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Chapter 1: What is the U.S.-Iran peace deal about?
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This is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Celia Hatton, and in the early hours of Monday, the 15th of June, these are our main stories.
Chapter 2: What immediate changes will occur after the peace agreement?
Finally, a deal's been reached to end the U.S. war with Iran with the announcement of a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday. But how solid is this agreement? We have analysis from our correspondents in Jerusalem and London and from the BBC Persian service. Also in this podcast, a game at the Football World Cup that started as a slow burn but became a second-half thriller.
And the 17-year-old whose school project has come to the attention of Vladimir Putin.
It's unprecedented. They've never sanctioned a high schooler before. And so it's clear that my work exposing their currency laundering schemes has touched a nerve.
We start with a triumphant social media post from Donald Trump. Let the oil flow, he wrote. He then tells ships of the world to start your engines. The US and Iran have confirmed they've agreed to a deal to end their conflict that began just over three months ago.
The text of what's been agreed hasn't officially been released, but both sides have indicated they'll lift their blockades on the Strait of Hormuz. a move that could allow ships to pass through it again. Representatives from both countries are scheduled to meet in Switzerland for a formal signing ceremony on Friday.
On state TV, the Iranian deputy foreign minister, Kazem Garibabadi, had this to say after the text had been finalised. Two immediate developments were supposed to take place and will take place, starting last night on the early hours of Monday. First, the immediate and permanent end of the war and military operations on various fronts, including in Lebanon.
as you saw the statement announced by the Prime Minister of Pakistan, explicitly referred to the immediate and permanent end of the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
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Chapter 3: How does this deal affect the conflict in Lebanon?
The second development was the lifting and the end of the naval blockade that the United States had imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was also announced by the US President in his statement. This memorandum of understanding was reached despite our complete distrust of our enemies. We have no trust in the enemy.
Our trust lies in our military strength, our diplomatic capabilities and the support and unity of our own people. That is why the implementation of this memorandum of understanding is extremely important. We have specific plans in place to monitor the implementation of US commitments under this memorandum. Iran's deputy foreign minister. He mentioned there the Pakistani prime minister.
Pakistan has acted as one of the main mediators to end the conflict. That mediation role looks set to continue as this agreement sets out a framework for a further 60 days of talks to hammer out some of the more complicated issues on the table, including details on the possible lifting of sanctions and the future of Iran's nuclear program.
Our Middle East analyst Sebastian Usher joined us from Jerusalem shortly after the agreement was announced.
Interestingly, what the Pakistani prime minister says is that both sides have declared, this is quoting it directly, the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Now, that is a big step. It was the situation in Lebanon that, again, almost derailed this at the last moment when Israel intervened.
bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut that was following the infiltration in northern Israel of several rockets from Hezbollah. That looked for several hours like it was going to spoil President Trump's hopes that the deal would be done and would be able to be announced on his 80th birthday. Well, he has succeeded in that.
But this idea that the war in Lebanon that Israel is waging against Hezbollah will come to an end, I think that's something... which will take a bit of unpacking.
Sebastian, you're speaking to us from Israel.
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Chapter 4: What role does Pakistan play in the U.S.-Iran negotiations?
Has there been any reaction from there so far?
When we're speaking, I mean, we're speaking very shortly after this has just happened. There hasn't been a reaction so far as I've seen, but there's a kind of mute reaction in the sense that there was an anticipation, a fear that Iran would fire missiles overnight. That's face punishment for that attack it carried out on the southern suburbs of Beirut and that it was imminent.
So there was an alert, a higher state of alert that was raised. The Israeli military says that it was prepared offensively and defensively. and a sense that Israel was moving back into the mode of potentially being prepared both to take down those missiles as they came in with its Iron Dome system, but then almost certainly to launch its own wave of strikes.
And that's exactly what happened this time last Sunday. So I think there will be... a sigh of relief over that, because one assumes that's not now going to happen. I mean, in this extraordinary back and forth that we've had, I mean, absolutely, I mean, I think everyone who's been following this is slightly dazed by the whiplash turns.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that that attack could still be carried out. But at the moment, it looks far, far less likely.
You've taken us through some of the challenges still facing the region. We've described this as a deal, but it's more specifically being termed a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. I mean, it's really just the first phase of an agreement, isn't it? Can you take us through what isn't in this deal, what still remains to be agreed?
Some of the information that's been given over the past 24 hours or so, from the Iranian side in particular, has suggested that more may be in this memorandum of understanding than had been anticipated.
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Chapter 5: What are the implications for the Strait of Hormuz reopening?
A senior Iranian official said that it... There was an agreement within it for Iran to dilute its highly enriched uranium, what President Trump has referred to as nuclear dust, inside Iran, rather than, as President Trump had been suggesting, it somehow being taken out of Iran. So that would be quite a big step at this stage.
If that held, that would be one of the big stumbling blocks potentially dealt with. If the conflict in Lebanon, as we were saying, is somehow brought to an end by this, I have to say that I have serious doubts about that because Israel is not a part of this agreement, essentially.
And the Israeli government, the Israeli prime minister, has essentially said that they should continue to have a certain level of freedom in the way that they wage that offensive. Then that would be a big thing as well. We don't know about the billions of dollars that Iran wants unfrozen. They wanted...
a certain amount of that to be unthrown at the beginning of this process within this memorandum of understanding. The latest that we heard from President Trump was that that wouldn't be the case, that it would maybe happen during the process of negotiations that would follow, you know, according to the kind of progress that was made.
We're not sure about that yet, but it may be potentially that this is more of a deal, that it goes further than perhaps people have been expecting. I mean, obviously, we'll find that out more in the coming hours. That would be very helpful, obviously, in terms of the negotiations, which would be seen as very difficult and dealing with the red lines, the main stumbling blocks.
Over the next, some people have talked about, the Iranians particularly have talked about a 60-day period that would follow the signing of this deal. And we've been told the signing will be on the 19th. Things could happen between then, of course. I mean, things have been happening every day that have changed the equation.
Sebastian Usher. As Sebastian mentioned, full details of the deal have not yet been made public, and it's unclear how quickly the Strait of Hormuz might reopen to all traffic.
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Chapter 6: How will this deal impact global oil prices?
At issue is not simply a military ceasefire or an Iranian nuclear agreement, but also the state of the global economy. Our correspondent Joe Inwood told us that prices of key commodities had already started to fall.
The cost of oil, that seems to have gone down. And of course, it's not just oil that is going to be flowing through the Strait of Hormuz when it is opened up. But of course, there's really important things like fertilizer, gas that's used in other countries as well.
Really, a huge amount of the kind of the lifeblood of the global economy will be gradually unblocked and things could start to get back to normal. Of course, all of this is predicated upon not just it being implemented, but it holding. You know, this is definitely, definitely the most optimistic we can feel so far about things starting to get back to normal. But we are not there yet.
There are still uncertainties in this. Still hasn't been signed yet. All sides seem to be moving in the same direction. But I think there are still hurdles that remain.
You mentioned the global economy, Joe, things looking a bit brighter. Donald Trump has been under pressure, hasn't he, domestically to find some way out of this conflict?
Of course, it hasn't escaped people's notice that as well as celebrating the 250th birth of the United States, he's also celebrating his 80th birthday. So clearly this was a day he wanted to get this done. But I think in a more sort of deep political sense, you hit the nail on the head there. He has suffered.
His popularity has suffered, partly because he had promised not to get into wars and clearly has got into a war, but also because Americans are feeling the cost of this in their pockets.
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Chapter 7: What are the challenges facing the implementation of the deal?
You know, the rising cost of whether it's a fertilizer for American farmers or probably more immediately the cost of petrol, of gas to go in their cars. That is something Americans notice. But I think it's really important not to get too fixated on the cost to American consumers. Well, as I was mentioning before, fertilizer, a lot of which goes to the developing world.
That is not getting through as well. And while it's inconvenient for people to have to spend more on petrol, it's really a matter of life and death for other people to be able to grow food. So I think in terms of keeping in perspective, I think that is the impact really that has had the most dramatic effect, if not the one that's had the most impact on President Trump and his popularity.
Just to focus on what's going on inside Iran for a moment, the Iranians have already said that they really want to focus on lifting of sanctions. What do we know about that?
We should say at the time we're speaking just before midnight London time, the details that we've had come out. don't have any mention of either sanctions relief that I've seen or any kind of unfreezing of assets. So Iranian assets that are held in Western countries or in Gulf countries in their banks, those being unfrozen and given back to the Iranians.
I haven't seen at this point any mention of that. It doesn't mean it's not in the deal because the text has not been fully released as we speak, but it hasn't been highlighted by anyone. Whether the sanctions relief is immediate or whether the sanctions relief is phased in, that was always a point of contention. The Iranians wanted to be up front.
The Americans said they wanted sanctions relief to be essentially contingent. tied to what they saw as good behaviour. So whether the sanctions relief is immediate or phased in, it is definitely going to be the direction of travel that we're going in, that there is going to be a sort of a slight lifting of restriction on the Iranian economy, freeing up of some of the assets they have overseas.
As I say, how immediately it happens, we don't know, but it will be happening.
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Chapter 8: What other significant news stories are covered in this episode?
Joe Inwood. And we've seen evidence that some in Iran are trying to portray this agreement as a victory for Tehran. Iran's top military command, Hatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, has said Iranians, together with the country's armed forces and Tehran's proxies and allies in the region, have shown the U.S. and Israel that they have no option but to accept defeat and surrender.
We'll have more analysis from our BBC Persian service later in the podcast.
Still to come in this podcast... With today's decision, the voters have sent a signal in favour of stability, openness and reliability.
Switzerland votes no to capping the size of its population.
Dressman wishes you a happy summer with an amazing campaign.
You get a 30% discount on large choices of shorts and long pants. Perfect for warm summer days.
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Puuilo, how can I help you? I heard some rumors that you're opening a new store. Yes, yes. In the middle of the week we're opening a new store, Vantaan Tammisto.
Yes, I also heard rumors that there would be a makkara offer.
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