Global Data Pod
Episodes
Global Data Pod Weekender: Save poor Bob if you please
30 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The global economy is approaching a crossroad as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the threat of reaching operational stress levels is now only ...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Headline surges, core moderates
28 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Mike Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the outlook for inflation and central bank...
Global Data Pod Weekender: How bad could it get?
25 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
With the reversal of last week’s joint statement on opening the Strait of Hormuz and yet one more week closer to damaging quantity constraints, we r...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Much ado about oil
17 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
While not out of the woods, the tail risk around the Middle East shock has faded materially for now. This brings the conversation back to tracking the...
Global Data Pod Weekender: On the strait and harrow
10 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The fragile cease-fire has not opened the strait or even ended hostilities fully, but the hint of an end keeps our outlook on a path for energy prices...
Global Data Pod Weekender: All’s unclear that ends unclear
03 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The data in hand continue to paint a picture of solid momentum in activity at the start of the year. However, while today’s US payroll report was en...
Global Data Pod Weekender: That's gonna leave a mark
27 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The energy price shock is finishing its fourth week and the risks of material macro damage are rising. Until then the baseline of Brent oil prices tha...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Another week into the unknown
21 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Strong momentum in 1Q leads to upward revisions but the ongoing Middle East conflict poses a larger downside to growth this year. Despite the growth h...
Global Data Watch Weekender: Strait no chaser
13 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The central risk to the outlook is whether oil begins flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Baseline views are background features, with scenarios of ...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
12 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Michael Hanson and Allan Monks to discuss global inflation developments heading into the Iran conf...
Global Data Watch Weekender: Pricing in conflict
07 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The unexpected intensity of the war on Iran has rattled energy markets, threatening the global expansion. Timing and duration are as important as magn...
Global Data Watch Weekender: What could go wrong?
27 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Incoming data support our call for a recoupling of weak job growth to solid GDP gains, driven by a fading of business caution. Beyond this near-term t...
Global Data Pod: Rare Earths
26 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
J.P. Morgan Global Research recently launched the Industry and Policy Thematics group. The aim of this group is to provide timely analysis of economy-...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Start me up
20 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The year is starting with solid global momentum. Fading caution, firming in employment, signs of a broadening in non-tech related capex are prompting ...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Some signal, a lot of noise
13 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
There are significant elements of noise in this week’s key reports but we feel there is enough signal in these readings to increase confidence that ...
Global Data Watch Weekender: It’s the job market, stupid
06 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Fading caution that leads to firming global labor markets is the central rotation to keep the expansion going—away from balance sheets last year and...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
04 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest global inflation developments. While fading last quarter’...
Global Data Watch Weekender: Look inna yuh crystal ball, culture man
30 Jan 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Strong global momentum at the start of the year is coming alongside rising commodity prices and a falling dollar. Is there a signal there? Can the EM ...
Global Data Watch Weekend: The shadow knows
23 Jan 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Further year-end confirmation of a robust global consumer (outside China) supports the call that the expansion is weathering the various US policy ris...
Global Data Watch Weekender: The more things change…
16 Jan 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Resilience in consumer spending has been an important foundation for growth in 2025. Absent a pickup in hiring, this cannot be sustained. Is the stage...
Global Data Pod Weekender: We’re back, baby!
09 Jan 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The outlook for growth in 2026 is almost the same as for 2025. But the similarities end there, as growth in 2025 was imbalanced in a number of ways an...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Fade 4Q momentum slide
06 Jan 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the 2026 inflation outlook and what we are learning from the latest C...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Kicking the tires
13 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Kicking the tires After two weeks off, the Weekender picks back up with a chat about the data in recent weeks and a probing of the upside and downside...
Global Data Pod: Steppe Forward into Oasis: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan 2026 outlook
08 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have captured the attention of global investors in 2026. In this episode, Anatoliy Shal, Khamza Sharifzoda, and Nicolaie Ale...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Giving thanks for data
22 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The data of activity past has begun. This week’s payroll report is only one month and stale (Sept), but on the margin tempers some downside risk. Co...
Global Data Pod Weekender: The tick-tock of data watching
14 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The balance of risks has been buffeted by resilient spending and survey data (the tick) and weak labor market data (and the tock). After a tick of sol...
Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t handle the truth!
07 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Testing views, with continued uncertainties around the US labor market exacerbated by the government shutdown offset by better business surveys and im...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Stuck at 3%
04 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global CPI reports and the implications for central banks. We also delve deeper into the topic ...
Global Data Pod Edge: Africa is building back better
03 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Gbolahan Taiwo and Katie Marney discuss the improving outlook for African economies. Fiscal, monetary and FX reforms, rebuilt external reserves, impro...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Views from the Upside Down
31 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
After two weeks off, the Weekender returns with an exploration of the upside and downside risks to the growth outlook and the implications of each for...
Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t get there from here
17 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Debate over the growth picture continues with global expenditure data through September showing resilience but the labor market a key area of weakness...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Just how symmetric are risks, really?
10 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A case is made that the US floor is low but the ceiling is high, while the range for the rest of the world is narrower. A counter argument is that the...
Global Data Pod Weekender: If data falls in the woods…
03 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The US shutdown leaves us with limited visibility at an important juncture in the global outlook. There are reasons to believe that the factors of lif...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Strong but shaky growth
26 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The global expansion is now tracking a strong 3Q outturn, led by a robust increase in the US. The contrast of this strength with a near-stall in glo...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Food and energy add to sticky core
26 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the key drivers shaping the outlook, and implications f...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: The growth effects of AI capex
23 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean...
Global Data Pod Weekender: A riddle wrapped in a mystery
19 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get...
Global Data Pod Weekender: And if not now, when?
12 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The debate builds over the resilience of the expansion, the health of the labor market, and the durability of the consumers. At the same time, questio...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Weak payrolls, more Fed
05 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Although this week’s business surveys sent an upbeat growth signal, the message from labor market reports in the US and elsewhere dominates risk ass...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Resilience and discontent
29 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Despite a softening US labor market and a downshift in global industry and trade, the global economy looks resilient with the US tracking above-trend ...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Additional renovations on C-street
08 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed look...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: The shifting nature of China’s global inflation drag
08 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariff...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Downside risks re-emerge
01 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week...
Global Data Pod: EM capital flows discontented we remain
29 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yi...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Fake it till you make it
25 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate i...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Inflation, politics, and central banking
18 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed. Â Speakers: Bruce Ka...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: June 2025
17 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core infla...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me count the ways
11 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign ou...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Taking stock at midyear
27 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in for...
Global Data Pod Weekender: You can get there from here
20 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very di...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Gauging the coming slowdown
13 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The drags on global growth related to the trade war are building but there remains considerable uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the com...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Tariff impact delayed but not denied
12 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest o...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Identification in the time of front-loading
06 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is tra...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Not so fast on the off-ramp
30 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss their view that hopes of a court-led off-ramp to the US war on trade are overstated. They maintain tha...
Global Data Pod Weekender: A whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on
24 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That ...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain? No way
16 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its ...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Threat assessment
09 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The hard activity data continue to show resilient growth in the first four months of the year. We maintain our recession call owing to 1) front-loadin...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Transitioning
02 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the activity data continues to show resilience, an encouraging development that will help weather the coming U...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
30 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US an...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain, long-term stain
25 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The hard data continue to highlight strength but it increasingly looks like we are reaching peak front-loading. The survey data are falling faster an...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: US-China: cost advantage and mutual dependence
24 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on t...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Turn of the screw
17 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the goods sector activity boomed through 1Q but the signal to take is far less clear, particularly as sentimen...
Global Data Pod Weekender: When elephants fight
11 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the post-Liberation Day back-peddling that has led some to breathe a sigh of relief....
Global Data Pod Weekender: That’s gonna leave a mark
04 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A dramatic shift from the Trump administration toward less business-friendly policies leads us to revise up our already above-consensus recession odds...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Debating the R word
28 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressi...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
26 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi joins Bruce Kasman to discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation Monitor and how the incoming data and tariff news are sh...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Front-loading
21 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Risks to the global expansion are elevated in the face of a broadening trade war, but incoming news highlights a still underlying resilient expansion....
Global Data Pod Weekender: Fear is the expansion killer
14 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on February sentiment readings. Absent ...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Trump sees his shadow, 4 more weeks of tariff exemptions
07 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A tumultuous week in the US trade war leaves the world only with modestly higher tariffs on China but more downside risk. While tariffs on USMCA-compl...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Sticky inflation meets tariffs
04 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the key takeaways from our latest Global Inflation Monitor and inflation risks...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Some Unpleasant Tariff Arithmetic
03 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci, of the US Economics team, discuss their latest Research Note on the challenges for meeting the many disparate objectiv...
Global Data Pod Weekender: When worlds collide
28 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We see more momentum loss in the data and question how much is noise and how much is signal; we also question what that signal is if any. This then se...
Global Data Pod EM Edge: Collateral Damage
26 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Nicolaie, Katie, Gbolahan and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge from policy actions taken by the Trump administration around FDI, trade and aid f...
Global Data Pod Weekender: How you like me now?
21 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The cyclical momentum into year-end is losing some steam at the start of the year—how much so is debatable. Uncertainties around US policy are the k...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but soon and for the rest of your life
14 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The latest data show downside surprises to growth and upside surprises to inflation. However, with so much noise at the start of the year, it is hard ...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Don't look down
07 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how the global expansion remains on solid footing for now. According to this week’s January surveys,...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: A testing time for core inflation
05 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Tariffs could lift global inflation this year, but business cycle dynamics are likely to play an important role in driving core inflation performance....
Global Data Pod Weekender: Exceptionalism that disproves the rule
31 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In a week of news regarding ongoing resilient growth and still-solid inflation, our key call of a Trump-lite policy outcome this year is being severel...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: North America’s Fraught Tariff Adventure
28 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Michael Hanson, senior US and Canadian economist, and Gabriel Lozano, Head of Mexico Economics, discuss their latest Research Note on the Trump admini...
Global Data Pod Weekender: All day long in fog and wind
24 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
While absent of immediate trade war, the start of the Trump administration brought little clarity to the US policy path ahead, and we do not change ou...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Let the games begin
17 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Monday’s Inauguration Day in the US will not be a lifting of the policy fog that many are hoping for but rather just the start of a broad set of swe...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: More Trump tariffs
14 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jahangir Aziz joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for US trade policy, its impact on the rest of the world and how views on tariffs have evo...
Global Data Pod Weekender: The known unknowns
10 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Recent data support our long-standing view for resilient growth, elevated sticky inflation, and constrained central bank easing. The known unknowns ar...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Making Asia vulnerable again
09 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Sajjid Chinoy joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for EM Asian economies in 2025. The tech cycle upswing, underpinned by AI-related demand, ...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Testing time
03 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A number of elements of our high-for-long rate narrative will be tested by data and policy guidance this quarter. We will receive greater clarity on t...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Making a list, checking it twice
13 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Global industry is getting a boost from firming final demand. We are bullish for manufacturing in the coming months—to be supported by next week’s...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: EM-China dependency amid trade wars
11 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi, Vinicius Moreira & Tingting Ge. Despite a slowing in China’s headline GDP growth post-pandemic, Emerging Market (EM) commodity...
Global Data Pod Weekender: The kindness of strangers
06 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The latest data support our call for resilient, albeit divergent, growth. The PMIs for last month show global GDP tracking a strong, above potential p...
Global Data Pod: Western European Economic and Rates Outlook 2025 - Storm Clouds Gathering
26 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Ravi Balakrishnan and Francis Diamond discuss a deep dive into the growth, inflation, and rates outlook for the Euro area, UK, and Sweden, and various...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
26 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their key takeaways from the October CPI reports and the outlook for the coming year. Global core inflatio...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Frog in the jacuzzi
22 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We published our year-ahead outlook this week and discuss the key points in the latest Weekender. Against a backdrop of our high-for-long soft-landing...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Greater China 2025 macro outlook
22 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Haibin Zhu, joined by Grace Ng and Tingting Ge, will discuss what the red sweep and tariff war 2.0 risk means for China, and implications on Taiwan an...
Global Data Pod EM Edge: Don’t judge a book by its cover
20 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Katie, Nicolaie and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge to the potential policy shifts of a second Trump administration. EM Edge would seem the mos...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Vibe check on deck
15 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The combination of resurgent consumer spending and persistently sticky inflation near 3% is challenging consensus calls for Goldilocks. Next week’s ...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Diversity, exceptionalism, and inflation
08 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the US election is a material shock to the baseline, but one that reinforces our view that pushed back against...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Anticipation forward points the view
01 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Ahead of the all-important US election, the data tracking at the start of 4Q is mixed but supportive of a resilient expansion. A noisy October US labo...
Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – October Jobs Report Recap
01 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the October jobs report. Speakers: Michael Feroli Samant...
Global Data Pod EM Edge: Differentiation is the name of the game
01 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Katie, Nicolaie, Gbolahan and Steven discuss takeaways for EM Edge economies from last week’s IMF/World Bank meetings. Investors started the year re...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Forecasters love company
26 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The JPMorgan conference delivered a consensus around a Goldilocks macro scenario even as participants say US election outcomes look like a coin-toss. ...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
24 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the September CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for...