Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Weekender: We’re back, baby!

09 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The outlook for growth in 2026 is almost the same as for 2025. But the similarities end there, as growth in 2025 was imbalanced in a number of ways an...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Fade 4Q momentum slide

06 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the 2026 inflation outlook and what we are learning from the latest C...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Kicking the tires

13 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Kicking the tires After two weeks off, the Weekender picks back up with a chat about the data in recent weeks and a probing of the upside and downside...

Global Data Pod: Steppe Forward into Oasis: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan 2026 outlook

08 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have captured the attention of global investors in 2026. In this episode, Anatoliy Shal, Khamza Sharifzoda, and Nicolaie Ale...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Giving thanks for data

22 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The data of activity past has begun. This week’s payroll report is only one month and stale (Sept), but on the margin tempers some downside risk. Co...

Global Data Pod Weekender: The tick-tock of data watching

14 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The balance of risks has been buffeted by resilient spending and survey data (the tick) and weak labor market data (and the tock). After a tick of sol...

Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t handle the truth!

07 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Testing views, with continued uncertainties around the US labor market exacerbated by the government shutdown offset by better business surveys and im...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Stuck at 3%

04 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global CPI reports and the implications for central banks. We also delve deeper into the topic ...

Global Data Pod Edge: Africa is building back better

03 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Gbolahan Taiwo and Katie Marney discuss the improving outlook for African economies. Fiscal, monetary and FX reforms, rebuilt external reserves, impro...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Views from the Upside Down

31 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

After two weeks off, the Weekender returns with an exploration of the upside and downside risks to the growth outlook and the implications of each for...

Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t get there from here

17 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Debate over the growth picture continues with global expenditure data through September showing resilience but the labor market a key area of weakness...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Just how symmetric are risks, really?

10 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A case is made that the US floor is low but the ceiling is high, while the range for the rest of the world is narrower. A counter argument is that the...

Global Data Pod Weekender: If data falls in the woods…

03 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The US shutdown leaves us with limited visibility at an important juncture in the global outlook. There are reasons to believe that the factors of lif...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Strong but shaky growth

26 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The  global expansion is now tracking a strong 3Q outturn, led by a robust increase in the US. The contrast of this strength with a near-stall in glo...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Food and energy add to sticky core

26 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the key drivers shaping the outlook, and implications f...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: The growth effects of AI capex

23 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean...

Global Data Pod Weekender: A riddle wrapped in a mystery

19 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get...

Global Data Pod Weekender: And if not now, when?

12 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The debate builds over the resilience of the expansion, the health of the labor market, and the durability of the consumers. At the same time, questio...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Weak payrolls, more Fed

05 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Although this week’s business surveys sent an upbeat growth signal, the message from labor market reports in the US and elsewhere dominates risk ass...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Resilience and discontent

29 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Despite a softening US labor market and a downshift in global industry and trade, the global economy looks resilient with the US tracking above-trend ...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Additional renovations on C-street

08 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed look...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: The shifting nature of China’s global inflation drag

08 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariff...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Downside risks re-emerge

01 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week...

Global Data Pod: EM capital flows discontented we remain

29 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yi...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Fake it till you make it

25 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate i...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Inflation, politics, and central banking

18 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed.   Speakers: Bruce Ka...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: June 2025

17 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core infla...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me count the ways

11 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign ou...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Taking stock at midyear

27 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in for...

Global Data Pod Weekender: You can get there from here

20 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very di...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Gauging the coming slowdown

13 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The drags on global growth related to the trade war are building but there remains considerable uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the com...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Tariff impact delayed but not denied

12 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest o...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Identification in the time of front-loading

06 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is tra...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Not so fast on the off-ramp

30 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss their view that hopes of a court-led off-ramp to the US war on trade are overstated. They maintain tha...

Global Data Pod Weekender: A whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on

24 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That ...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain? No way

16 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its ...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Threat assessment

09 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The hard activity data continue to show resilient growth in the first four months of the year. We maintain our recession call owing to 1) front-loadin...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Transitioning

02 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the activity data continues to show resilience, an encouraging development that will help weather the coming U...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

30 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US an...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain, long-term stain

25 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The hard data continue to highlight strength but it increasingly looks like we are reaching peak front-loading. The survey data are falling faster an...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: US-China: cost advantage and mutual dependence

24 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on t...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Turn of the screw

17 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the goods sector activity boomed through 1Q but the signal to take is far less clear, particularly as sentimen...

Global Data Pod Weekender: When elephants fight

11 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the post-Liberation Day back-peddling that has led some to breathe a sigh of relief....

Global Data Pod Weekender: That’s gonna leave a mark

04 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A dramatic shift from the Trump administration toward less business-friendly policies leads us to revise up our already above-consensus recession odds...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Debating the R word

28 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressi...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

26 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi joins Bruce Kasman to discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation Monitor and how the incoming data and tariff news are sh...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Front-loading

21 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Risks to the global expansion are elevated in the face of a broadening trade war, but incoming news highlights a still underlying resilient expansion....

Global Data Pod Weekender: Fear is the expansion killer

14 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on February sentiment readings. Absent ...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Trump sees his shadow, 4 more weeks of tariff exemptions

07 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A tumultuous week in the US trade war leaves the world only with modestly higher tariffs on China but more downside risk. While tariffs on USMCA-compl...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Sticky inflation meets tariffs

04 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the key takeaways from our latest Global Inflation Monitor and inflation risks...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Some Unpleasant Tariff Arithmetic

03 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci, of the US Economics team, discuss their latest Research Note on the challenges for meeting the many disparate objectiv...

Global Data Pod Weekender: When worlds collide

28 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We see more momentum loss in the data and question how much is noise and how much is signal; we also question what that signal is if any. This then se...

Global Data Pod EM Edge: Collateral Damage

26 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Nicolaie, Katie, Gbolahan and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge from policy actions taken by the Trump administration around FDI, trade and aid f...

Global Data Pod Weekender: How you like me now?

21 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The cyclical momentum into year-end is losing some steam at the start of the year—how much so is debatable. Uncertainties around US policy are the k...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but soon and for the rest of your life

14 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The latest data show downside surprises to growth and upside surprises to inflation. However, with so much noise at the start of the year, it is hard ...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Don't look down

07 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how the global expansion remains on solid footing for now. According to this week’s January surveys,...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: A testing time for core inflation

05 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Tariffs could lift global inflation this year, but business cycle dynamics are likely to play an important role in driving core inflation performance....

Global Data Pod Weekender: Exceptionalism that disproves the rule

31 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In a week of news regarding ongoing resilient growth and still-solid inflation, our key call of a Trump-lite policy outcome this year is being severel...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: North America’s Fraught Tariff Adventure

28 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Michael Hanson, senior US and Canadian economist, and Gabriel Lozano, Head of Mexico Economics, discuss their latest Research Note on the Trump admini...

Global Data Pod Weekender: All day long in fog and wind

24 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

While absent of immediate trade war, the start of the Trump administration brought little clarity to the US policy path ahead, and we do not change ou...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Let the games begin

17 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Monday’s Inauguration Day in the US will not be a lifting of the policy fog that many are hoping for but rather just the start of a broad set of swe...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: More Trump tariffs

14 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Jahangir Aziz joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for US trade policy, its impact on the rest of the world and how views on tariffs have evo...

Global Data Pod Weekender: The known unknowns

10 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Recent data support our long-standing view for resilient growth, elevated sticky inflation, and constrained central bank easing. The known unknowns ar...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Making Asia vulnerable again

09 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Sajjid Chinoy joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for EM Asian economies in 2025. The tech cycle upswing, underpinned by AI-related demand, ...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Testing time

03 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A number of elements of our high-for-long rate narrative will be tested by data and policy guidance this quarter. We will receive greater clarity on t...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Making a list, checking it twice

13 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Global industry is getting a boost from firming final demand. We are bullish for manufacturing in the coming months—to be supported by next week’s...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: EM-China dependency amid trade wars

11 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi, Vinicius Moreira & Tingting Ge. Despite a slowing in China’s headline GDP growth post-pandemic, Emerging Market (EM) commodity...

Global Data Pod Weekender: The kindness of strangers

06 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The latest data support our call for resilient, albeit divergent, growth. The PMIs for last month show global GDP tracking a strong, above potential p...

Global Data Pod: Western European Economic and Rates Outlook 2025 - Storm Clouds Gathering

26 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Ravi Balakrishnan and Francis Diamond discuss a deep dive into the growth, inflation, and rates outlook for the Euro area, UK, and Sweden, and various...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

26 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their key takeaways from the October CPI reports and the outlook for the coming year. Global core inflatio...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Frog in the jacuzzi

22 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We published our year-ahead outlook this week and discuss the key points in the latest Weekender. Against a backdrop of our high-for-long soft-landing...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Greater China 2025 macro outlook

22 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Haibin Zhu, joined by Grace Ng and Tingting Ge, will discuss what the red sweep and tariff war 2.0 risk means for China, and implications on Taiwan an...

Global Data Pod EM Edge: Don’t judge a book by its cover

20 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Katie, Nicolaie and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge to the potential policy shifts of a second Trump administration. EM Edge would seem the mos...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Vibe check on deck

15 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The combination of resurgent consumer spending and persistently sticky inflation near 3% is challenging consensus calls for Goldilocks. Next week’s ...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Diversity, exceptionalism, and inflation

08 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the US election is a material shock to the baseline, but one that reinforces our view that pushed back against...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Anticipation forward points the view

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Ahead of the all-important US election, the data tracking at the start of 4Q is mixed but supportive of a resilient expansion. A noisy October US labo...

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – October Jobs Report Recap

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the October jobs report. Speakers: Michael Feroli Samant...

Global Data Pod EM Edge: Differentiation is the name of the game

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Katie, Nicolaie, Gbolahan and Steven discuss takeaways for EM Edge economies from last week’s IMF/World Bank meetings. Investors started the year re...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Forecasters love company

26 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The JPMorgan conference delivered a consensus around a Goldilocks macro scenario even as participants say US election outcomes look like a coin-toss. ...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

24 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the September CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for...

Global Data Pod Weekender: More than a feeling

18 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A number of recent developments serve to reduce downside growth risks globally. In part this reflects strong US demand indicators and substantial fron...

Global Data Pod EM Edge: Checking the compass

15 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Katie, Nicolaie and Steven discuss the latest economic trends in the EM Edge. Inflation for most EM Edge economies, outside of Africa, have converged ...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Respect the tails

11 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The improving US activity data has trimmed the downside tail, reinforcing views for a Goldilocks-type soft-landing. However, with core inflation runni...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: China’s policy shift

10 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Haibin Zhu and Nora Szentivanyi discuss China’s latest policy easing measures and what to expect in coming weeks and months. Three aspects of the up...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Schrödinger’s frog

04 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A much better than expected US payroll report, along with a quick end to the port strike, shift the risk distribution away from recession. Whether thi...

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – Sept Jobs Recap

04 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the Sept jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on Oc...

Global Data Pod EM Edge: US sunshine

01 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Growth was relatively strong across the EM Edge economies in 2Q. Nicolaie, Steven and Katie debate the influence that diverging growth risks in US, Ch...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Fish tales

28 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A set of divergences in the global economy raise tail risks to the expansion. While we see numerous reasons for a soft-landing, next week’s PMIs and...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

24 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi and Greg Fuzesi discuss their takeaways from the August CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global infl...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Stepping down

20 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Bruce Kasman and Jay Barry discuss how the Fed met their expectations for a 50bp rate cut as it shifted its assessment of risk while not materially ad...

Global Data Pod Weekender: A consequential week

14 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how the Fed will take center stage in a week marked by a number of significant central bank decisions ...

Global Data Pod EM Edge: Snakes and ladders

10 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Speakers Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research  Steven Palacio, EM, Ec...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Risky business

06 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The latest PMIs reinforce the resilience of the global expansion, even if still imbalanced across sectors. While the US has led with the strongest rec...

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – August Jobs Report Recap

06 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the August jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on ...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

22 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the July CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the ...

Global Data Pod Weekender: Not so fast

16 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Recession risks faded a bit this week as a stronger US consumer and a dip in initial claims combined with a constructive CPI report that gives a green...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: China’s economic challenges and policy dilemma

15 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Haibin Zhu joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss China’s economic and policy outlook amid mounting downside risks to growth. Following the latest set of...

Global Data Pod Weekender: The US is still exceptional

09 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how it has been a volatile week in financial markets, with tension between what we assess to be a mode...

Global Data Pod Research Rap: What a faster Fed easing means for EM Asia

08 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Sajjid Chinoy and Seok Gil Park join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the implications of a more front-loaded Fed easing path for EM Asia. Soft core inflat...

Global Data Pod Weekender: A bad start to the second half

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The week started and ended soft. On Monday, the global manufacturing PMI tumbled in July, erasing this year’s gain and pointing to a stall in global...