age of faith and hope and of God. It's the start of a grand concord and lasting harmony for Israel and all the nations of what will soon be a truly magnificent region. I believe that so strongly. This is the historic dawn of A new Middle East.
Dave Davies 2:12
And that's President Trump with a pretty expansive view of the accomplishment here. I mean, you've said this isn't even really a peace agreement, right? What is it?
Aaron David Miller 2:22
Look, the reality, this is not the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. This is not the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty. Agreements succeed or fail when they're tested over time. This is not even a peace agreement. What this is... and I don't want to take anything away from what this is, is a remarkable moment. I worked on this process largely in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations since the 1980s. Any agreement between Israelis and Palestinians, let alone one between two combatants who are pledged to one another's mutual destruction, is an extraordinary achievement. What this is... is a chance after two years of Israelis and Palestinians visiting a parade of horrific horrors on one another. What this is, is the possibility of ending the war in Gaza and maybe building a broader bridge so that Israelis and Palestinians can find a pathway forward.
Dave Davies 3:20
Right. Since the announcement last Friday, Hamas did release the living hostages and Israel did cease offensive military operations and withdrew behind a designated line in Gaza. We'll talk about the longer term prospects in a bit. But do you think that these conditions, I mean, the cessation of hostilities will hold over the coming weeks?
Aaron David Miller 3:42
You know, I do, and I usually don't, having failed largely over a quarter of a century in helping to create circumstances for conflict-ending agreement between Israel and Palestinians. I usually default to the negative on this. But I think, and it's fascinating to consider...

How did Trump's transactional approach influence the ceasefire?

Aaron David Miller 4:01
what the first phase actually promises. It contains, in my judgment, the three basic elements that, in fact, could create a foundation. And those elements coincide with the reasons, the international community, the region, the United States. cared about Gaza beginning on October 7. First, it does address conclusively the issue of the remaining hostages, 20 men alive who have been returned, 28 hostages who are no longer alive. Only some have been returned. And that's going to be an issue. Whether it's a deal breaker, I doubt it. But it will be an issue.

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